What’ll happen to house prices? poll discussion

giger

And don't forget how this can affect you if you are sitting here thinking I can still afford my mortgage and you are not unduly concerned right now - whilst you might be enticed into a good SVR/tracker/whatever don't forget that if house prices continue to drop then your LTV also drops meaning you might end up being stuck with your current mortgage product - not a good situation to be in if and when interest rates start to climb. Also if you need to remortage anytime in the next 12 months your LTV could also be seriously hit as chances are you took out the previous mortgage in the 'glory days'.

Easy to overlook these thinks and think purely of house prices and overlook your own LTV.

mrp45

real or nominal fall? i expect inflation to increase strongly, so that makes a huge difference!

HexusOdy

I voted for a 5-10% drop as I think its the most likely outcome. I don't think even the most clued up financial experts can predict with any kind of accuracy what is going to happen to the economy and thus housing prices over the next 12 months.

I still think there are alot of bombshells to be dropped yet in regards to some banks being in a worse position that is thought and large companies going bust unexpectedly leading to more unemployment.

On the other hand I think there are going to be more bailouts and new initiatives to boost certain areas of the economy that will counteract some of that.

The short story is, the average young couple buying a house will earn around 45k per year combined income meaning the average house price will need to be £135,000. Thats around 10% less than current, which is where I think it will go.

But who knows!

rag31

Who are these people voting for rises? I did.

I don't know, nobody does, I hear people talking out of their a**es on the radio/on telly/on here when in truth nobody really knows what is going to happen in the next year.

The sad thing is that so many people are so happy about everything going to pot, sitting smugly rubbing hands together and saying 'I told you so'. Did they never learn what a horrible quality this is in a person?

For us, we are in a fixed rate for another 18 months and then if things are the same we are !!!!!!ed because our LTV has gone through the floor. We are always on the verge of bankruptcy anyway and this might be the thing to tip us over, but there is no use spending the next 18 months cacking ourselves about it.

rag31

Sorry, I'm obviously in a very gung-ho mood today - blame my hormones!

SunnySusie

mewbie wrote: »

Biggest bubble in the world. 18 months behind the States where they are still dropping.
Worst placed country in world to see out recession.
Tax bombshell AND public spending cuts coming up your street soon.
Unemployment forecast to hit 3.5 million in a year.

Yes we all know that bad things are happening, but how do we know what the effect is? I don't think anyone is saying it is all rosey out there but nothing is connected on a 1 to 1 basis. Sometimes little changes can have big effects, sometimes small changes have large effects! The boom happened with millions unemployed, how can anyone say that x number = boom and y number = crash?!

Given that keeping a roof over ones head is normally a priority and the last thing to be cut from out personal budgets I'd say that it is the most resistant. The most vulnerable are also probably not home owners.

Those that own the type of house I'm after are probably the most secure, older wealthy people in nice suburban areas. As always, nice houses in nice parts of the country will probably hold up fairly well.

I think prices will carry on down, but at a slow steady rate. As much as I want the houses I am after to plummet - it's just not happening right now. There are so few on the market and people still want to move to nice areas. I follow the property sites everyday and the good houses are shifting fast.

wheresmydoshat

A. Increase over 20%.
B. Increase 10-20%.
C. Increase 5-10%.
D. Increase 2-5%.

:rotfl:

wheresmydoshat

"The sad thing is that so many people are so happy about everything going to pot, sitting smugly rubbing hands together and saying 'I told you so'. Did they never learn what a horrible quality this is in a person?"

i said this before and i'll say it again, this is because (some) homeowners were smugly rubbing their hands together, and rubbing it in, that they were making silly money on their houses. there was always a reason to mention how much they'd made on their house, it was like a competition.

now the game is over (for now)

npw32jnw

Ok, so I voted for about the same. Couple of reasons why. The market has dropped 20%, so houses that were out of the reach of purchasers (esp FTBs) are now starting to get there. Also, for 6 mths or so, banks have been reluctant to lend to anyone, therefore no-one could get mortgages in place to think about purchasing. Now that banks are (very slowly) starting to get themselves in motion and lend again, and prices are more in line with what buyers want to pay, the market should start to level off (IMHO!) Also because interest rates are so low now, better deals are out there.
As people have mentioned, people are still losing their jobs but are doing everything in their power to keep their homes (whether or not the waste of time policies of this current govt actually help them to do this or not). Remember that house prices are based on what people are willing to spend on it, and seeing a 20% drop in prices, purchasers are coming back to the marketplace. Yes, they may start to try and negotiate even further reductions, but sellers will be less likely to go much further down when they have already seen the asking price drop significantly.

At the end of the day, no-one knows what house prices will do this year until Dec 31st - in the meantime we all just look at the data and draw our own conclusions.

rickbonar

People are losing their jobs and you the government are not making it any easier for British citizens by letting foreign workers in to do jobs very cheaply. Remember the Italians recently brought to work in a oil refinery in Lincolnshire. Not to mention the Polish and Bulgarians that have had a negative impact on wages in Britain.

I remember vividly a woman interviewed on TV who had a Cafe and was employing Polish staff gushing the virtues of how the Polish workers worked "so hard" and "you couldn't get them to sit down" and english workers were lazy and "you couldn't get them to stand up".

No one pointed out to this woman ... Try setting up your Cafe in Warsaw and see how you get on there with your business!
Try charging £1.80 a coffee there Madam!

That's right as average wage in Bulgaria is £25 per week. Similar in Poland. Now is it any wonder they're so eager to come here?

Someone will no doubt gas on about how their relative costs also are higher here ... yes slightly but when 15 people share a flat and it's bubble squeakski every night not so. Especially when you are saving the Zloty for home to retire.

For us this again hasn't helped as it's hard for many to get far beyond the minimum wage. When you've got that mortgage to pay and your house value is dropping.
Don't forget savers are going withdraw and start putting their loot in offshore and foreign banks too.

Who's going to be buying the houses that are some on this board think will be going up in value?

I think a good start would be for the UK to leave the EU asap and if we're going to use foreign workers licence them for 6 month contracts.

It's time we had also fast track deportation scheme for illegal immigrants. (after they've been made to work on paying community service projects to pay for their air fares back first though).

Asylum rules should be strictly adhered to also ..ie. the "refugee" must be returned to the nearest neighbouring country from their origin. (again with the above work scheme).
The Conservatives have hinted at scrapping the obligations involved with asylum and also the race relations bill. I think they will have a walkover victory if they make this pivotal policy.

A hotline like the benefits hotline in fact I think actually use the benefits hotline to report illegal immigrants and companies that employ them.

Non compliant immigrants ... something which could actually be a new crime punishable by 35 years in a Vietnam prison.
My solution for the Prison crisis... pay a country like Vietnam to take our prisoners. Of course they will have to abide by the local regulations ie Vietnams.

Massive fines and the threat of enforced bankruptcy on employers that use illegal workers. With criminal and long prison sentences too.
The Vietnam or Singapore prisons for drug pushers and people traffickers is an excellent solution as some of the British prisons are more like 2 star hotel.
Asset seizure is a must too.