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Debate House Prices


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House prices fall 1.8% in feb

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Comments

  • stephen163
    stephen163 Posts: 1,302 Forumite
    They are using a simple exponential fit. It's a few clicks in excel. The 2.9% trend is the per annum annual growth since the start of the data set. Where does RPI fit it into it? Oh, to calculate the real value of previous house prices, got it.

    A better trendline is a high order polynomial as this actually shows the peaks and troughs, though this is less intuitive than just a simple, expnentially increasing upward curve.
  • stephen163
    stephen163 Posts: 1,302 Forumite
    stevetodd wrote: »
    How? I bought it 3.5 years ago how have I lost money?

    Down the back of the sofa?
  • stevetodd
    stevetodd Posts: 1,016 Forumite
    stephen163 wrote: »
    Down the back of the sofa?

    Well yes, but when we moved the sofa I found that £3.50 last month...yahooo!
  • Lotus-eater
    Lotus-eater Posts: 10,789 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    I'm confused. Last year in Feb 08 the trendline on Nationwides house price graph was at 2.8%. We have only had drops in price and the trend is now using 2.9%.

    Why?
    Freedom is not worth having if it does not include the freedom to make mistakes.
  • stephen163
    stephen163 Posts: 1,302 Forumite
    Because the actual curve is still slightly above the trendline. In effect, the trendline is still trying to catch up with it. I suspect the crossing over point will come next month and then the trend will begin to fall.
  • Lotus-eater
    Lotus-eater Posts: 10,789 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    stephen163 wrote: »
    Because the actual curve is still slightly above the trendline. In effect, the trendline is still trying to catch up with it. I suspect the crossing over point will come next month and then the trend will begin to fall.
    Ahh yes of course, sorry bit dim this morning.

    And that program on body clocks said we are at our most intelligent in the mornings.... not looking good is it? :D
    Freedom is not worth having if it does not include the freedom to make mistakes.
  • MrDT wrote: »
    Are you telling me that New Gold Dream wasn't Mr B?

    He started posting a the day after Mr B's most recent 'farewell' thread. Stopped once Mr B returned.

    And, well, it was just obviously him ok :D

    edit: !!!!, sorry, not another sock puppet thread. Umm, yeah, houses, int they cheap these days? When I were a boy you had to take out 100 year mortgages that your kids paid off after you were dead an' buried etc etc...

    Not guilty dt.
  • Cat695
    Cat695 Posts: 3,647 Forumite
    Jesus I've been out the country for one day and its all gone mad......a good read (for me at least)

    now back to my beer.....Au revoir
    If you find yourself in a fair fight, then you have failed to plan properly


    I've only ever been wrong once! and that was when I thought I was wrong but I was right
  • Cat695 wrote: »
    Jesus I've been out the country for one day and its all gone mad......a good read (for me at least)

    now back to my beer.....Au revoir

    Where are you?
  • Dan:_4
    Dan:_4 Posts: 3,795 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    ad44downey wrote: »
    Oh the wonderful irony of it all. Dan: categorically states that he's no-one's sock puppet, etc. blah, blah, blah. Then who thanks his post? Yes, step forward chucky. It's beautiful. :T

    :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
    Thanks for the laugh Downey, it's quite boring tonight!
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