Halifax -1.9% MoM, -17.5% YoY -21.3% from peak.

luvpump

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7980813.stm

No doubt next month Halifax will post either a very modest increase or very modest drop & nationwide will do the opposite,Swings & Roundabouts.. I wonder if monthly figures are an accurate indication ..
Either way, I think all the Bulls & bears agree, at years end prices will be lower than they are now, to suggest otherwise is Fantasy ..

StevieJ

lostinrates wrote: »

Is it truely whole of market? Repos etc? I'm thrilled if there really is a truer picture: its been a gripe of mione that there isn't one. Now there is just the issue of not being able to see through cashback and stampduty paid prices.

On an annual basis, the average price of all completed transactions in England and Wales is now 13.3% down

Does not include Scotland (which increases it a bit;)) but it is the one used by the Financial Times a fairly reputable newspaper :cool:

Really2

Quick bull bit.

Approvals in February, at 38,000, were the highest since May 2008

Good new

Missed this bit off, but I still think there is an indication mortgage credit is geting easier or buyers are coming back to the market:)
but were still 44% lower than in February 2008

Really2

ad9898 wrote: »

I could be wrong but I doubt whether it covers repo's and auctions, if it did the figure would surely be a lot lower than even the Halilax data.

I think it should be more widly accepted now most repos never go to auction EA are nocking them out at big discounts as lenders get wise it is the cheapest way to get rid of them.

Dan:_4

luvpump wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7980813.stm

No doubt next month Halifax will post either a very modest increase or very modest drop & nationwide will do the opposite,Swings & Roundabouts.. I wonder if monthly figures are an accurate indication ..
Either way, I think all the Bulls & bears agree, at years end prices will be lower than they are now, to suggest otherwise is Fantasy ..

They do not give an indication of what a house is worth, but you can certainly use them to predict the trend and how the market is behaving. The signs are showing a decline in monthly drops, which given that there have been reports of activity in the market, and banks lending again as approvals increase - this will start to filter through more so in the coming months when looking at the Halifax/Nationwide figures.

I agree that the average house price will be lower by end of 2009, but only by around 5%.

neas

Updated my Sig now

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

I could be wrong but I doubt whether it covers repo's and auctions, if it did the figure would surely be a lot lower than even the Halilax data.

EDIT, ok after a quick scan through the speel, it seems there are no mention of repo's and auctions. So really it's of no more value than any of the other indexes.

FTHPI is the only UK house price index based upon every residential property transaction in England and Wales and is designed to provide a “true measure of house price inflation”. FTHPI has been chosen by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world's largest derivative exchange, for their proposed residential house price derivative which we expect will be launched once the current falls in house prices can be seen nearing an end.

Just a quick one AD what part of every don't you understand

ad9898_3

Really2 wrote: »

I think it should be more widly accepted now most repos never go to auction EA are nocking them out at big discounts as lenders get wise it is the cheapest way to get rid of them.

Fair point, but considering the large number of transactions going through auctions at huge reductions off peak (-45%), I think they are valid for inclusion, after all if an EA valued 2 properties at 200k, one sold for 160k through the EA and the other went through auction and I bought it for 120k, the 120k is still a real figure , it is no more or less relevant than the one that sold for 160k, so my feeling they should be included in an index.

mitchaa

neas wrote: »

Updated my Sig now

You should be using Q1 2007 so i'll let you off;)

Wookster

StevieJ wrote: »

The house price to earnings ratio – a key measure of housing affordability – is at its lowest level since early 2003 at 4.34. The recent cuts in interest rates have also reduced the amount that the average existing mortgage borrower is devoting to mortgage repayments from a peak of 26.9% of household income in October 2008 to 22.6% in February 2009. :beer:

Where do you get 4.34?

My calculations yesterday came to 5.5. Did you do the math? :cool: