Halifax: House prices down -2.3% MoM, 17.7% YoY, 19.68% from peak.

angrypirate

chucky wrote: »

· The house price to earnings ratio – a key affordability measure - is at its lowest for six years. The house price to average earnings ratio has declined from a peak of 5.84 in July 2007 to an estimated 4.42 in February 2009; a fall of 24%. The ratio is at its lowest level for six years (February 2003: 4.41). The long-term average is 4.0.

A UK national average salary of £36,273 pa? Do you honestly believe that? Also, i thought the long-term average before this boom was 3.5 times salary???

ad44downey

chucky wrote: »

· The house price to earnings ratio – a key affordability measure - is at its lowest for six years. The house price to average earnings ratio has declined from a peak of 5.84 in July 2007 to an estimated 4.42 in February 2009; a fall of 24%. The ratio is at its lowest level for six years (February 2003: 4.41). The long-term average is 4.0.

When there's 3 million+ unemployed next year that long term average of 4.0 will seem wildly optimistic. The house price to average earnings ratio will be much closer to 3.0

Cannon_Fodder

chucky wrote: »

looking at those figures closer it just shows you where the real problem areas are - Northern Ireland averages out at a -32% drop.

surely that has to have some impact on the national average numbers

The same impact they had when NI boomed by 30%+ before the peak...

...so many who assume that they have enjoyed a 3x or 200% increase (or whatever) are mistaken as they never look at regional just the headline figures.

StevieJ

chucky wrote: »

· The house price to earnings ratio – a key affordability measure - is at its lowest for six years. The house price to average earnings ratio has declined from a peak of 5.84 in July 2007 to an estimated 4.42 in February 2009; a fall of 24%. The ratio is at its lowest level for six years (February 2003: 4.41). The long-term average is 4.0.

Yep, like I said, flattening in the spring, you can tell my calculation was based on clever calculation not just a finger in the air

Cat695

I like what this EA said

"We firmly believe that now and the next six months are the trough for house prices"

isn't that what they have been saying every month since it all started?

chucky

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

The same impact they had when NI boomed by 30%+ before the peak...

...so many who assume that they have enjoyed a 3x or 200% increase (or whatever) are mistaken as they never look at regional just the headline figures.

exactly my point that i have said every month, when they have gone up and when they go down - these national averages are a snap shot with too much or even too little coverage.

the most important part is regional affordability and it's relationship to the local/regional house price. drilling down into these numbers is where you are able to see where the bottom lies.

ad9898_3

StevieJ wrote: »

Yep, like I said, flattening in the spring, you can tell my calculation was based on clever calculation not just a finger in the air

I reckon there will be some flattening in the spring, flattening of a lot of empty new build flats in spring 2010.:D

ad44downey

Cat695 wrote: »

I like what this EA said

"We firmly believe that now and the next six months are the trough for house prices"

isn't that what they have been saying every month since it all started?

It was first uttered in 2007 I believe. And every month since. :rotfl:

chucky

ad9898 wrote: »

This is a fair point to make, but with the fear of job losses and 12 months of recession at least, mean people are taking little notice of this.

it depends what you read and how you interpret it
"Easter could bring some good news for the economy, with the worst of job cuts coming to an end."

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/UK-Economy---Worst-Of-Job-Losses-Could-Be-Over-By-Easter-A-CIPD-Report-Said/Article/200903115233109?lpos=Business_News_Your_Way_Region_1&lid=NewsYourWay_ARTICLE_15233109_UK_Economy_-_Worst_Of_Job_Losses_Could_Be_Over_By_Easter%2C_A_CIPD_Report_Said

StevieJ

ad9898 wrote: »

I reckon there will be some flattening in the spring, flattening of a lot of empty new build flats in spring 2010.:D

Hope so, that would nicely support the market way to many built anyway.