Halifax -1.9% MoM, -17.5% YoY -21.3% from peak.

ad9898_3

abaxas wrote: »

As a bear,

Who cares, the stats are getting close to being meaningless due to very low volumes.

Maybe they should start doing it quarterly? At least then it'll be smoother and hence a little more accurate.

That was my point at the beginning of the thread, are those 38000 mortgage approvals that have gone up from 32000 all FTB'rs or do they include remortgages ?

Really2

Sir_Humphrey wrote: »

As a rule of thumb, provided they sell more than about 1000-1500 new mortgages a month, sample sizes should not be an issue. (Happy to be corrected by any professional statisticians here).

The only problem is where they take the figures from.
There are more than 1000 towns in england alone so demographic can have a big bearing and a low sample could easily skew the figures.
(not a professional statistician but I have to work out a lot of anomalous data and what can spike things in my job to provide accurate reporting )

Dan:_4

lostinrates wrote: »

I'm not a true bear, but I'll pat you on the back and shake you hand if you like?

Anyway: I'm going to try and work out for myself what is included in these: I'm not sure you guys don't even agree! But I'm trying to get ready to go out ATM...:o so was hoping someone could convince me one way or the other:o

I think you should join the bulls

mitchaa

carolt wrote: »

Anyone know what month/year that puts us back to in prices terms? So I can see what things are worth now, IYSWIM?

£157k today brings us back to May 2004 on the Halifax scale
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-halifax-national.php

To get into 2003 the index needs to drop below £143k

£151k today brings us back to Jan 05 or Jun 04 (both are the same) on the Nationwide scale
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-nationwide-national.php

To get into 2003, the index needs to drop below £130k

So i would say 2003 prices are a long way off yet, probably not at all reached this year if at all.

angrypirate

abaxas wrote: »

As a bear,

Who cares, the stats are getting close to being meaningless due to very low volumes.

Maybe they should start doing it quarterly? At least then it'll be smoother and hence a little more accurate.

This is why the Haliwide often try to put more emphasis on their quarterly data.

During a crash, as there is such a small amount of sample data, it becomes easily distorted by a small number of transactions of very expensive properties (ie a handful of transactions for properties that are over £1mil each will significant distort the figures up, despite the fact their value may have fallen). In some respects you could argue that if these upwards blips werent seen, then there would be more cause to question the data.

Before this crash is over, I am expecting to see more of these blips from both indexes.

I am willing to place money on the fact that the crash wont be over until the UK has started to recover from the recession which will NOT BE in 2009.

During a property boom on the other hand, there are so many transactions, a statistical blip (negative number) is rarely seen.

Dan:_4

carolt wrote: »

Anyone know what month/year that puts us back to in prices terms? So I can see what things are worth now, IYSWIM?

Carol, depends what region your in - I would have thought your'll know this by now

setmefree2

Something for everyone - that's great. Halifax keep the bears happy for a month.. Nationwide keep the bulls happy for a month.

Peace reigns - well at least for a month

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

That was my point at the beginning of the thread, are those 38000 mortgage approvals that have gone up from 32000 all FTB'rs or do they include remortgages ?

Remortgages have seen a reduction of late due to the low variable rates on offer, so if they are included they would drag the numbers down.

Really2

Sir_Humphrey wrote: »

As a rule of thumb, provided they sell more than about 1000-1500 new mortgages a month, sample sizes should not be an issue. (Happy to be corrected by any professional statisticians here).

I get where you are coming from opinion polling, no that would not be sufficient on house prices, as stated before that could easily scewed by demographic prices.

lostinrates

Dan: wrote: »

I think you should join the bulls

I don't think I'm a joiner. I think I'm both bullish and bearish in different scenrios. What Id do now is different to what I'd do if I were single and well...more cautious, what I'd do if I had children would be less ambitious too.

Also, what I'd do in this system and what I'd like the system to be are very different things.

I'm neither fish nor fowl, bull nor bear.:o