House prices at April 2004 levels? where I cannot find them

dopester

Dan: wrote: »

I didn't mean just repos - If none of the above applies people will not want to sell in the current climate. Ive heard it time and time again "we are thinking of selling when the market picks up"

Perhaps people who held RBS shares at £8 each felt the same way, when they went down to £6. Won't sell, and will wait till the market picks up. Same again at £5 and £4, and the same stubborn streak at £3, £2, and £1 and less.

Guess what, even though they weren't selling, the value of their holding fell in value.

It is exactly the same thing with property. People might not have their property on the market, no desire to sell, they may have no mortgage at all, no debt problems whatsoever...

...but the values are determined by the market, by those who do sell in their local areas.

If it somehow comforts you property doesn't get affected in value and stays at peak whilst the wider market crashes down from those selling and buying over this year and the next and the year after, at lower prices, then fine. It is not reality though.

Values are found from those who transact, not those who stay in the market doing nothing. They are at the mercy of the market.

Cleaver

dopester wrote: »

Perhaps people who held RBS shares at £8 each felt the same way, when they went down to £6. Won't sell, and will wait till the market picks up. Same again at £5 and £4, and the same stubborn streak at £3, £2, and £1 and less.

Guess what, even though they weren't selling, the value of their holding fell in value.

It is exactly the same thing with property. People might not have their property on the market, no desire to sell, they may have no mortgage at all, no debt problems whatsoever...

...but the values are determined by the market, by those who do sell in their local areas.

If it somehow comforts you property doesn't get affected in value and stays at peak whilst the wider market crashes down from those selling and buying over this year and the next and the year after, at lower prices, then fine. It is not reality though.

Values are found from those who transact, not those who stay in the market doing nothing. They are at the mercy of the market.

I actually agree with everything you say.

But I just can't help thinking that there is an intrinsic value in property that there isn't in a paper share (i.e., you can live in a house).

lostinrates

Cleaver wrote: »

I actually agree with everything you say.

But I just can't help thinking that there is an intrinsic value in property that there isn't in a paper share (i.e., you can live in a house).

But, you can't live in a whole load of houses at the same time. That reduces the intrinsic value if you have a few.

skap7309

lostinrates wrote: »

But, you can't live in a whole load of houses at the same time. That reduces the intrinsic value if you have a few.

Plus everyone elses when it comes to valuing / marketing it.

dopester

Cleaver wrote: »

I actually agree with everything you say.

But I just can't help thinking that there is an intrinsic value in property that there isn't in a paper share (i.e., you can live in a house).

True, there are other variables with property.

If I'm correct with the crash continuing for at least another three year, as more sellers at the margins have been forced to lower their prices to transact, then it will be like those RBS shares at £8 each.

A long way back for those who believe their properties are somehow worth so much extra value, just because it is a house which has a purpose as being a useful home (not a share), and somehow deserve to be at peak prices, when the property next-door is available on the real market for something like 30-50% less.

Yes, you can live in a house. Unfortunately for me, many sellers seem to think I should have to pay insane sums, or get in to insane debt, to have that privilege.

Cleaver

lostinrates wrote: »

But, you can't live in a whole load of houses at the same time. That reduces the intrinsic value if you have a few.

True.

What I mean though (with my hugely limited knowledge of these things) is that there just has to be a natural bottom to the price of 99% of properties. For example, if house prices dropped 90% I would get myself a nice 3 bed penthouse flat in Manchester and probably a little pad in Scotland somewhere for weekends. If I would do this, and I don't earn tonnes of money, then everyone else would. It simply won't happen.

It's funny really when people on here say "property will fall 70%". My first reaction is a bit of panic. Then I just remember that if they did fall 70% I could live in a palace, so I immeditaley become calm.

skap7309

dopester wrote: »

They are overpriced and will not sell at what they are asking. With asking-prices, you can negotiate and put in lower offers you realise?

I agree dopester however a new trend is appearing on Rightmove where a large number of properties are coming onto the market with O.I.E.O. I know it is easy enough to go onto the next one but frustrating at the same time to see people really think the crash is just a make believe rumor.

[Deleted User]

A house near us(but smaller than ours)has been on the market for 12 months,it started out at 120k this week it was advertised at 75k,we had our house valued in late 2007 with the intention of moving in 2008,it was valued at 155k,i know for a fact that if we actually wanted to sell it (as opposed to putting it up for sale)we would be lucky to get 120k.Houses that you would have expected to see for sale at 180/190 k a year ago are now on sale at 140/145 some even lower.As for flats they cant give them away so many new ones have been built in the last 5 years its a joke.

lostinrates

Cleaver wrote: »

True.

What I mean though (with my hugely limited knowledge of these things) is that there just has to be a natural bottom to the price of 99% of properties. For example, if house prices dropped 90% I would get myself a nice 3 bed penthouse flat in Manchester and probably a little pad in Scotland somewhere for weekends. If I would do this, and I don't earn tonnes of money, then everyone else would. It simply won't happen.

It's funny really when people on here say "property will fall 70%". My first reaction is a bit of panic. Then I just remember that if they did fall 70% I could live in a palace, so I immeditaley become calm.

Of course. i think, logically the bottom value is the price of the materials and the land price. Plot prices seem to me to be all over the show. Rebuild prices on building insurance always shocks me...:) There are the labour charges of course, but I don't think one can account full value to them: most people could do some degree of that themsleves, again, should they be bothered. Its a bit banal though, my reasoning, I admit that.

incher

O.i.e.o ??