Do you think we could have avoided recession if the Tories were in power?

Generali

LauraW10 wrote: »

Recessions are a normal part of the economic cycle - they are not punishments.

So they just happen every now and again like a full moon. Is that the crux of your argument?

BTW, I don't think recessions are punishments either.

Wookster

LauraW10 wrote: »

Recessions are a normal part of the economic cycle - they are not punishments. Neither are the good times "rewards" for perceived "good behaviour". So to quote Michael Winner " Calm down dear - it's only a recession!"

SO why are some worse than others then? Why was the 1930s depression the worst of last century? Why was the 1970s worse than the recession of the '90s?

Surely there must be some factors which contribute to the depth of recessions or is it just pot luck?

JayScottGreenspan

LauraW10 wrote: »

Recessions are a normal part of the economic cycle - they are not punishments. Neither are the good times "rewards" for perceived "good behaviour".

But do you agree that managing the economic cycle is worthwhile? Do you agree with the following quote?

“Booms channel too many resources into speculative activities and not enough into others, hampering economic progress. The fleeting gains that such episodes bring are invariably far outweighed by the pain of the downturn that must follow.”
(Gordon Brown, 1998 budget speech)

A._Badger

LauraW10 wrote: »

In other words - "We're all doomed - we've been having a good time and now we are to be punished"

....recessions aren't a punishment they are just economies getting out of kilter - get a grip

There's a delicious irony in someone refusing to face the truth telling someone who does to 'get a grip'.

Degenerate

Wookster wrote: »

SO why are some worse than others then? Why was the 1930s depression the worst of last century?

I'll field this one. It was because America let half of their banks collapse in the name of bloody-minded market purism, causing a huge contraction in the credit element of the money supply. They then maintained a strong currency and balanced budgets, which crippled any potential recovery, untill WWII forced massive deficit spending which produced a recovery.

Incidentally, Britain quickly came off the Gold standard and devalued the pound, which led to us suffering a much shallower and shorter depression.

I'll leave it to others to compare these facts with current events and the rhetoric coming from certain parties.

bendix

I must admit to being sympathetic to Laura (and Michael Winner)'s view on this. It's only a recession and it will pass. Could it have been avoided? No, because it's a global downturn. Could measures have been taken to mitigate its impact? Sure, but only marginally.

It is what it is. It's not the end of the world. It's part of the normal economic cycle which continues unabated irrespective of politician's intervention.

There is one thing we can be sure of. The economy will bounce back. The pound will recover. Share prices will rise again. And house prices will eventually start to pick up.

All else is just process and the passage of time.

Generali

bendix wrote: »

I must admit to being sympathetic to Laura (and Michael Winner)'s view on this. It's only a recession and it will pass. Could it have been avoided? No, because it's a global downturn. Could measures have been taken to mitigate its impact? Sure, but only marginally.

It is what it is. It's not the end of the world. It's part of the normal economic cycle which continues unabated irrespective of politician's intervention.

There is one thing we can be sure of. The economy will bounce back. The pound will recover. Share prices will rise again. And house prices will eventually start to pick up.

All else is just process and the passage of time.

I think this one might be a bit more horrid than most recent examples of recession and it won't just be shrugged off.

Time will tell of course.

pickles110564

Generali wrote: »

What happens when the Chinese call in their debts and find the US-ians won't repay as they're not prepared to live in a way that many Chinese people consider normal?

War.................

LauraW10

Generali wrote: »

So they just happen every now and again like a full moon. Is that the crux of your argument?

BTW, I don't think recessions are punishments either.

"The term business cycle or economic cycle refers to economy-wide fluctuations in production or economic activity over several months or years, around a long-term growth trend. It typically involves shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid economic growth (expansion or boom), and periods of relative stagnation or decline (contraction or recession).[1]
These fluctuations are often measured using the growth rate of real gross domestic product. Despite being termed cycles, these fluctuations in economic growth do not follow a mechanical or predictable periodic pattern."


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_cycle

So like day follows night, and summer follows spring, contraction follows growth....

Generali

LauraW10 wrote: »

"The term business cycle or economic cycle refers to economy-wide fluctuations in production or economic activity over several months or years, around a long-term growth trend. It typically involves shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid economic growth (expansion or boom), and periods of relative stagnation or decline (contraction or recession).[1]
These fluctuations are often measured using the growth rate of real gross domestic product. Despite being termed cycles, these fluctuations in economic growth do not follow a mechanical or predictable periodic pattern."


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_cycle

Thanks for the definition.

My opinion is that the idea of a business cycle or economic cycle is a crock of poo.

If we look at the last 4 recessions in the UK (1973, 1981, 1991, now) then each have their own reasons and none could be ascribed reasonably to some mystical economic cycle any more than it would be reasonable to say that it's because Mars is ascendant up Uranus.

Sorry to be blunt but you're wrong.