RPI estimate for next publication date (24th March)

isofa

Does anyone care to estimate what RPI will be when published next (5 days)? It's currently 0.1% and is due to be published again on 24th March, I'm writing a document based on the current rate for costings, I suspect it'll go negative, but be interesting to hear some views...

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=19

Rafter

Given fall in mortgage payments RPI probably will go negative.

CPI might be a bit more stable for now until the fuel and heating bill increases drop out later this year.

Petrol and other costs seem to be stubbornly high and the level of discounting on the high street doesn't seem to be at pre christmas levels.

R.

fullstop

Rafter wrote: »

Given fall in mortgage payments RPI probably will go negative.

CPI might be a bit more stable for now until the fuel and heating bill increases drop out later this year.

Petrol and other costs seem to be stubbornly high and the level of discounting on the high street doesn't seem to be at pre christmas levels.

R.

Plus the new 2p a litre tax rise in petrol to come next month, plus stamps going up , also council tax also going up, food has not gone down in price as far as I can see. My inflation rate is going one way and it is not down..

nicko33

It's not just a matter of what has happened over the last month, but also what happened 1 year ago.

Even if nothing had changed from last month to this month, we would expect RPI to move to -0.6%

Jan 2008 = 209.8
Jan 2009 = 210.1
change = 0.3/209.8 = 0.14%

Feb 2008 = 211.4
Feb 2009 = 210.1 (if nothing changes from Jan 2009)
change = -1.3/211.4 = -0.61%

so I'm guessing between -0.5% and -1.2%

edit:
P.S.
I was paying 106.9p/litre for diesel in Feb 2008
but in Feb 2009 it was 101.9
and in March 2009 I've paid 96.9
which is almost the least I've ever paid for diesel since I changed to a diesel car in October 2007 (98.9p)
it rose consistently from then to 131.9 in July 2008, dropped to 94.9 in Jan 2009, and has since gone up and back down

isofa

Thanks all, I'm safe in my prediction it'll go negative then - will keep the documents based on that.

Nicko33 - can't believe diesel is so cheap where you live, it's either 99.9 or just over £1 here at the moment! We were paying 130ish at it's highest last year!

nicko33

isofa wrote: »

Nicko33 - can't believe diesel is so cheap where you live, it's either 99.9 or just over £1 here at the moment! We were paying 130ish at it's highest last year!

The prices I quoted were pump prices at a small selection of Shell stations
in the West Midlands/South Staffs area - in the Birmingham-Wolverhampton-Lichfield triangle.
Only Shell stations because I use the Citi Shell Mastercard to get 3% cashback on fuel purchases.

I guess this is cheaper than the national average (even before my cashback)

Lokolo

nicko33 wrote: »

The prices I quoted were pump prices at a small selection of Shell stations
in the West Midlands/South Staffs area - in the Birmingham-Wolverhampton-Lichfield triangle.
Only Shell stations because I use the Citi Shell Mastercard to get 3% cashback on fuel purchases.

I guess this is cheaper than the national average (even before my cashback)

Indeed. Stafford Shell bloody cheeeeap and its only next door to me

McSaver

CPI Prediction: 2.5%
RPI Prediction: -0.8%

We will probably most likely witness BoE drop interest rates to 0% next month.

6022tivo

I think i have some ns and i rpi linked stuff which is probably useless..

TREVORCOLMAN

6022tivo wrote: »

I think i have some ns and i rpi linked stuff which is probably useless..

Unfortunately you are paying for those who live on the "never never"

bristolleedsfan

RPI Prediction -0.7%