UK Stockmarket 2009 and beyond

sabretoothtigger

The way they sold off their bad mortgage debt was pretty significant to the valuation I guess, it was just surprising that was so easy for them to do.
UBS did something similar, splitting off bad debt but they were helped by government

Watch xlf for the banks, it fell sharply in 30 mins last night so I guess thats a negative for them today

longterm nobody knows but barclays is an investment bank and lloyds is practically a building society

Shares in EMED Mining* (EMED) should almost quadruple according to Fox-Davies Capital. On the back of an EMED update on its Slovak gold activities, Fox-Davies reiterated its “buy” stance at 11.75p with a target price of 45p. The broker commented that the company was in the process of exploring a number of new sites for mining, with much larger systems in prospect than those previously explored at Biely Vrch.


Gambling software developer Playtech (PTEC) saw its shares gain 10.25p to 352.25p after it rolled out its key performance indicators for the third quarter, ended 30th September 2009. Gross income for the first nine months of 2009 increased by 24% to 98.8 million euros. Revenues in the third quarter were flat at 27.7 million euro. The company launched the first two iPhone compatible casino games in the three month period, as well as a new version of its poker software, available in pounds, US dollars and euros, which allows players to enjoy the game in their local currency and bypass the currency conversion process. Broker Daniel Stewart maintained its 496p target price.

How come you have 80% in GKP ricll, nothing else of interest to you?
I heard just today that 75% of buffets portfolio has always been in just 5 stocks so I guess just a few stocks can work but Im against just having one.

GKP wrote:

From the Fox Davies report dated the 12 October 2010

"The Company also intends to publish the results of an independent certification of the heavy oil reserves at Shaikan within the next week or two. The report will not include the lighter Triassic hydrocarbons and will be updated for that section later on after completion of the well."

So we should have an rns by 26 October at the latest.

Shaikan-1 is progressing well and is expected to be completed this month, with less than 1,000m remaining to be drilled. Progress is slowed down by the amount of evaluation work that is to be done as it moves down to TD. Clearly the well is encountering numerous hydrocarbon zones along the way and this bodes well for hydrocarbon volume estimates (Exhibit-1).

The full report.

http://www.fox-davies.com/media/79997/fdcgkpoct122009.pdf

GKP wrote:

12:13GMT 21Oct2009-Gulf Keystone down after MOL comment on well

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Shares in Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LSE: GKP.L - news) fall more than 20 percent following Tuesday's rally to an all-time high after its partner, Hungarian oil and gas firm MOL, says caution is needed in estimating oil reserves at an Iraqi exploration well.
'The market took a bit of a fright from that (the MOL comments). I wouldn't read too much into it,' says Lionel Therond, an analyst with Fox-Davies Capital.
'The stock has been running up quite strongly and expectations have been built up in the price,' he adds.
Therond, who maintains a 'Buy' stance with a target price of 175 pence, is expecting a third party report imminently from Gulf Keystone, which has a 75 percent stake in the Shaikan-1 well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUH-3RNnq44

tradetime

Nice pickup in volatility yesterday in US with a late day reversal closing near the lows. So far all the pullbacks have been very shallow, with the vast majority bought up at the 25% retrace level which is exactly where we closed yesterday, be interesting to see if there is a little more appetite for some downside, or are buyers still desperate to be long this market.
Earnings have continued to show a now all too familiar theme, handily beating the bottom line, but the majority still coming up short on the revenue, at this stage there really can't be much fat left on the bone.

tradetime

Well I guess we have our answer, people are indeed desperate to be long this market, a brief early dip below the 25% retrace was fiercely bought up to close near the highs, so the prevalent philosophy of the past 6 months remains intact all dips are buying opportunities, at least it's consistent.

sabretoothtigger

Yea I hear you on the dips but this is confusing to me except this reversal was due to exceptional earnings apparently which is fair enough if the news warrants it

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eShzqufFhvA

Amazon is up 15% after hours, seems all will be positive so long as Microsoft is perceived to be reporting well tomorrow.
They are just releasing another OS, its a case of less bad there also imo but I didnt see anything revolutionary in it when I tried it out. I roughly think MS is good to hold, undervalued even




Anyone have an interest in HGM ? Highland Gold
I saw them tipped and the research sounded good, market cap of 300m with net cash of 100m alot like some of the March valuations on companies I remember

Nice pickup in volatility yesterday in US with a late day reversal closing near the lows.

and right back down again with this rise. VIX is an inverse indicator of risk?

In this july rally we've been stuck in a range of 10 on the VIX which is less variation then summer of 08. However if we look at 2003 the vix became much calmer in the recovery at that time compared to the spikes in vix 2000 till 03 so I guess that proves me wrong

tradetime

Yea I hear you on the dips but this is confusing to me except this reversal was due to exceptional earnings apparently which is fair enough if the news warrants it

By and large I am one of those of the view that to a large degree most news, of the recurrent nature is already in the market, the good earnings news was of no surprise to the market, as I said before earnings started, and without the benefit of the information available to the big players, I did not expect any major nasty surprises from earnings, and that has been how it has played out.
However, that does not mean that we cannot get unexpected news which may have dramatic effects. Yesterdays reversal, was in fact a reversal of a reversal That being the late day selloff caused by a heavyweight banking analyst, !!!!!! Bove, making comments live on air about Wells Fargo which did catch people by surprise. Bove first, as would have been expected praised the bank, then turned around and downgraded it :rotfl::rotfl: Needless to say that caused a speed wobble.
Yesterday was just back to business as usual, the earnings showcased the multi-nationals such as McD and 3M and the benefit of a US$ in the toilet.
For me the more interesting thing was the dramatic effect Bove's comments had. Given we are against the backdrop of a seeming strong bull market, and earnings across the board are coming out "good" by our new definition it is interesting to see the effects a relatively minor unexpected event has, and how jumpy people still are.

On the earnings front, this one was of most interest to me. UPS is by nature of what it does, one of those companies in the middle of everything, they and FedEx should be one of the barometers of the progress of the US recovery.

turbobob

I'm confused. Some pretty poor UK economic news announced http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aA4yuANivXCQ - which seems to have completely gone against all the analysts predictions. The market ignores it and FTSE climbs 60+ points (at time of writing). The pound has however fallen following the news. Six months ago I'd seen patterns of negative news being followed by climbs and had assumed this was down to armageddon being priced into the markets at the time. This is not really the case now, is it?

tradetime

News is a bit of a red herring in financial markets, it's only really of use to the financial media to explain what they can't really explain, namely why the markets are doing what they are doing.
Fact is markets are reacting to news of the future, that they speculate on, and in many cases they have inside information on, there are of course news events that catch the market off guard sometimes, the so called "Black Swan" events, also on occasion the magnitude of news that is already factored in may have been over, or underestimated and an adjustment is required.
If you follow news, you can always find a reason amongst the news stories to explain why the market is doing whatever it is doing, and even if you can't find an obvious reason, you can look at the news, that suggests it should be doing the opposite, and with a different take use it to explain why the market is in fact doing what it is doing.
The media are very good at convincing us that the current news is the driver, but that is hardly surprising since otherwise Bloomberg and CNBC are surplus to requirement, and in fairness we are all a bit guilty of it, since at one time or another we have all said; "Oh the market is selling off on a bad report." or something like that, it makes things easy to rationalize and we like that.

tonygee_3

turbobob wrote: »

I'm confused. Some pretty poor UK economic news announced

Yeah,its only the worst recession since records began(yawn) City boys must be sprinkling dodgy substances on their conflakes,living in cuckooland.

tonygee_3

Trade,no point in trying to justify these markets,totally out of sync with todays,tomorrows or next years news.Like trying to justify rises in late nineties(at least then economy was getting back to normal),if markets dont follow economy they will come down to earth with a bump.

tonygee_3

Todays rally followed on from positive DOW and continued cos everyone was convinced GDP would be positive.But despite terrible figs and negative DOW carries on as if nothing has happened??
Anyhow Im off on HOLS Best of luck to all:beer: