What’ll happen to house prices? poll discussion

ad9898_3

mitchaa wrote: »

I thought i was a bull voting for 5-10% down this year, but looking at the poll results there are over 500 that have voted for less so there appears to be far more bulls than bears. Perhaps im a bear then?

Interesting results, 9 people so far have voted for 20% up, i like the optimism

An interesting observation Mitch, seeing as we have far less than 500+ regular contributers to this board, I suspect lots of people are coming from boards that really don't have a clue about our current economic situation, to prove my point..... I voted for between 10-20% down, you are seen as a 'bull' on here, yet I respect the fact that what you have voted for (5-10%) as perfectly feasible.

So who are the people voting for rises !!!!, it really does show that quite a few of the people that frequent this site are out of touch with reality, and that says nothing of the general public at large. We can see by this small snapshot, why a large amount of properties on Rightmove are still at 2007 prices, they don't have their head in the sand......... they simply don't have a clue that their head is actually in the sand.

teddyco

General Motors, the largest car manufacturer in the world, is still on the verge of a 'structured bankruptcy'.
We are not out of the woods by a long shot..........

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/06/business/06talk.html?ref=business

Really2

teddyco wrote: »

General Motors, the largest car manufacturer in the world, is still on the verge of a 'structured bankruptcy'.
We are not out of the woods by a long shot..........

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/06/business/06talk.html?ref=business

Come off it almost the the first line was

"he was confident in the future of the company but a structured bankruptcy remains a possibility."

Bankruptcy is a possibility for any company with debts it does not mean it is the verge of bankruptcy.

Wookster

Really2 wrote: »

Bankruptcy is a possibility for any company with debts it does not mean it is the verge of bankruptcy.

You're right, it doesn't.

However in the cast of GM & Chrysler, both are on the verge of bankruptcy. They are bohemouths stuck in the days when fuel was cheap and people didn't care too much about quality cars.

Potnoodle5878

I've gone for 5-10%.

The current interest rates are at a level where home owners are comfortable regardless of whether they are in negative equity, so do not need to sell. The ones that will be selling are those that have been made redundant, accounting for the 5-10%.

To be fair, it may even level out for most of the coming 12 months, however, once interest rates start to creep back up, and they will, things will change, and I think there could be a further 10-20% decrease in the following year, followed by an L shaped recovery.

I am a potential FTB in the position where by I have a 20% deposit at todays prices, and I have been working 3 jobs to get to that position, but I will not enter the market whilst there is so much uncertainty. Id rather wait and see what happens, keep squirreling away the pennies. Then if anything does happen to my job(s) or things get really tough, I have not ploughed my hard earned savings into a property worth 75% of what I paid for it, I have it as cash/bonds and relatively easily accessable if needed.

The government has done the right thing by trying to stimulate the economy, but they have also borrowed billions from future generations, that needs to start being paid back sharpish, so 20% VAT and 25% basic tax rate will not be too far away, and those who purchased mortgages at the wrong time will suffer the hardest, and will be paying extortionate repayments to keep their homes.

I kind of see the whole thing as a glorified pyramid system, more and more money was being invested in property, which meant increasingly higher prices, lots of people making very tidy sums, until such time as there is no more money entering the bottom, which meant that the people who entered the pyramid late could not move up, and are set lose collosal amounts of money.

vivatifosi

mitchaa wrote: »

I thought i was a bull voting for 5-10% down this year, but looking at the poll results there are over 500 that have voted for less so there appears to be far more bulls than bears. Perhaps im a bear then?

Interesting results, 9 people so far have voted for 20% up, i like the optimism

I voted the same way as you mitchaa. This is mostly because the amount of sentiment stating that the market will say high or increase is so large that it could take longer (my guess) to reach the natural low that housing is heading towards. My sentiment is naturally bearish, but I just don't think that people's views of the market are wholly aligned with the realities of what is happening yet.

BTW, why is this thread now in the Arms? I can't see why its not on topic where it was.

woody252506

penguine wrote: »

Are you planning to go for a fixed rate? Because don't forget that interest rates are going to go back up at some point.

Definitely. The deal I have seen is 5.25% fixed for 5 years.

Been FTB we want security of knowing what we will be paying, even more so with the current climate.:cool:

hfffoman

The only way prices won't crash this year is if so many people are in denial they hold off the crash until next year. If the people voting in this poll are representative, that looks possible.

The bubble has been growing for a full 10 years. In a stable economy there's no reason prices should stay higher than they were at the start(apart form an allowance for CPI or GDP), and we don't even have a stable economy, we have a massive bust. So expect an overshoot on the way down.

So far prices have only fallen back to where they were in about 2006. When people wake up to reality prices will go back all the way to where they started the Millennium, the only question is how fast. That's a long way further to fall.

dougz_2

The results have a curious shape for a distribution curve, why the dip at F?

scousethife

ad9898 wrote: »

The irony of this is the government are borrowing money that we, the taxpayer will have to pay back, to give to banks so they can then lend it out to...... guess who.... us the taxpayer,:rotfl:, a FTB'r taking out a mortgage now is going to have to pay the same money back twice, once to the bank, and secondly to the government in your taxes.

And all this on an asset that is falling in price..... madness I say.

Its a socialst ultimate !!!!!! scenario, gordon brown may actually [EMAIL="w@nk"]w@nk[/EMAIL] himself to death

So silver lineing etc