Halifax: House prices down -2.3% MoM, 17.7% YoY, 19.68% from peak.

Cannon_Fodder

mitchaa wrote: »

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/05_09_07HousePriceIndexAug2007.pdf

If you look at this link below, each and every monthly release is available to view..(They are directly linked to the original halifax document)

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-halifax-national.php

that's a useful link, as the Lloyds site doesn't let you view the old documents directly.

If you look at Jan's PDF it had already revised the December figure...

Dec 520.6 160,861 -1.6 -16.2 4.48e

Jan 530.7 163,966 1.9 -17.2 4.55e

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Sir_Humphrey wrote: »

Of course the Halifax index is fixed by the government - err - manipulation - flibble

Absolutely correct, but only when it goes up, on the way down, it's the 11th commandment.:D

stevetodd

ukcarper wrote: »

As someone who as almost paid for his house, has no desire to move and won’t go into negative equity unless house prices drop 95% in the next year. It’s quite amusing watching these arguments about how much house prices will drop with posters arguing not on facts but their vested interest I suspect that the overall fall will be some where between the two camps.

I am afraid that I have some bad news for you and that is that you are desperate! Despite the fact that my house has no mortgage on it apparantly I am desperate according to mbga9pgf. So no doubt you will also fall into this category too. I know this will probably come as a shock to you as it did to me. But I am still waiting to hear from mbga9pgf as to why I am desperate, so we have a chance that he is just a forum idiot and that we are in fact as well placed as we thought. Good luck.

Cannon_Fodder

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Waiting expectantly for the January positive value to be revised...

Mitchaa, actually, I've give you a freebie...

it looks like Jan has already been revised - upwards by +0.1%...!

mitchaa

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Figures get revised...

The amount by which December dropped has been revised to -1.6 instead of -2.2...

I'm surprised you did not notice, as it would have been useful evidence of house prices not falling as hard as people as previously said.

Waiting expectantly for the January positive value to be revised...

The % figures get a little confusing as Januarys figures were reported at +1.9% although on paper the actual increase was shown to be 2.5%.

Anyway that's not the point, Februarys losses cancelled out Januarys gains so we are no further forward than where we were back in December.

House prices may well fall 15% this year but instead of 12mths, there are now only 10 left to do it in

StevieJ

skap7309 wrote: »

Or -19.68% since Aug 07. I like that fact better.

Then again my forecast last year was -20% top to bottom and flattening in spring, still on
Optimistic I will give you that.

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ukcarper wrote: »

As someone who as almost paid for his house, has no desire to move and won’t go into negative equity unless house prices drop 95% in the next year. It’s quite amusing watching these arguments about how much house prices will drop with posters arguing not on facts but their vested interest I suspect that the overall fall will be some where between the two camps.

Maybe so, but sitting on the fence is boring, best just to jump in with the best VI lines you can come up with.:D

stevetodd

StevieJ wrote: »

Then again my forecast last year was -20% top to bottom and flattening in spring, still on
Optimistic I will give you that.

I've never really changed my view of around 35% down from peak, I think next year will see the bottom, but no price increase for a couple of years after that IMO

angrypirate

mitchaa wrote: »

Let's put this into perspective before we get carried away with ourselves here;)

Nov 08 - £163,605
Dec 08 - £159,896
Jan 09 - £163,966
Feb 09 - £160,327

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-halifax-national.php

So cries of losses of £3k this month, what about last months gains of over £4k?

Looking at the above figures, prices now are still higher than they were back in December more than 2 months ago now. So really, prices have still not fallen at all in 2009:rotfl:

2 down 10 to go i suppose.

£160,327/£199,770 x 100 = 19.74% down from peak. So still a long way off the 50/60/70% most of you are predicting:p

4k gains? What are you smoking? Lets use the non seasonally adjusted figures
168,158
162,848
158,437
159,818
159,208
Oh look, the NSA show that they only went up by 1.4k, not 4.2k.

Sir_Humphrey

The average MoM fall required to get the 17-18 YoY fall we are seeing is 1.7 - 1.8 % MoM (remember compounding). Just to give an idea of what a 'average' month should be like. Remember that there is a margin of error for all these figures. IMO, I think these stats would be better shown as boxplots, but I doubt the Daily Wail would understand them.