Recession, where are we.

kennyboy66_2

3/4 the way through

I think we are getting close to the bottom. I think the economy will shrink in Q3 (Q1 & Q2 being a given) this year, and grow a small amount in Q4 (less than 0.5%).

I do think any recovery will be drawn out and stuttering. Growth of below trend (2%) for a few years, hence unemployment will keep on rising (3-3.5 million) and it could be 4 or 5 years before it gets below 2 million again.

Credit expansion
Govt spending
Immigration

that fuelled the boom, all set to go into reverse.

Stagnant nominal house prices from Q1 2010 for 3 years masking real drops after inflation.

Dan:_4

Middle

misskool wrote: »

I only vote in anonymous polls

Where's the fun in that?

kborom

Only Just Started

Still near the beginning for me, I think the "real" situation is still hidden by the knee-jerk bail-outs that have been thrown around for the last few months, and only when the full scale of debt we are in is clear will we be able to plan to get out of it.
It's going to take a while though and one thing is clear to me, when we do get out of this it will be a very different financial world we are in.

StevieJ

3/4 the way through

Been a few green shoots today :T

Investors in European stocks should increasingly favor manufacturing, technology and other industries that rely on economic growth as the global recession eases, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
“Recent data makes us more confident the worst in the economic cycle is past, and we further move towards cyclicals from defensives,” a team of London-based strategists led by Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a report dated yesterday. “Our strategy is to trade the cycles as they emerge, but be nimble as we may need to make more frequent sector changes than typically following a trough.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=ayyLMHiYXZFk&refer=home

ad9898_3

1/4 the way through

I voted a 1/4 way through, although I think I'm being a little optimistic, wishful thinking if you like. the problem we have, is the credit binge/bubble was so big it will take longer and be more painful than for a lot of other countries, the whole of the 'naughties' has to unwind, that means the credit and housing bubbles.

However if it was just that things wouldn't be too bad, the problem is we have the huge tax burden that we will have to bare as well whilst we try and struggle out of recession.

As far as the world goes oil will certainly rise as demand tries to ramp up which will cause inflation, which will in turn will cause interest rates to rise, causing the economy further problems.

A triple whammy then for the UK, causing us severe problems going into the future. Any signs of recovery now, are merely a dead cat bounce, as none of the issues I have mentioned have played out yet, when they do, we will be closer to the end.

purch

Only Just Started

Been a few green shoots today

Are you being paid by the "Link" by Bloomberg ??? :rotfl:

StevieJ

3/4 the way through

I think a definate sign of the bottom is misskool bannishing more and more threads to the Winter hinterland.

StevieJ

3/4 the way through

purch wrote: »

Are you being paid by the "Link" by Bloomberg ??? :rotfl:

No It is just a good day on there, not had many recently No new tread this time though.

Dan:_4

Middle

When geofky starts to make stuff up, your're know the bottom is near.

tomterm8

Middle

misskool wrote: »

I only vote in anonymous polls

But I think we're not halfway through it yet.

I think you are probably right. I tend to think that a recession - in terms of GDP falls- ends at the point where unemployment is highest. But of course it can take many years for things to go back to normal.