We're aware that some users are experiencing technical issues which the team are working to resolve. See the Community Noticeboard for more info. Thank you for your patience.
📨 Have you signed up to the Forum's new Email Digest yet? Get a selection of trending threads sent straight to your inbox daily, weekly or monthly!

What’ll happen to house prices? poll discussion

Options
Former_MSE_Wendy
Former_MSE_Wendy Posts: 929 Forumite
I've been Money Tipped! Newshound! PPI Party Pooper Chutzpah Haggler
edited 14 April 2009 at 10:54AM in MoneySaving polls
Poll between 06-14 April 09.

What’ll happen to house prices?

Over the last year according to Nationwide house prices have dropped 15.7% while Halifax says 17.5% Yet in the last month Nationwide has reported a rise of 0.9%, compared to Halifax's 1.9% drop.

Sentiment is a crucial part of house prices e.g. when people think they’ll drop, many hold off from buying, meaning less demand and prices do drop.

So what do you think will happen to UK house prices over the next 12 months?

A. Increase over 20%. 1% (114 votes)
B. Increase 10-20%. 2% (163 votes)
C. Increase 5-10%. 6% (592 votes)
D. Increase 2-5%. 18% (1848 votes)
E. No real change. 21% (2167 votes)
F. Decrease 2-5%. 14% (1515 votes)
G. Decrease 5-10%. 17% (1753 votes)
H. Decrease 10-20% (smaller crash). 11% (1187 votes)
I. Decrease over 20% (crash). 6% (671 votes)
J. I really have no idea. 5% (475 votes)

Voting has now closed, but you can still click 'post reply to discuss below. Thanks :)

[threadbanner]box[/threadbanner]
*** Get the Martin's Money Tips Free E-mail at www.moneysavingexpert.com/tips ***
«13456

Comments

  • Gorgeous_George
    Gorgeous_George Posts: 7,964 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    edited 6 April 2009 at 6:56PM
    I think the rate of change varies throughout different regions of the UK. In areas of high turnover (e.g., London) the rate of change is greatest and these areas will reach the bottom first. Other areas will be slower to fall but will continue to fall when the faster falling places start to recover. However, they may not fall as far as confidence returns once the press start reporting a recovery.

    I think prices have to fall by between 40% and 50% in total so there is a long way to go. Once they reach bottom, future rises will be moreorless in line with inflation. Interest rates will no longer determine house prices.

    It is different this time. In the late 80s/early 90s the crash was caused by interest rate movements. The extremely crude policy of using interest rates to control inflation will have to be abandoned and a more long term approach through controlling the money supply will be employed.

    FTBer homes cannot cost more than 3 to 4 x average FTB salary.

    GG
    There are 10 types of people in this world. Those who understand binary and those that don't.
  • lostinrates
    lostinrates Posts: 55,283 Forumite
    I've been Money Tipped!
    I'm glad some people feel positive enough that the huge economic mess we are in will dealt with enough within the next year to vote for an increase in prices. :)

    I think they are probably wrong, but there you go.
  • Cleaver
    Cleaver Posts: 6,989 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    I'm going to make a prediction at what the graph of this poll may look like once everyone on this board has voted:

    houseprice2.jpg

    Anyway, I'm going for H if we're talking 12 months from now.
  • mewbie_2
    mewbie_2 Posts: 6,058 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Just saying what I think will happen carries very little weight, I am just a poster after all. So I'd rather say what my gleaned 'knowledge' from various sources is before stating the obvious.

    Biggest bubble in the world. 18 months behind the States where they are still dropping.
    Worst placed country in world to see out recession.
    Tax bombshell AND public spending cuts coming up your street soon.
    Unemployment forecast to hit 3.5 million in a year.

    Yep, it's crash all the way as far as I can see.
  • lostinrates
    lostinrates Posts: 55,283 Forumite
    I've been Money Tipped!
    edited 6 April 2009 at 6:57PM
    Cleaver wrote: »
    I'm going to make a prediction at what the graph of this poll may look like once everyone on this board has voted:
    .


    Maybe, but right now you are way out. :confused:


    Which as well as making me happy, makes me kind of worry.

    I'm not normally so sour, but I can't help wondering if these are the people who think they will be ok without doing their seatbelts up, or the ones who don't protect themselves against STIs. I bet they all have safe jobs too.

    I think I need a cup of tea, I'm being very un-me ish. :(
  • Cleaver
    Cleaver Posts: 6,989 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Maybe, but right now you are way out. :confused:


    Which as well as making me happy, makes me kind of worry.

    I'm not normally so sour, but I can't help wondering if these are the people who think they will be ok without doing their seatbelts up, or the ones who don't protect themselves against STIs.

    I think I need a cup of tea, I'm being very un-me ish. :(

    I suppose that the general public will see what's going on as a 'blip'. I wouldn't be arrogant enough to suggest that this is because of ignorance or anything, I think it's probably because most people don't 'join the dots' as Mewbie as done above.

    Can't comment on the STIs, but maybe Mr Broderick will be about later to comment. Seems to be a subject I imagine to be 'up his alley' (no pun intended).
  • JonnyBravo
    JonnyBravo Posts: 4,103 Forumite
    Mortgage-free Glee!
    Yep I'm with the mighty Cleaver. H. 10-20%
  • ad9898_3
    ad9898_3 Posts: 3,858 Forumite
    I would expect H, to be the answer, however this time around sentiment is not crucial, prices got so out of hand that financial institutions collapsed (I know, I know it started in America.:D), the banks will not lend to everyone, regardless of if people want to buy.
  • rickbonar
    rickbonar Posts: 448 Forumite
    With businesses going bust at a rate quicker than in living memory, people are being laid off and redundant as a result.
    Wages are not going up and banks aren't lending ... in particular to house buyers.

    Even the banks and building societies that are lending are sticking with the 3 to 4 times your annual income rule (really what they should have done from word go)... fine if you're a banker, lawyer, doctor or politician: but if you're NOT already a millionaire and in an average job... the average wage being around £24,000 that makes you if you can get a mortgage only capable of getting a maximum of around £95,000...
    This might just buy you a garage or a decent caravan.


    Most sellers won't drop their prices as they’re gambling the house price saga is just a blip but I fear prices have got a long way to drop yet. Buyers don’t want to buy something that is dropping in value and due to drop as much as half again.
  • ad44downey
    ad44downey Posts: 2,246 Forumite
    rickbonar wrote: »
    With businesses going bust at a rate quicker than in living memory, people are being laid off and redundant as a result.
    Wages are not going up and banks aren't lending ... in particular to house buyers.

    Even the banks and building societies that are lending are sticking with the 3 to 4 times your annual income rule (really what they should have done from word go)... fine if you're a banker, lawyer, doctor or politician: but if you're NOT already a millionaire and in an average job... the average wage being around £24,000 that makes you if you can get a mortgage only capable of getting a maximum of around £95,000...
    This might just buy you a garage or a decent caravan.


    Most sellers won't drop their prices as they’re gambling the house price saga is just a blip but I fear prices have got a long way to drop yet. Buyers don’t want to buy something that is dropping in value and due to drop as much as half again.
    So true. It has all the hallmarks of a bull trap. I wonder how many people are going to get caught out by it.........
    Krusty & Phil Madoff, 1990 - 2007:
    "Buy now because house prices only ever go UP, UP, UP."
This discussion has been closed.
Meet your Ambassadors

🚀 Getting Started

Hi new member!

Our Getting Started Guide will help you get the most out of the Forum

Categories

  • All Categories
  • 351K Banking & Borrowing
  • 253.1K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
  • 453.6K Spending & Discounts
  • 244K Work, Benefits & Business
  • 598.9K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
  • 176.9K Life & Family
  • 257.3K Travel & Transport
  • 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
  • 16.1K Discuss & Feedback
  • 37.6K Read-Only Boards

Is this how you want to be seen?

We see you are using a default avatar. It takes only a few seconds to pick a picture.