UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

They are following earnings though which are better then would be expected in a recession.
Alot of these companies are getting money from abroad, america even.
The miners are rising because of higher prices in their products relative to their costs, it absolutely makes sense to them and we can only discount that by saying its just inflation which it probably is (plus china)

Bad GDP means low interest rates which means weaker currency and more reason for higher prices on stocks ? The main pivot is government policy, they arent applauding bad gdp they are predicting government and bank of england policy I think it must be because it does make little sense otherwise


FTSE100 is dominated by big international business so its not a reflection of uk economy alone

The FTSE had this price in September 1997. Its not exactly madly over performing, the worlds changed alot in 12 years and stock prices have gone nowhere. Then consider CPI over that time and the price has fallen in real terms


I think my rules right now would be stay invested, be involved in companies with international markets / exporters and stick with commoditys


CEY up 5% yesterday and 8% today! nice recovery to all time high
MSFT up 6%, still a long term buy I think most likely
INTC has lost all its gains despite the good results, go figure :think:


Off on hols again, invest in airliners? Imagine what the chinese tourist industry will be like in a few years, god save the queen

tradetime

tonygee wrote: »

Trade,no point in trying to justify these markets,totally out of sync with todays,tomorrows or next years news.Like trying to justify rises in late nineties(at least then economy was getting back to normal),if markets dont follow economy they will come down to earth with a bump.

That is true Tony, in such a case the market would have to adjust, the market always overshoots either on the upside or the downside, and always will. That is a function of the "Johnny Come Lately s" but my point is the market rarely trades on todays news, not that it should or shouldn't be where it is today.

On the subject of fundamentals, markets never follow the economy, not in the way people expect, the "economy" is fundamentals, markets lead on expectations for the most part.
If the market simply followed the economy there's no way the S&P would be up 60% from the lows, current fundamentals do not justify such a rise, hence novice traders are getting killed shorting every rally, if you read around blogs and forums they are full of guys who have been shorting this market since about 800 level, with the mournful cry of "The fundamentals don't support this rally." They are of course right, they don't, but what they fail to recognize is that the market and the fundamentals are rarely on the same page

Of course there has to be a moment of truth, whilst the market anticipates, sooner or later the fundamentals must move to support, or the market must adjust to what reality unfolds. I personally never try to justify the market based on the current fundamentals, nor my trades, fundamentals are a lagging indicator. If for example we imagine just for a minute we can see the future, and it's all rosey, big snap back V shaped recovery, so say in 6 - 12 months the fundamentals do indeed justify where the market is now, by that time the market will be about 20 - 30% higher, so they still won't justify where it is.
Put another way, if you think back to the March low, the fundamentals were horrible and getting worse, the world as we knew it was coming to an end, pundits were calling for S&P to go to 400, Dow 4,000 and yet the market turned and started its climb, it was a while before the fundamentals started to improve.

tradetime

Anyhow Im off on HOLS Best of luck to all:beer:

Safe travels, and hope you have a GREAT time!

turbobob

tradetime wrote: »

The media are very good at convincing us that the current news is the driver, but that is hardly surprising since otherwise Bloomberg and CNBC are surplus to requirement, and in fairness we are all a bit guilty of it, since at one time or another we have all said; "Oh the market is selling off on a bad report." or something like that, it makes things easy to rationalize and we like that.

Interesting points. I agree, we want to look for reasons to explain and rationalise what is happening because then it becomes more predictable. This bit of news did seem to have an effect on the forex market with a decline in sterling at the time of the news release. I guess to take one of your other points you could twist the news to fit and explain what is happening. You could argue the decline in UK GDP means its less likely for the stimulus program to be reduced, and the market likes government stimulus... Similarly it was reported that the rapid growth in the China economy recently concerned the markets, for that reason.

I also agree with STT's comments that the FTSE100 is not really about the UK economy.

uk_steve

have a good Holiday Tony ;-)

sabretoothtigger

Pity Tony has gone away, I know he likes to buy stocks which have fallen alot for their recovery potential.

Hardy gas & oil HDY fell 42% on friday and seems to have landed on a ledge of support in the price maybe at 320p
These guys give them a target of 420p. Indian Oil explorers basically, India is a net importer of oil but a largely insular (growing) economy I think
http://www.sharecrazy.com/beta/tips/2734






FTSE will have a negative day tommorow I presume. Since Hardy already took a tumble maybe it'll rise as a bullish bet by traders but Im not certain of their longer term worth at all



BHP still seems cheap. BP and Shell reports this week




Marketwatch | Foreign Exchange Rates | HiFX plc


http://snippets.com/what-is-the-gdp-per-capita-for-every-country.htm



edit:
I remember why the name rung a bell now, this guy likes them though of course Im uncertain why at present http://nakedtrader.co.uk/trades.htm

CHAR wrote:

Its all licences are renewed till end 2011. PB to start operations from next month.
See the link below, this guy has explained the CHAR potential better than I could:
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AGKP.L&display=discussion&action=detail&id=5419409

"Another find, another GKP
Two months back when I shared one of my finds GKP (trading 10p-14p that time), everyone marked me down but those who bought that time have nearly 10 bagged within two months.
Here is another find, another GKP. In fact better than GKP in some aspects. This share is still in its 52 weekly lows & I wondered why its so low. If you look on LSE website for oil & gas sector companies, then CHAR is not shown under C, so mostly left by researchers. Also not mentioned at all by digital look on its list of companies, so mostly seems ignored or left out.
On 8th June 2009, its share touched a 52 week low of 16p (offer) & it has almost remained there since then.

See following about it:

1. Good management, debt free, cash rich
2. Underexplored area with oil seeping out from the ground. (last line, Page 5 of http://www.chariotoilandgas.com/chariot/investor_relations/reports_documents/2009/petrobas_09/petrobas_09_09.pdf)
3. Farmed out with Petrobras, Brazil, 6th biggest company of world.
4. still at 52 weekly lows
5. market cap nearly at present cash reserve (net cash of 26mln+)
6. cash reserve can increase by 100 mln (read RNS in next point & also read farm out agreement from its website www.chariotoilandgas.com)
7. It own share of oil around 4.09 billion BOE ( para 9 from top of http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-news/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=10180728)
8. Its share of oil is more than the oil attributable to GKP
9. Management recently stated that they have enough cash for exploration as well as production, so no fear of raising cash (3rd para from last of above link)
10. Only 141 mln shares in issue.
11. Safer place to work than middle east (hedge against Iran/middle east war)
12. Petrobras to start it operations from November 2009 (next month)
13. Huge oil reserves found in the nearby areas (see the map on the company’s website www.chariotoilandgas.com)"

Use this link to judge whose going to enter the FTSE100, Tate I mentioned before is very likely. Probably quite smart to buy companies due to join the index? Templeton could enter in future I reckon
http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php



Long list of 'cheap' stocks here, working off reported fundamentals. http://blog.iii.co.uk/reward-without-the-risk/

cloud_dog

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

BHP still seems cheap.

Thats interesting. I am in two minds over whether to expect a pull back in resource stocks, only because of possible $ strength.

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

BP and Shell reports this week

Bought in to RDSB (around £14.40) as part of a slow (very slow slow migration in to a dividend producing element for my portfolio but looking at the price today I am wondering if we are reaching a point of resistance (around the £18.50 - £18.80) level. Als othere is low and failing volume for RDBS so.............. I should stick to my guns and sell for the short-term.

Dan_S_3

cashbackproblems wrote: »

Definately if your holding long term in the banks you will be rewarded, lloyd and rbs will take longer than barclays who i bought into today. I bought in the last 6 months so am not holding with average price of £3.00 for RBS as some are, but i will top up on these 2 after the RI when i expect them to drop short term.

Barclays also are a steal at current sp of £3.60-70 and will rocket next month when they announce xcellent profits and will be paying a dividend then.

So as a newbee, if i want to purchase a few hundred quids worth of Barclays shares. How do i go about it?

Where do i buy them from? How does it work?
How can i later sell them? Charges?

turbobob

Dan_S wrote: »

So as a newbee, if i want to purchase a few hundred quids worth of Barclays shares. How do i go about it?

Where do i buy them from? How does it work?
How can i later sell them? Charges?

Lots of ways but the cheapest would likely be through an online stockbroker. There is an article here however it's not up to date. If you are not going to trade frequently beware of accounts with inactivity fees, and accounts like Selftrade which now have an annual admin fee. Halifax Sharedealing and iii.co.uk are regularly mentioned as a cheap provider, which might be worth having a look at.

sabretoothtigger

dan google iii and ask them to help you out, they are pretty helpful and will deal barclays shares on the common market if you like, selling is similar kind of auction system and you pay iii £10 in fees each way.


A point about barclays would be they have dropped below their 360 support. It shows as significance on the charts but so long as you dont expect to make money on them soon its no problem as they have longer term growth potential from lehmans and other international assets

cloud_dog wrote: »

Thats interesting. I am in two minds over whether to expect a pull back in resource stocks, only because of possible $ strength.

Bought in to RDSB (around £14.40) as part of a slow (very slow slow migration in to a dividend producing element for my portfolio but looking at the price today I am wondering if we are reaching a point of resistance (around the £18.50 - £18.80) level. Als othere is low and failing volume for RDBS so.............. I should stick to my guns and sell for the short-term.

I just think they are cheap in investment terms, trading wise they have made a nice gain now probably because of the weak dollar like you say.

I think its a good hedge and they'll be able to pay that dividend even if the price drops

rdsb is listed as one of those cheap shares on a link I gave above

I got a few shares that have risen since July but I dont want to sell if they have growth potential still, mainly that comes from abroad imo. So Ive clipped the more cyclical or uk based shares instead

Important notice regarding US markets

Due to a one week difference between the end of British Summer Time in the UK and the end of Daylight Saving in the US. The NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX markets will open at 13:30, and close at 20:00 GMT this week.

HARDY fell again today but is still roughly around the 300 area so could be worse. I had a look at their background and they seem decent, not just pie in the sky but a gamble all the same.
I put them on my list as I like their potential however Im not confident enough to chase them especially if oil is dropping but I might setup a regular buy on them since Im not confident what their true price is. Worth a look though

They have more then one project ongoing and at least one was recently successful hence the price rise occured around this area in May I think. They might well turn around soon but short term speculators have been burnt