Do you think we could have avoided recession if the Tories were in power?

mewbie_2

Do you think we could have avoided recession if the Tories were in power?

'We' would have avoided a recession under the Tories.

However the working class would not.

LauraW10

Generali wrote: »

Thanks for the definition.

My opinion is that the idea of a business cycle or economic cycle is a crock of poo.

If we look at the last 4 recessions in the UK (1973, 1981, 1991, now) then each have their own reasons and none could be ascribed reasonably to some mystical economic cycle any more than it would be reasonable to say that it's because Mars is ascendant up Uranus.

Sorry to be blunt but you're wrong.

Why stop at those 4. You missed these.

1931
1919
1890
1870
1857
1837
1807
1797

http://recession.org/history

http://www.nber.org/cycles.html

Generali

LauraW10 wrote: »

Why stop at those 4. You missed these.

1931
1919
1890
1870
1857
1837
1807
1797

http://recession.org/history

I'm not sure what point you want to make. Can you be clearer?

chewmylegoff

economic cycle is just a term for describing the historic growth/contraction graph. recessions happen - yes - but they are not caused by something called "the economic cycle".

lostinrates

chewmylegoff wrote: »

economic cycle is just a term for describing the historic growth/contraction graph. recessions happen - yes - but they are not caused by something called "the economic cycle".

I agree with this, but also, to take it further, or backwards,....something CAUSES that growth/contraction, and as Generali said, its not tidal.

Its cause and consequence isn't it? And as I (am bravely trying to) understand it those causes are mulitfactoral and complicated but certainly don't 'just happen'. Is that right?

Generali

lostinrates wrote: »

...those causes are mulitfactoral and complicated but certainly don't 'just happen'. Is that right?

That's what I believe.

As with most things that I think, there are a lot of highly paid economists that disagree with me as well as politicos and forum posters.

You can believe me or someone else. Ultimately, it's all a guess as to what'll happen in future. You can use your knowledge to help predict though.

bendix

Generali wrote: »

I think this one might be a bit more horrid than most recent examples of recession and it won't just be shrugged off.

Time will tell of course.

Perhaps, in purely technical or statistical terms,yes. I agree.

But that is just looking at a recession via a graph.

In terms of human impact, it will be one of the easiest in that standards of living will decline, but from a signficantly higher starting point than in previous recessions. As we progress, we get richer as a society. As such, our regular falls are increasingly cushioned.

When I hear hyperbolic claims that this will be as bad as 1929, it makes me laugh. Maybe falls will be the same statistically, but don't tell me real human beings are going to suffer to the same extent as tens of millions of people did in the 1930s.

LauraW10

chewmylegoff wrote: »

economic cycle is just a term for describing the historic growth/contraction graph. recessions happen - yes - but they are not caused by something called "the economic cycle".

There is such a thing as Economic Cycles Theory. This is because

"A short term decline in economic activity has historically been observed to be followed by a short term gain in economic activity. Observed over longer periods, the highs and lows average out to form the trend, or average, economic growth rate. The Economic Cycles Theory holds that although this trend growth rate is subject to change, t has remained relatively steady in the past, thus theoretically indicating the general rate of economic growth that we can expect to see in the mid-term future."

Thus, as sure as eggs are eggs, economies never grow in a straight line - ever, ever.

Try this:-
http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm

The Kondratieff Theory

lostinrates

LauraW10 wrote: »

Thus, as sure as eggs are eggs, economies never grow in a straight line - ever, ever.

..............OK, why?

LauraW10

lostinrates wrote: »

..............OK, why?

Try this for starters

The Kondratieff Theory


http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm