Do you think we could have avoided recession if the Tories were in power?

LauraW10

lostinrates wrote: »

Cause?:

Well here is one theory:-

The Austrian Theory of the Trade Cycle


http://mises.org/TRADCYCL/Austcycl.asp

bendix

I don't want to divert this fascinating discussion with mundanities, but a rather wicked thought crossed my mind just now.

Am I a bad person for rather enjoying this recession / depression / whatever? Does anyone else share my rather guilty - and entirely selfish - secret?

lostinrates

LauraW10 wrote: »

Well here is one theory:-

The Austrian Theory of the Trade Cycle


http://mises.org/TRADCYCL/Austcycl.asp

ta...this looks more it....reading now.

Ok...this is more interesting, talking about boom on the back of bank notes with out backing (gold)......limited real resources..........

ok....this is too dense for me to take in very quickly, I'll come back to it, but its basically talking about a disunite between money and real resorse ...(greed?) in the upwards part of the boom. It seems, despite the complexities, in a way, quite, astoundingly simple.

chewmylegoff

LauraW10 wrote: »

There is such a thing as Economic Cycles Theory. This is because

"A short term decline in economic activity has historically been observed to be followed by a short term gain in economic activity. Observed over longer periods, the highs and lows average out to form the trend, or average, economic growth rate. The Economic Cycles Theory holds that although this trend growth rate is subject to change, t has remained relatively steady in the past, thus theoretically indicating the general rate of economic growth that we can expect to see in the mid-term future."

Thus, as sure as eggs are eggs, economies never grow in a straight line - ever, ever.

Try this:-
http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm

The Kondratieff Theory

you appear to trying to argue with me by posting stuff which simply supports exactly what i said. that's the third time this has happened here in the last three days. what do i win.

Wookster

LauraW10 wrote: »

Well here is one theory:-

The Austrian Theory of the Trade Cycle


http://mises.org/TRADCYCL/Austcycl.asp

Instead of posting lots of links do you think you can contribute your own suggestions, or at least suggestions you agree with?

I'll ask another direct question: do you think that economic activity can cause a recession?

Cleaver

bendix wrote: »

I don't want to divert this fascinating discussion with mundanities, but a rather wicked thought crossed my mind just now.

Am I a bad person for rather enjoying this recession / depression / whatever? Does anyone else share my rather guilty - and entirely selfish - secret?

Only 90% of the other people on this forum.

<joke>

<well, kinda>

Really2

bendix wrote: »

I don't want to divert this fascinating discussion with mundanities, but a rather wicked thought crossed my mind just now.

Am I a bad person for rather enjoying this recession / depression / whatever? Does anyone else share my rather guilty - and entirely selfish - secret?

Depends if you would like others enjoying your misfortune eg losing your job and kicked out of your house.

If you would not mind that enjoy it as I am sure you will rejoice when it affects you as bad as others.

agent_orange_2

bendix wrote: »

I don't want to divert this fascinating discussion with mundanities, but a rather wicked thought crossed my mind just now.

Am I a bad person for rather enjoying this recession / depression / whatever? Does anyone else share my rather guilty - and entirely selfish - secret?

I would suspect there are quite a few like minded people around here. Again, I would suspect, most of them are probably not suffering personally.

lostinrates

bendix wrote: »

I don't want to divert this fascinating discussion with mundanities, but a rather wicked thought crossed my mind just now.

Am I a bad person for rather enjoying this recession / depression / whatever? Does anyone else share my rather guilty - and entirely selfish - secret?

I'd much prefer a stable economy, something predictable to make decisions on. Buying property looks better for us, on the other hand my best friend (law firm) got a letter about redundancies yesterday.

Using it as a learning opporunity yes, enjoying...not really. Even though I'm hopefully, going to gain more than risk losing.

JayScottGreenspan

In a nutshell, this (or something similar) is what tends to happen to form economic cycles.

The boom:
10 People borrow money
20 People make money
30 Goto 10

The bust:
10 Something bad happens
20 People lose money
30 No one wants to lend
40 Goto 20

It's basically a feedback loop between how free and easy credit is and how well the economy is going.

You can't have a totally smooth growth, but the smoother it is the better off you'll end up in the long run. That's because very peaky booms misallocate assets to projects that don't create much wealth (eg the house price boom), whilst very crushing busts destroy businesses that would otherwise be profitable and worthwhile.

This is what Gordon Brown was getting at here:

“Booms channel too many resources into speculative activities and not enough into others, hampering economic progress. The fleeting gains that such episodes bring are invariably far outweighed by the pain of the downturn that must follow.”
(Gordon Brown, 1998 budget speech)

Shame he gave in to short-term political expediency and let house prices get wildly out of control. What an idiot.