Respected Analyst : House prices 'could drop another 55%' and leave Britain bankrupt

Andrew64

Although I find 55% way out, I don't think 40% is impossible. When you consider that a lot of available mortgages now require a 40% deposit, a fall of this magnitude is obviously being factored in.

Graham_Devon

Lakelady wrote: »

I just can`t see it myself. DD21 doesn`t need, but could do with a house. If prices drop by 25% we`ll be encouraging her to buy and giving her a 25% deposit.
There are people much much better off than us with savings doing nothing - plenty will jump in.

And there are people much worse off, and always have been.

Personally I don't know ANYONE who is lucky enough to have their parents just give them a 25% deposit of a house. That would equate to at least £38k round here, even with a 25% drop, for a 2 bed terrace.

I may be mixing in the wrong circles, but each and every one of us that I have stayed in contact with since leaving school, have all bought off our own backs. Some are still renting. A couple still living with parents.

I honestly cannot say I know anyone who has, or has a chance of being given such a deposit, even a mate who has wealthy parents will not get that, infact he still drives around in a battered up fiat punto and shares with a lodger in a rented place, as his parents don't believe in easy handouts.

So my view, is somewhat different. And from my social circles, and from a hell of a lot of posts on this very forum, I'd think those without the means to buy, far outweigh those who do have this money all sat in bak accounts....I just can't see why, if they have all this money sat in bank accounts, they havent bought beforehand. There will be a minority waiting for a crash, but that IS a minority.

It's also worth remembering the sheer amount of BTL properties that are going to hit the market. The BTL brigade REALLY accelerated the upwards spiral. So I believe, personally, its going to have a major effect the other way.

When we hit that point where rents are going to HAVE to come down, to compete with other rentals, then BTL landlords are going to face being hit with the double whammy of high mortgage, maybe negative equity, and having to accept a lower rental, JUST to keep a rental coming in. A lot will be forced to sell.

stevetodd

Lakelady wrote: »

I just can`t see it myself. DD21 doesn`t need, but could do with a house. If prices drop by 25% we`ll be encouraging her to buy and giving her a 25% deposit.
There are people much much better off than us with savings doing nothing - plenty will jump in.

I agree, my wife and I are waiting to buy a few, not just yet though, but it's getting close to the time, I'm not going to tie up my cash in anymore fixed term bonds as they mature.

I would also like to trade up, but my wife really likes our house, I do too, but there is always something better around (and you can't take it with you)

chucky

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Whats his agenda apart from getting hits on his website maybe. I already thought what he said anyway, he just brings credible information, second opinions, research and long term success in predicting markets.

I dont mind that kind of bias tbh, my problem with newspapers is they are just reporting what has happened or in this case repeating someone elses opinion.
Always have your own opinion for your own reasons formed from a personal perspective, I dont see they've done that

and don't forget that Nadeem Walayat still actively trades.

not only does he have the doom scenario each time he writes his article but then still goes and trades the markets. if it's that bad - why trade?

he obviously has his own agenda by putting out this information in the press through his own editorial or others and even contributions to web-sites to then trade against - classic bull trap.

unless you are in with this by feeding this information to this site or others or you don't realise. my thoughts are not the latter because you're an intelligent chap

dervish

StevieJ wrote: »

BR 0.5% :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl: You got a habit of saying the wrong thing at the wrong time :DThis is about buyers liquidity not affordability, they need big deposits whereas the actual mortgage costs would be fairly reasonable.

:rolleyes:
semantics...

stevetodd

StevieJ wrote: »

I am eying one of those Cornish holiday cottages

For personal use only or for renting out? The problems of managing it from afar puts me off, and I think management fees are rarely worth what you have to pay. If I could find someone local to clean and hand over keys etc I would consider it but it's a leap of faith buying first.

StevieJ

stevetodd wrote: »

For personal use only or for renting out? The problems of managing it from afar puts me off, and I think management fees are rarely worth what you have to pay. If I could find someone local to clean and hand over keys etc I would consider it but it's a leap of faith buying first.

Only joking to wind up the Celts

stevetodd

StevieJ wrote: »

Only joking to wind up the Celts

ahh I see, I better shut up then because I would get one if I could make it work. We are thinking maybe in 15 years or so we could sell up and move to Devon. Then being local we wouldn't have any distance barriers putting us off buying holiday cottages to rent out.

StevieJ

stevetodd wrote: »

ahh I see, I better shut up then because I would get one if I could make it work. We are thinking maybe in 15 years or so we could sell up and move to Devon. Then being local we wouldn't have any distance barriers putting us off buying holiday cottages to rent out.

You may end up with, you know who, as a neighbour :eek:

stevetodd

StevieJ wrote: »

You may end up with, you know who, as a neighbour :eek:

Oh no! he would probably scare away the tourists.

Graham, whereabouts in Devon do you live?