How Far Will the FTSE Fall? MoneySavingExperts Survey Results.

ftsesurvey

The survey results are now posted here as a new thread so as to be more likely to be seen by all of you that were good enough to reply.

Thanks to you all.

THESE ARE THE SURVEY RESULTS - THE ORIGINAL QUESTION POSED IS BELOW THE RESULTS:

There was the odd spoiler suggesting daft figures to try to mess up the averages, however this had been anticipated and for statistical purposes we were looking for the median position and not the mathematical average as this accommodates extremes and gives a clearer picture of a consensus opinion. We did not get 100 replies, although 100 was not really necessary as it was just a round figure to catch the eye. We had sufficient responses for this exercise, so thanks to all that replied.

The median of all opinions offered was 3,300.

20% of responders said below 3,000.
57% of responders said between 3,000 - 3,500
24% of responders said more than 3,500
The above are rounded, hence not totalling exactly 100%.

Thank you all.

THE ORIGINAL QUESTION:

I am conducting a survey. After 100 replies I will calculate the average of all opinions and give the result here.

The reason: A book 'Simplexity' (by Jeffrey Kluger) includes research which shows that the consensus figure arrived at by non-experts using gut feeling is frequently closer to the mark than can be explained by luck, and closer than the 'experts' (that wouldn't be hard I hear you say). So I want to try putting it to the test for real. Feel free to use the results when I give them at the end, or treat it just as a bit of fun.

Background:
In the last 12 months the FTSE high was 5,786 and the lowest is 3,665
The all time high was in 1999 at 6,930

Today (date of original post ) is it around 3,800. For current level right now see http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^ftse

Question:
What is the lowest you think the FTSE will fall to before a recovery starts?

You don't have to have any expertise, all guesstimates are welcome. No analysis or opinion necessary unless you want to. If you think the low has been reached already then you can give your answer as 3,800. So please add your figure. I will "Thank" all helpful replies.

Paul_Herring

Link to original thread: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1516133

sheslookinhot

Thanks for posting the results. It will be interesting to see how the FTSE moves in relation to your survey.

ftsesurvey

Looks like FTSE is on the slide again... For current level right now see http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^ftse

a7man

Lets hope the FTSE doesnt recover before 3300 then, bearing in mind in the past over a year it has fallen 75%, then rebounded 100% in a week. These rebounds can hit like a bullet train.

tradetime

An interesting exercise.

Arthurian

This website had 15.8 million visits in January. Wonder if the survey had an effect on the FTSE?

Old_Slaphead

a7man wrote: »

Lets hope the FTSE doesnt recover before 3300 then, bearing in mind in the past over a year it has fallen 75%, then rebounded 100% in a week. These rebounds can hit like a bullet train.

Refresh my ailing memory - when did it recover 100% in a week ???

hedger

very interesting topic :T
Im a 3,000 man meself

chopperharris

Arthurian wrote: »

This website had 15.8 million visits in January. Wonder if the survey had an effect on the FTSE?

Doubt it , 16 million hits in january sounds like a lot , most will be multiples of same users.

Of those same users how many will be in the market actively and regularly , I would think its a very low percentage ....perhaps a fraction of a percent.

Of that fraction of a percent of users how many will have enough big money clout behind them to affect a market through buying and selling shares .... a very small part a fraction of the fraction of a percent.However everyday folk owrried about cash and not getting credit reduces spending , which affects share prices just as much if not more so.

Its a recession , pure and simple.

Paul_Herring

Arthurian wrote: »

This website had 15.8 million visits in January. Wonder if the survey had an effect on the FTSE?

Highly unlikely, especially since the number you should be looking at is the number of times the thread has been viewed (1,525 at the time of writing.)

As as pointed out earlier, these won't be unique views, but will include repeat visits.