Exchange Traded Funds, an alternative way to invest.

sabretoothtigger

Yea your not wrong, theres still upside potential. If this was not viable the drops would be more sudden, it seems to be pretty gradual and my guess is there will be a clear trend down (in retrospect) but theres no easy money!

My sp500 bet was a topside of 928, it touched something like 930 I think. Thats how crap absolute bets are

cloud_dog

TT, I'm sure you've mentioned it before but who do you use to trade ETFs???

Thanks

sabretoothtigger

XLF correlates to our own Ftse 350 Banking sector. IG index will let you spreadbet the XLF and other etf. CMC markets will let you bet the uk banking sector but I think the spread is pretty massive.

Tradetime mentioned this site to me which looks pretty reasonable:
https://uk.etrade.com/e/t/uk/page?nav=2&subnav=6&screen=1&language=en&country=uk

tradetime

cloud_dog wrote: »

TT, I'm sure you've mentioned it before but who do you use to trade ETFs???

Thanks

Interactive Brokers for both ETF's and Futures. I think though they can work out a little pricey as you pay for data on foreign (non US) markets, and on US if you don't trade frequently enough, not sure on the US as I use my own data provider.

tradetime

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Yea your not wrong, theres still upside potential. If this was not viable the drops would be more sudden, it seems to be pretty gradual and my guess is there will be a clear trend down (in retrospect) but theres no easy money!

My sp500 bet was a topside of 928, it touched something like 930 I think. Thats how crap absolute bets are

Yeah cash got to 930 on the 8th,
I agree on the possible upside, a lot of chop and churn at the moment, am looking at 950 and 1014 on the S&P so I have a 25% short on here which really only hedges the longs I'm still holding. I miss timed it in January and the ship sailed without me, was looking for 1000 then to start scaling in at 950 and it got to about 940 - 945 and dropped, much stronger this time, still a lot of people talking about bear market rallies, though there are a lot more bulls now too. We could get a shallow correction to about 860, and then a final push to make sure everybodies onboard. It's all guess work here outside the intraday, so much money being printed, has to find its way into the market.

sabretoothtigger

Just bumbling my way through etf stock codes. It appears ishares offer 4 etf that cover the uk only and db offer many but selftrade only cover a few of them

UK Name Symbol ISIN Exch/Mkt Type Price Updated

DB 500 SHARIAH XSHU LU0328475362 LSE Domestic Quotes ETF 579.00(c) 16:35 DB 600 BK SHORT XS7S LU0322249037 LSE Domestic Quotes ETF 3,737.00(c) 16:35 DB 600 HC SHORT XSDS LU0322249466 LSE Domestic Quotes ETF 4,592.00(c) 16:35 DB 600 O&G SHRT XSES LU0322249623 LSE Domestic Quotes ETF 2,617.00(c) 16:35 DB 600 TEC.SHRT XS8S LU0322250043 LSE Domestic Quotes ETF 2,711.00(c) 16:35 DB 600 TEL.SHRT XSKS LU0322250126 LSE Domestic Quotes ETF 3,133.50(c) 16:35 DB CAC 40 XC4S LU0322251280 LSE Domestic Quotes ETF 6,797.00(c) 16:35 DB DBLCI XDBC LU0292106167 LSE Domestic Quotes ETF 2,190.00(c) 16:35 DB DBLCI XDBD LU0292106167 LSE Domestic Quotes ETF 33.52(c) 16:35 DB DJ EURO 50 XESX LU0274211217 LSE Domestic Quotes ETF 2,217.50(c) 16:35 DB DJ EURO 50 S XSSX LU0292106753 LSE Domestic Quotes ETF 3,921.00(c) 16:35 DB DJ ISLAMIC XIMT LU0328475529 LSE Domestic Quotes ETF 1,401.00(c) 16:35 DB FTSE100 SHT XUKS LU0328473581 LSE Domestic Quotes ETF 1,177.00(c) 16:35 DB FTSE AW UK XWXU LU0322254383 LSE Domestic Quotes ETF 1,817.50(c) 16:35 DB FTSE CHINA XX25 LU0292109856 LSE Domestic Quotes ETF 1,631.00(c) 16:35 DB FTSE CHINA $ XX2D LU0292109856 LSE Domestic Quotes ETF 24.97(c) 16:35

https://www.selftrade.co.uk/search.php?searchType=simple&query=db





http://www.dbxtrackers.co.uk/EN/showpage.asp?pageid=29&stinvtyp=privinv



Could the short ftse 100 be held longer term even
Its up 12% over the year which I dont think reflects the ftse fall but it could be worse?

XUKS_ wrote:

PRICE Changes


Period of Change Value Change 1 week 1,184.00 -7.00 -0.59% 1 mth 1,304.50 -127.50 -9.77% 3 mths 1,317.00 -140.00 -10.63% 6 mths 1,365.50 -188.50 -13.80% 1 yr 1,049.50 +127.50 +12.15%

https://www.selftrade.co.uk/quote.php?symbole=1uXUKS.L

tradetime

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Could the short ftse 100 be held longer term even
Its up 12% over the year which I dont think reflects the ftse fall but it could be worse?

https://www.selftrade.co.uk/quote.php?symbole=1uXUKS.L

Generally speaking Inverse ETF's aka "short ETF's" suffer from time decay, the more leveraged they are the worse it is, there are stories (I haven't looked to corroborate) of people holding SKF (leveraged short ETF of the financial sector) longer term and losing money on it, even though the financial sector itself had declined and they should have made money. I have used both the Nasdaq leveraged ETF's QLD and QID, and the S&P500 SDS and SSO, over a few days, and they work ok, ie they make money. You wouldneed to look at it and determine how much decay it has, over what time period, ie plot it's price against the FTSE over a few months comparing the same price levels , days weeks apart with the trackers price, and then decide how long you want to hold it for, and if the return minus price decay is worth it, I suspect the unleveraged variety performs more truely to it's design, but not entirely sure on that. One of the reasons they get "rubbished" is that people trade them without understanding their limitations and then get upset because they were expecting much better performance. An exaple of what to expect is on a 30 day hold the index may decline by say 15% and your inverse ETF may only capture 10 -12%. Volatility plays a big part, the more volatile the index you are inversely tracking the more skewed the track will be multiplied by time.

There's a video here of a study a guy did recently

sabretoothtigger

yea skf is ultrashort and I would not mess with that, just being short is a fairly extreme move in my book as I already sold my ftse tracker

I would normally only be short for minutes or hours, just wondering about trading a turnaround


skf vs xlf held over the last year would have resulted in a 50% loss on either investment.
skf would have been nuked on the rallys i guess especially recently

sef, normal short would have made -17% loss over a year which is more like it but obviously shouldnt be held either.

I realise thats because of how most options devalue, just thinking of holding more like a month

tradetime

Yeah, like I say, plot it against the FTSE and compare the same price levels on the FTSE with the corresponding price levels on the tracker over time, you should find that when the FTSE revisits the same price level the inverse tracker will post two different prices, the difference will represent the deacay and give you a rough idea of what to expect.
I'd be careful, this rally is still very strong despite recent suggestions of weakness, recent short term down channels have been violated to the upside, Nas100 has regained the 200sma. Like any speculative play, always have an exit strategy. Tricky stuff.

sabretoothtigger

I'd be careful, this rally is still very strong despite recent suggestions of weakness, recent short term down channels have been violated to the upside, Nas100 has regained the 200sma. Like any speculative play, always have an exit strategy. Tricky stuff.

Yep I agree we've bounced off the 20 MA etc but the sp500 is still below the 930 level I roughly set as a boundary a month or so ago

So either we're treading water here wasting energy or I guess it could be seen as brewing strength for a further move up at some point before year end possibly.

The main argument against a short is all the money pushed into the system. They said it'd take time for the low rates (& qe) to kick in and no doubt thats true, maybe this is the effect being seen

Still I'm willing to take a bet as these prices, my usual mistake to hesitate too long and then just not bother at all as prices change too quick

FTSE YTD is about 0% and the single short ETF is about -5% which isnt such bad value for 5 months holding, theres been plenty of time to exit this rally before now







https://condor3.betonmarkets.com//d//c_analysebet.cgi?udl=842.36&currency=GBP&w=MX&l=GB&code=RANGE_SPC_200_15_APR_09_12_OCT_09_927_602&purprice=20