House prices fall by 20 per cent in towns over past six months

mitchaa

Graham_Devon wrote: »

QE money has to stop somewhere. Interest rates will not be this low and will return to 8%+, they will have to to starve off hyper inflation due to QE.

QE money is simply extending the pain to a future point, but reducing the immediate pain. It's bodging basically, and as with any bodge, it doesnt actually fix the problem and at some point you are going to have to address that problem without bodging it.

You have to ask yourselves, was unnafordable property as it was in 2007 really that bad in the wider picture?

Did it lead to millions of redundancies, high interest rates on loans and mortgages, an increase in the welfare bill due to unemployment, manufacturing to stop, house building to stop, savings accounts being next to useless and so on and on.

People still bought when the housing market was high, and to me anyway, it looks a hell of a lot worse now than it was 2 yrs ago where the only people complaining back then were the FTB's. Now everyone is complaining and FTB are still no further forward than they were even with cheaper homes now to buy.

This recession in my opinion has a lot to answer for, were things really that bad summer 2007

I wonder.

chucky

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

I had not heard of Multicollinearity or Heteroskedasticity until I started reading up on House Price Indices, does that make them non-existant?

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/word/31_08_07TechDetails.doc

My brain hurts!

that was an excellent read to see how the House Price index is calculated

"Consequently it is not possible to explain all of the variation in prices that is observed. However, the characteristics used in the equations in this study generally explain around 70 per cent of this variation in the UK and 55-80 per cent at the regional level, depending on the particular sub groupings of houses."

"Before proceeding to the results of these calculations, however, we would draw attention to the nature of the underlying statistical analysis because the reliability of the results depends upon the reliability of the basic price-estimating equations."

Just shows that the House Price Index may not be as accurate as people believe.

I'll wait until someone cracks on about "Green Shoots being frozen due to snow in January" before I roll the above out. :rotfl:

Cannon_Fodder

mitchaa wrote: »

If all the towns listed are shown to be similar in the Nationwides quarterly release next month then i'll take a bit more notice, but data from some 2 bit bob website i shall take with a pinch of salt.

Try these against end-2008 Haliwide, if you are bored...

http://www.globrix.com/blog/337/london-house-prices-drop-100000-in-two-weeks
http://www.globrix.com/blog/345/globrix-data-shows-asking-prices-are-still-falling


The major difference between asking prices not moving, like Rightmove was reporting 6 months ago, and asking prices now moving, is that the Sold price will be (90% of the time) lower than asking...

...so already having dropped the asking is building in a drop in the Sold price.

Then the next house has to react to that, and so on.

This will not be a quick process, I think I've said before, stop being so impatient.

Graham_Devon

mitchaa wrote: »

You have to ask yourselves, was unnafordable property as it was in 2007 really that bad in the wider picture?

Did it lead to millions of redundancies, high interest rates on loans and mortgages, an increase in the welfare bill due to unemployment, manufacturing to stop, house building to stop, savings accounts being next to useless and so on and on.

People still bought when the housing market was high, and to me anyway, it looks a hell of a lot worse now than it was 2 yrs ago where the only people complaining back then were the FTB's. Now everyone is complaining and FTB are still no further forward than they were even with cheaper homes now to buy.

This recession in my opinion has a lot to answer for, were things really that bad summer 2007

I wonder.

Yes, it most definately was.

Simply because the burst was unavoidable. It HAD to stop somewhere. Otherwise where would we end up? People paying 2k a month on a mortgage for a start home, on their 180% mortgage?

2 3rds of the country on housing benefit as no one could afford to live?

The only reason things COULD continue is because as a country debt kept going up and up and up. At some point, it had to end. It should have been a lot sooner. It could have been later if suddenly a new 150% mortgage product had come out.

The very reason we are in this now is because those prices were allowed to get so high and debt was allowed to get so high.

Did it lead to millions of redundancies, high interest rates on loans and mortgages, an increase in the welfare bill due to unemployment, manufacturing to stop, house building to stop, savings accounts being next to useless and so on and on.

Absolutely 110% yes to every single one of them. It's whats happening around you right now.

Cannon_Fodder

Call it a house of cards, built on shifting sands, without foundations, and lacking any substantive support.

Or what Graham said.

twirlypinky

S!!!!horpe, Lol :rotfl: :rotfl:

chucky

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Try these against end-2008 Haliwide, if you are bored...

http://www.globrix.com/blog/337/london-house-prices-drop-100000-in-two-weeks
http://www.globrix.com/blog/345/globrix-data-shows-asking-prices-are-still-falling


The major difference between asking prices not moving, like Rightmove was reporting 6 months ago, and asking prices now moving, is that the Sold price will be (90% of the time) lower than asking...

...so already having dropped the asking is building in a drop in the Sold price.

Then the next house has to react to that, and so on.

This will not be a quick process, I think I've said before, stop being so impatient.

my problem with what you have linked is that it is not totally acurate reporting, even though what they report may be fact - it's just the way that they compare stuff that has no sense but create a headline.

for example the first link about Westminster claims £100k price drops, however Westminster had a 0.8% rise in LR in December and then a 0.8% fall in Jan (I believe). Before you jump - i know there is a time lag.

it then goes on and quotes an average London price reduction as £28,796.

i can't be bothered to work out the averages on Westminster property but you can work out yourselves what percentage that drop is of an asking price.

it's very selective journalism comparing apples with oranges and giving you the comparison as bananas - they cross over figures and averages that are not comparible at all.

bendix

I love these threads.

Those who obviously have BTL properties or who moved onto the property ladder in 2006-2007 and are overextended ALWAYS deny these doom and gloom reports as nonsense.

Those who are looking to buy, desperately want to believe them.

The truth, i suspect, is somewhere in the middle.

AverageJoe_4

Cat695 wrote: »

Blackpool has been the worst hit, with asking prices in the town diving by an average of 28 per cent during the past six months, followed by Kilmarnock in Scotland and Hertford both at 26.5 per cent.

House prices in Worksop, Nottinghamshire, have dropped by 25.8 per cent, while properties in Kendal, Cumbria; Kidderminster, Worcestershire; Bridgend, South Wales; and Lewes, Sussex, have all suffered falls in their value of more than 22 per cent.
Asking prices have dropped by at least 21 per cent in Accrington, Lancashire; Exmouth, Devon; Telford, Shropshire; and Windsor, Berkshire; while they are more than 20 per cent lower in Burton-upon-Trent, Staffordshire; Shipley, West Yorkshire; Nuneaton, Warwickshire; and S!!!!horpe, North Lincolnshire.
The average asking price across the whole of the UK has fallen by around 11per cent during the same period.

only in the telegraph though

Hey thats nothing!!! I lost £80,000 on a flat "worth" 180,000 in under 2 years.

This has to be an all time record... but then again, I was ripped off by an investment firm in the first place..

hmm...

mitchaa

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Yes, it most definately was.

Simply because the burst was unavoidable. It HAD to stop somewhere. Otherwise where would we end up? People paying 2k a month on a mortgage for a start home, on their 180% mortgage?

2 3rds of the country on housing benefit as no one could afford to live?

The only reason things COULD continue is because as a country debt kept going up and up and up. At some point, it had to end. It should have been a lot sooner. It could have been later if suddenly a new 150% mortgage product had come out.

The very reason we are in this now is because those prices were allowed to get so high and debt was allowed to get so high.



Absolutely 110% yes to every single one of them. It's whats happening around you right now.

People seemed to be a lot happier 2yrs ago is the point i was getting at. Everyone is either walking about depressed having lost everything, or walking on egg shells waiting for that redundancy interview.

All as a result of the housing bubble bursting.