Nationwide - up 0.9% MoM

mdb99jh

Dan: wrote: »

Now, all off a sudden single +/- don't matter :rolleyes:

Well I'm not saying that the +/- don't matter, in fact the opposite. What I was suggesting is that this small + could be a bull trap, and wondering what your thoughts on that were?

Really2

ad9898 wrote: »

TBH, I would be fairly happy in a flat if they had 12 inch concrete floors walls and ceilings. I like my movies and death metal very loud, but unfortunately cardboard walls don't insulate sound very well, in fact they don't even insulate the toilet being flushed:rolleyes:, so 8k's worth of hifi and subwoofers don't sit well in a flat, on the otherside of the coin, when I want piece and quiet, I like silence, not somebodys dance music crap being played through a Curry's/Comet crappy hifi, hence I have to go with detached, even though for now there is just me.

Noise is a big thing for me and old terraced or semi's don't cut it either.

I like my metal too (but the hair is shorter than 15 years ago) But I don't think a detached is to much to as for a thirty something.
I have gone detached mainly for living space and garden.

PS You would love my Volvo stereo dyn-audio 650W Dolby-prologicII, I cant get past 2/3 volume without instant tinnitus and eyes vibrating.

Kenny4315

StevieJ wrote: »

Looks like Downey has been !!!!!!!! in the woods with the other bears

Great new signature ... :money:

Thrugelmir

Out of interest thought that I would read up on how the NBS arrives at its figures. Thought this was an interesting statement in view of some of the comments on this thread "Our house price method enables us to accurately track inflation in the housing market, rather than the trend in average prices of properties sold".

Below is the full article from the Nationwide on the basis of their index.

The Nationwide house

What determines the value of your home?


Every homeowner wants to know what has happened to the value of their house since they bought it. We try to help people answer this question by showing national and regional housing trends in our average house price index. To do this we monitor a set of features that have the biggest impact on value. These features then help us calculate how the price for an average property is changing.
Why do we do this and what are these features?

When producing our indices we only want to measure a change in value caused by inflation. We don't want to measure an increase in value when the owner has invested money in the property to improve the state of repair, or used their DIY skills to produce cosmetic changes. One way of measuring house price inflation would be to compare the simple average prices paid over a period of time. Unfortunately, this is misleading as an increase in the numbers of flats sold in a month for example, could produce a fall in the average price (because flats tend to be cheaper), even though the price of every property sold might actually have increased. To get around this problem we use a statistical method to construct an 'average house'.
Using the vast majority of Nationwide’s sample of mortgage data, we calculate the price of our 'average house' from a set of features. The simplest way of imagining Nationwide’s average 'house' is to think of it as the average price of a group of '100 properties', each with a set of 10 representative features (property type, whether it is new, region, neighbourhood characteristics at local and parliamentary constituency level, internal floor size, number of bedrooms and bathrooms, type of garage, and central heating status). This is the set of ten features that has the greatest impact on value.

Figure 1: The split of the Nationwide house by property type

Figure 1 shows how our '100 properties' are split into seven types. The most common property type (accounting for just over 30%) is semi-detached, followed closely by terraced and then detached.

Figure 2: The split of the Nationwide house by region, weightings from DETR

Figure 2 shows how our '100 properties' are located across the country. The highest number of houses, 13%, are sold in our Outer Metropolitan area and the lowest number sold are in Northern Ireland.
To reflect the national trend of house sales we use the DETR (Department of Environment Transport and Regions) proportions instead of our own. We do this because we know that we typically have stronger lending in the south. By assuming our '100 properties' are located in the regions in figure 2 our regional bias is removed. All the other nine features have proportions that are based on our mortgage lending.

Bedrooms 123457.4%28.5%48.4%13.9%1.8%

Table 1: The number of bedrooms in our '100 property' analogy

Of our '100 properties' 12.7% are new, i.e. built within the last year, nearly all (85.2%) have full central heating, and a relatively small number (7.6%) have more than one bathroom.

Type of Garage DoubleSingleNone4.9%49.3%45.8%

Table 2: The type of garage our '100 properties' have

In table 1 you can find the number of bedrooms in our '100 properties'. All properties with greater than 5 bedrooms are excluded from our sample as they are deemed to be exceptional, and would only make a very small proportion of the sample. Bedsits, or properties without a bedroom, account for less than 1% within the sample. In table 2 you can see that double garages are quite rare.
Our house price method enables us to accurately track inflation in the housing market, rather than the trend in average prices of properties sold. In constructing the value of our statistical house we assess the impact of 10 key features, detailed above. We have identified these 10 features as the most important drivers of property value and we can single out the effects of particular features. For example, if you sold a house in the East Midlands in order to buy an identical house (in the same type of area) in London, we can tell you how much more would you have to pay. In our next special feature we will highlight what adds or detracts value from your home

ad9898_3

Really2 wrote: »

I like my metal too (but the hair is shorter than 15 years ago) But I don't think a detached is to much to as for a thirty something.
I have gone detached mainly for living space and garden.

PS You would love my Volvo stereo dyn-audio 650W Dolby-prologicII, I cant get past 2/3 volume without instant tinnitus and eyes vibrating.

Don't get me started on hifi Really2, not only is it off topic, I would bore the pants off more or less everyone here, even though I expect StevieJ to come in and say I already do.:D

Dan:_4

mdb99jh wrote: »

Well I'm not saying that the +/- don't matter, in fact the opposite. What I was suggesting is that this small + could be a bull trap, and wondering what your thoughts on that were?

My thoughts are well documented on this thread and others, but if you insist I will bore everyone again:

House prices to fall another 5% (10% in some regions) then bottom out around end of year (maybe Q1 2010). A long period of no real growth i.e up and down each month. Very slow rises from about 2012 onwards and returning to peak between 2016 - 2018. History will recall 2008-2018 as 'the lost decade'

mdb99jh

Dan: wrote: »

My thoughts are well documented on this thread and others, but if you insist I will bore everyone again:

House prices to fall another 5% (10% in some regions) then bottom out around end of year (maybe Q1 2010). A long period of no real growth i.e up and down each month. Very slow rises from about 2012 onwards and returning to peak between 2016 - 2018. History will recall 2008-2018 as 'the lost decade'

Thanks Dan. I was actually talking with specific reference to potential future interest rate rises (see my first post), but still an interesting reply. The question is also open to anyone else to have a stab at?

Dan:_4

mdb99jh wrote: »

Thanks Dan. I was actually talking with specific reference to potential future interest rate rises (see my first post), but still an interesting reply. The question is also open to anyone else to have a stab at?

Well, I can't see them going up to 10% as you suggest. I can't see them rising at all while still in recession infact.

They will start to come up when the future is more clear (approx Jan 2010 onwards), which is why many people are starting to buy now, in order to secure a nice low rate.

SingleSue

Dan: wrote: »

Prices had only fallen around 4% by early 1990, so the crash hadn't really started at this stage.

I know......but it was our first recession and we didn't know what to expect. Remember the internet wasn't around then (well not for us certainly) so we could only go on what the media said.

You can now guess when I stopped being a sheeple and believing everything the media said can't you? :rolleyes:

Sword_OF_Damocles

Dead Cat Bounce. Or final death rattle. Or VI spin to heard the sheeple who STR'd either way it BS. Given what may be happening after the G20 I would say that houses will be sold in pound shops in a few years.