Recession, where are we.

StevieJ

3/4 the way through

tomterm8 wrote: »

I think you are probably right. I tend to think that a recession - in terms of GDP falls- ends at the point where unemployment is highest. But of course it can take many years for things to go back to normal.

It helps if everyone is singing from the same hymn sheet on when a recession starts and finishes, in my book it is when GDP falls and rises, unemployment can carry on increasing well beyond that.

Dan:_4

Middle

The recession started long before it was made official. It will end like that too.

tomterm8

Middle

StevieJ wrote: »

It helps if everyone is singing from the same hymn sheet on when a recession starts and finishes, in my book it is when GDP falls and rises, unemployment can carry on increasing well beyond that.

Well, as you know, there is no internationally agreed definition of what a recession is. The UK tends to go with negative growth, lots of european countries go with peak-to-trough GDP (so the economy can return to growth, but next quarter if the GDP is negative, it's still in recession). America has its own method of determining recessions which is basically "it's a recession when we say so"

The problem with relying on GDP declines is that you can see a positive growth in GDP simply from inventory accumulation and removing negative factors - like the fact housing and car sales have to increase, because they are at a very low base. This means GDP growth can go positive, but you are still way below the natural rate of growth, and you can have a period of over a year where the output gap is still widening.

StevieJ

3/4 the way through

tomterm8 wrote: »

The problem with relying on GDP declines is that you can see a positive growth in GDP simply from inventory accumulation and removing negative factors - l.

And visa-versa i.e. the the UK had a large stock drawdown in Q4 as part of the -1.6%. When we see stock build up it will only be cancelling out that drawdown.

geoffky

Only Just Started

oh you are all so wet between the ears you are having your first recession.....we are just starting this one and the pain has not yet began.... this is the big one whether we like it or not..

geoffky

Only Just Started

Dan: wrote: »

The recession started long before it was made official. It will end like that too.

dan how old are you???

whathavewedone

Middle

I'm 38 and remember the last two recessions and I agree with Dan for what it's worth. I think he's old enough to remember the 90s recession as an adult from what he's said in previous posts.

Did you really suffer in the last recession? Just because you did doesn't mean everyone did.

A lot of people came out of the last one unscathed -this will be no different.

I voted for half way through. We were in recession way before we were officially told and we will start to come out of it by next year.

Pobby

Middle

whathavewedone wrote: »

I'm 38 and remember the last two recessions and I agree with Dan for what it's worth. I think he's old enough to remember the 90s recession as an adult from what he's said in previous posts.

Did you really suffer in the last recession? Just because you did doesn't mean everyone did.

A lot of people came out of the last one unscathed -this will be no different.

I voted for half way through. We were in recession way before we were officially told and we will start to come out of it by next year.

In the last recession we bore the burden of very high interest rates, very different from now. The debtors are being bailed out.

Thrugelmir

Middle

1echidna wrote: »

Unfortunately I feel we are on a knife's edge. Banks' financial problems have been transferred to the state and it is not yet clear that the state can carry the burden.

Unlikely that the UK will declared bankrupt so the burden will fall on us.

As the £ has been depreciated against both the Dollar and the Euro has meant that the banks liabilities have been greatly reduced.

Although a lot has been said about the banks. Standard Chartered, HSBC and Barclays are all in reasonable shape. LloydsTSB excluding the HBOS business was run soundly. So providing RBS can be broken up and sold off fairly quickly, the liability for the taxpayer will have reduced significantly to more manageable levels. Under the guise of the smokescreen of recession the banks are quietly rebuilding their balance sheets on the back of improved lending margins.

bluey890

Really2 wrote: »

As the title says where do people think we are.

I am parked up in a local romantic hotspot, typing away on my little netbook.

Hold-on, someone's knocking on the window.