House prices fall by 20 per cent in towns over past six months

The_Fat_el_Hombre

bendix wrote: »

I love these threads.

Those who obviously have BTL properties or who moved onto the property ladder in 2006-2007 and are overextended ALWAYS deny these doom and gloom reports as nonsense.

Those who are looking to buy, desperately want to believe them.

The truth, i suspect, is somewhere in the middle.

It's beyond tedious. Evry thread is the same people saying the same things.

But lol at the 'were things really that bad in summer 2007' comment

Graham_Devon

mitchaa wrote: »

People seemed to be a lot happier 2yrs ago is the point i was getting at. Everyone is either walking about depressed having lost everything, or walking on egg shells waiting for that redundancy interview.

All as a result of the housing bubble bursting.

Happier because they had a credit card, yes.

Happier because they could buy all these things without having the money.

I'm happier thinking that the economy could turn to something we can actually afford to live in, but then I didnt go out and buy 40" plasmas on credit, and although my house could have done with new furniture etc, made do with what I had, to the hysterics of my friend who had anything and everything, but is now bankrupt.

By the way Bendix, I bought in 2006. And I'm saying it can happen!!

Thrugelmir

Really2 wrote: »

Depends on if they need to move if they are not forced I would fail to see them drop 40% to compete unless they could get 40% off their potential purchase.

I would say these figures are saying the bottom is very likely to be the next 9 months.

I hope you are all dusting off your notes and repo hunting.:D

On a localised basis. The effects of the down turn in the economy are only just beginning to bite. With far more bad news yet to come. As this is key to the pricing of houses, prices have yet further to fall. The bottom may very well be reached in the next 9 months but upturn is going to be a long slow road.

Really2

Thrugelmir wrote: »

On a localised basis. The effects of the down turn in the economy are only just beginning to bite. With far more bad news yet to come. As this is key to the pricing of houses, prices have yet further to fall. The bottom may very well be reached in the next 9 months but upturn is going to be a long slow road.

I prefer nominal prices as a bottom. Inflation adjusted is a lot harder to spot and work out when to buy.;)

mitchaa

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Happier because they had a credit card, yes.

Happier because they could buy all these things without having the money.

Do we have higher bankruptcy cases now than we did back in 2007?
Do we have higher repossession rates now than we did back in 2007?

I do not know the answer, i'm simply speculating but if credit cards and car loans and mortgages were being paid back, what was the problem with having debt?

To me, we may have cheaper homes at the end of it, but at what cost? How many families are being broken up due to financial strains, how many jobs are being lost, how many small businesses are there going bust? How many people are there not enjoying themselves and having a social life?

We may have cheaper homes at the end of it, but if people do not have jobs to buy the homes, then what good is it doing?

Im just looking at it from another viewpoint, not that i do not agree that the housing market was bananas back in 2007, just that analysing the wider picture, were they really that bad?

How many sunseekers went to the costas in 2007, how many are going this year? Peoples lives are being affected and by the doom and gloom painted by the media for the worse.

Instead of looking at it in tunnel vision, look at the wider picture into how all this is affecting normal people/families.

Cannon_Fodder

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2009/feb/20/repossessions-homeowners

"Figures for last year, released today by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML), are the worst since the housing crisis in the early 1990s, when repossessions hit 75,500 in 1991. They stand 55% higher than the 25,900 properties forcibly given up by homebuyers in 2007."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/record-numbers-are-declared-bankrupt-as-recession-bites-1570698.html

"The increase in the number of people declaring themselves insolvent was particularly high in Scotland and Northern Ireland – jumping 75 and 39 per cent respectively in the final quarter of 2008, compared to the same period a year ago. In England and Wales, there was an 18.5 per cent jump in personal insolvencies. In total, 35,694 people declared themselves insolvent across the UK during the quarter."

mitchaa

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2009/feb/20/repossessions-homeowners

"Figures for last year, released today by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML), are the worst since the housing crisis in the early 1990s, when repossessions hit 75,500 in 1991. They stand 55% higher than the 25,900 properties forcibly given up by homebuyers in 2007."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/record-numbers-are-declared-bankrupt-as-recession-bites-1570698.html

"The increase in the number of people declaring themselves insolvent was particularly high in Scotland and Northern Ireland – jumping 75 and 39 per cent respectively in the final quarter of 2008, compared to the same period a year ago. In England and Wales, there was an 18.5 per cent jump in personal insolvencies. In total, 35,694 people declared themselves insolvent across the UK during the quarter."

Thanks, so i may have a point afterall

Cannon_Fodder

mitchaa wrote: »

Instead of looking at it in tunnel vision, look at the wider picture into how all this is affecting normal people/families.

Just a shame that few people thought about the wider picture, as you suggest, on the way up the boom/bubble.

Graham_Devon

mitchaa wrote: »

Do we have higher bankruptcy cases now than we did back in 2007?
Do we have higher repossession rates now than we did back in 2007?

I do not know the answer, i'm simply speculating but if credit cards and car loans and mortgages were being paid back, what was the problem with having debt?

To me, we may have cheaper homes at the end of it, but at what cost? How many families are being broken up due to financial strains, how many jobs are being lost, how many small businesses are there going bust? How many people are there not enjoying themselves and having a social life?

We may have cheaper homes at the end of it, but if people do not have jobs to buy the homes, then what good is it doing?

Im just looking at it from another viewpoint, not that i do not agree that the housing market was bananas back in 2007, just that analysing the wider picture, were they really that bad?

How many sunseekers went to the costas in 2007, how many are going this year? Peoples lives are being affected and by the doom and gloom painted by the media for the worse.

Instead of looking at it in tunnel vision, look at the wider picture into how all this is affecting normal people/families.

I kind of agree, and do see where you are coming from.

But we are not living in fairy land with fairy money, which I can only think you are kind of hinting at when you say everyone was happy, so why do we ned to stop.

This could have been stopped before it got this bad. There were enough warnings out there. And it has to be said, the hated HPC posters, the ones who were there in 2005 etc, were correct. We had warnings in 2006 from many financial boffins saying this must stop, but it was all looked past by the government. The government could have had a tighter grip on it all, but it seems they didn't have a grip at all, and just used every increase as a sign of prospering wealth for the country.

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mitchaa wrote: »

You have to ask yourselves, was unnafordable property as it was in 2007 really that bad in the wider picture?

Did it lead to millions of redundancies, high interest rates on loans and mortgages, an increase in the welfare bill due to unemployment, manufacturing to stop, house building to stop, savings accounts being next to useless and so on and on.

People still bought when the housing market was high, and to me anyway, it looks a hell of a lot worse now than it was 2 yrs ago where the only people complaining back then were the FTB's. Now everyone is complaining and FTB are still no further forward than they were even with cheaper homes now to buy.

This recession in my opinion has a lot to answer for, were things really that bad summer 2007

I wonder.

Mitchaa, I have to say I'm surprised at what you are advocating here, your arguments usually have a much sounder base. You seem to be arguing for a never-ending ponzi scheme, which would have kept everyone happy, the issue is, nothing is forever, all things must end. With ponzi schemes the longer they go on for the harder the fall at the end, this is exactly what has happened now.

Surely the best idea, is never to start a ponzi scheme, or if one is spotted, to end it as quickly as possible. The housing bubble of 2001-2007 was a ponzi scheme, simple as that. As long as ever greater amounts of money were being shovelled in at the bottom by FTB'rs and BTL'rs, everything was dandy, the problem is, this kind of business/economic model is always going to be doomed to failure, as we are now seeing.