How Far Will the FTSE Fall? MoneySavingExperts Survey Results.

JoeCrystal

That is what I was thinking at the moment, M271. The lower it is, the better for first time investors to (hopefully) see the gains in long term.

simonleblank

I think the majority thought 3,500, was that the actual figure?

sabretoothtigger

Yea the majority was right though it was a pretty rough scale. Also it nearly rose back to 4000 before breaching 3500

Day's Range:4,335.01 - 4,393.07

52wk Range:3,460.70 - 6,226.20

Wonder what people think now, I'd still say the same 3000









http://www.dshort.com/charts/bear-recoveries.html?bears-since-1950

simonleblank

I think we are seeing a dead cat bounce!

tradetime

simonleblank wrote: »

I think we are seeing a dead cat bounce!

I wouldn't use the "dead cat bounce" label for this, it is a very powerful rally, a dead cat bounce is simply a reaction rally with little conviction. I do however believe this is a bear market rally built on hope and desperation and a degree of manipulation, and it has almost run its course for now, a 15-20% pullback however could see us run higher into the summer it depends how much hope and desperation there is and how long further bad news holds off.

turbobob

I've noticed the Dow and S&P 500 has closed on a low note for three days this week. Any significance to this?

turbobob

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

http://www.dshort.com/charts/bear-recoveries.html?bears-since-1950

Interesting graph. To get the drops in perspective I also think its important to have a look at what happened before. The Nasdaq was in a huge bubble (the "tech bubble") and bubbles always burst. See this graph. The Nikkei rose from under 10,000 to nearly 40,000 in 5 years prior to crashing, as you can see here. Could the same be said of the S&P/FTSE indexes?

tradetime

turbobob wrote: »

I've noticed the Dow and S&P 500 has closed on a low note for three days this week. Any significance to this?

I personally am much better with the short term, intraday, than the longer term, however I do play longer term in a limited capacity, I am currently short S&P from 904, 875 - 880 S&P is support for me, breach of 875 in a normal market condition would likely lead to 829 or possibly 798, 38% and 50% corrections of the primary move up. However this market is very erratic, (which makes me gald I am primarily an intraday trader), there is a phenomenon related to long weekends where the primary trend is reversed leading into the weekend, and this then reverses agiain after the weekend, thus if it holds true for this holiday, Monday and Tuesday were up, Wed, Thur,, Fri, were down therefore Monday should produce a long side trade, I have a breakeven stop now on my swing, hopefully the market erratics will negate the long weekend reversal, though it is a fairly high occurence.

tradetime

turbobob wrote: »

Interesting graph. To get the drops in perspective I also think its important to have a look at what happened before. The Nasdaq was in a huge bubble (the "tech bubble") and bubbles always burst. See this graph. The Nikkei rose from under 10,000 to nearly 40,000 in 5 years prior to crashing, as you can see here. Could the same be said of the S&P/FTSE indexes?

Very true, we often hear much talk about bubbles and also the Japanese stock market and ours currently, but I would suggest the Nikkei, was not in a bubble, it was in La la land, along with their property market

turbobob

tradetime wrote: »

Very true, we often hear much talk about bubbles and also the Japanese stock market and ours currently, but I would suggest the Nikkei, was not in a bubble, it was in La la land, along with their property market

:rotfl:

Interesting the Nikkei is actually at circa 1984 levels at the moment which I think is before it went into bubble territory (the data on ADVFN doesn't go back much before this). If that happened elsewhere, well it would wipe out a lot of peoples pensions.. Would translate to about 1200 on the DOW or under a 1000 on the FTSE100 :eek: