House prices fall by 20 per cent in towns over past six months

Cannon_Fodder

Mitchaa,

The point is not that every house suffers in the same instant in a house price crash.

It takes time to evolve. There are some pockets/regions who have not dropped since the start, hardly, who are now getting that 20% into their heads, and maybe building in a bit more to make sure they sell, as they have already had two Xmases stuck where they don't want to be.


I thought National figures were bad, so some local specifics would be considered useful/valid?

Cat695

mitchaa wrote: »

According to that well known property website Globrix:rotfl: (Never heard of it)

Great, house prices have fallen 20% in 18mths but this website thinks a lot of places have fallen 28% or so in 6.........What a pile of old poo

Its saying in TOWNS house prices have fallen more. which isn't hard to believe what with all those horrible one bed flats etc

Cannon_Fodder

thegibdog wrote: »

Hey, mitchaa's right! If you've never heard of something you can automatically dismiss it!

I had not heard of Multicollinearity or Heteroskedasticity until I started reading up on House Price Indices, does that make them non-existant?

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/word/31_08_07TechDetails.doc

My brain hurts!

mitchaa

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Mitchaa,

The point is not that every house suffers in the same instant in a house price crash.

It takes time to evolve. There are some pockets/regions who have not dropped since the start, hardly, who are now getting that 20% into their heads, and maybe building in a bit more to make sure they sell, as they have already had two Xmases stuck where they don't want to be.


I thought National figures were bad, so some local specifics would be considered useful/valid?

If all the towns listed are shown to be similar in the Nationwides quarterly release next month then i'll take a bit more notice, but data from some 2 bit bob website i shall take with a pinch of salt.

Halifax, Nationwide, LR and Rosea are the only indexes that anyone studying the market should be looking at.

Its a bit like rightmove reporting figures, means nothing.

I am just keeping a sensible head on all this as this board has gone nuts over the last week or so, i can see why a lot of the regulars have left in their droves.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

I would say these figures are saying the bottom is very likely to be the next 9 months.

Well that would certainly defy every single other bubble burst we have ever known. And it would also defy every bubble burst we have ever known in not only the UK, but the US, and a lot of Europe too!

Possible, yes. But slim pickings me reckons. People seem to have this insistance of "oh no, couldt happen to us" even though it has happened time and time again throughout history.

chucky

mitchaa wrote: »

According to that well known property website Globrix(Never heard of it)

they're owned or part owned by News Corp - it's selective journalism.
they're job is reporting news not selling houses. nuff said.

mitchaa

Cat695 wrote: »

Its saying in TOWNS house prices have fallen more. which isn't hard to believe what with all those horrible one bed flats etc

Some pretty big towns out there, Reading being a prime example. 25mins from London, a population larger than many cities, but yet it's branded as a town.

The data may well be correct, but the national average is still standing at a snippet under 20% from peak. I'm sure a lot of you guys if you are being honest with yourselves are a little bit dissapointed with that figure.

This year will be interesting, many of you have predicted 40% down by the end of the year, with QE and the money being pumped into the banks, i say we will get no-where near that.

Im sure sometime in December someone will open all these threads and say, i told you so;)

Anyway the real question is.....

What on earth is my signature going to do next month when Q1 2009 are out

Thrugelmir

Not surprising really. From the BBC.

Mortgage lending continued to fall in January, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).
Just 23,400 mortgages were completed for all house buyers, a new record low, with only 8,900 first-time buyers able to take out home loans.
The number of mortgages lent was down by 28% from December, and 52% lower than in January 2008.
The CML said the recession and falling house prices were forcing lenders to ration their lending even more.
"January and February are usually the quietest months in the mortgage market," said Michael Coogan, the CML's director general.
"The current withdrawal of many specialist, small and foreign lenders from new lending has created a huge gap in the capacity to fund mortgages to match consumer demand and this is continuing in 2009," he added.
Rationing With lenders increasingly restricting their loans in response to their own funding problems, first-time buyers in particular are having to put down ever-larger deposits.

The average first-time buyers' down payment has now reached 24% of the value of the property they are buying, a new record.
With prices continuing to fall, the dwindling number of first-time buyers are typically borrowing only £97,000, the lowest figure since the summer of 2005.
House movers are also borrowing less, at £117,000, which was also the smallest loan size for this group of borrowers since the middle of 2005.
And they are putting down an average deposit of 35% of the value of their new properties, the highest level since 1984.
"We have reached the nadir in terms of purchases but recovery will be slow and modest," said Ray Boulger of mortgage brokers John Charcol.
Middle-aged movers
The CML's figures reveal that moving house has become the prerogative of the middle-aged.
These are likely to be people who still have some substantial equity in their homes, which has not been completely eroded by the house price falls of the past year and a half.
In January, the average age of home movers - people who were moving from one mortgaged property to another - hit 41, the oldest since records began in 1974.
The average first-time buyer is still 29, in line with their average age over the past four years, but in the past two years their numbers have shrunk by two-thirds.
Meanwhile the property website Globrix said that asking prices in a few towns and cities had fallen by 20% in just the past six moths.
The average asking price is down 11% across the UK. But in Blackpool the fall has been 28%, with Lewes and Windsor showing drops of 22% and 21% respectively.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Well that would certainly defy every single other bubble burst we have ever known. And it would also defy every bubble burst we have ever known in not only the UK, but the US, and a lot of Europe too!

.

what 2.5 years of falls to a nominal bottom? Are repos going to increase when the economy picks up?

What about the oil bubble last summer?

Do you argue for the sake of it graham?

Graham_Devon

mitchaa wrote: »

This year will be interesting, many of you have predicted 40% down by the end of the year, with QE and the money being pumped into the banks, i say we will get no-where near that.

QE money has to stop somewhere. Interest rates will not be this low and will return to 8%+, they will have to to starve off hyper inflation due to QE.

QE money is simply extending the pain to a future point, but reducing the immediate pain. It's bodging basically, and as with any bodge, it doesnt actually fix the problem and at some point you are going to have to address that problem without bodging it.

QE also, has not, and probably will not, ever reach our pocket, and simply makes everything mre expensive for the little man, while protecting the country.