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How Far Will FTSE Fall? I Need 100 Replies!
ftsesurvey
Posts: 17 Forumite
THESE ARE THE SURVEY RESULTS - THE ORIGINAL QUESTION POSED IS BELOW THE RESULTS:
There was the odd spoiler suggesting daft figures to try to mess up the averages, however this had been anticipated and for statistical purposes we were looking for the median position and not the mathematical average as this accommodates extremes and gives a clearer picture of a consensus opinion. We did not get 100 replies, although 100 was not really necessary as it was just a round figure to catch the eye. We had sufficient responses for this exercise, so thanks to all that replied.
The median of all opinions offered was 3,300.
20% of responders said below 3,000.
57% of responders said between 3,000 - 3,500
24% of responders said more than 3,500
Thank you all.
THE ORIGINAL QUESTION:
I am conducting a survey. After 100 replies I will calculate the average of all opinions and give the result here.
The reason: A book 'Simplexity' (by Jeffrey Kluger) includes research which shows that the consensus figure arrived at by non-experts using gut feeling is frequently closer to the mark than can be explained by luck, and closer than the 'experts' (that wouldn't be hard I hear you say). So I want to try putting it to the test for real. Feel free to use the results when I give them at the end, or treat it just as a bit of fun.
Background:
In the last 12 months the FTSE high was 5,786 and the lowest is 3,665
The all time high was in 1999 at 6,930
Today (date of original post ) is it around 3,800. For current level right now see http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Eftse
Question:
What is the lowest you think the FTSE will fall to before a recovery starts?
You don't have to have any expertise, all guesstimates are welcome. No analysis or opinion necessary unless you want to. If you think the low has been reached already then you can give your answer as 3,800. So please add your figure. I will "Thank" all helpful replies.
There was the odd spoiler suggesting daft figures to try to mess up the averages, however this had been anticipated and for statistical purposes we were looking for the median position and not the mathematical average as this accommodates extremes and gives a clearer picture of a consensus opinion. We did not get 100 replies, although 100 was not really necessary as it was just a round figure to catch the eye. We had sufficient responses for this exercise, so thanks to all that replied.
The median of all opinions offered was 3,300.
20% of responders said below 3,000.
57% of responders said between 3,000 - 3,500
24% of responders said more than 3,500
Thank you all.
THE ORIGINAL QUESTION:
I am conducting a survey. After 100 replies I will calculate the average of all opinions and give the result here.
The reason: A book 'Simplexity' (by Jeffrey Kluger) includes research which shows that the consensus figure arrived at by non-experts using gut feeling is frequently closer to the mark than can be explained by luck, and closer than the 'experts' (that wouldn't be hard I hear you say). So I want to try putting it to the test for real. Feel free to use the results when I give them at the end, or treat it just as a bit of fun.
Background:
In the last 12 months the FTSE high was 5,786 and the lowest is 3,665
The all time high was in 1999 at 6,930
Today (date of original post ) is it around 3,800. For current level right now see http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Eftse
Question:
What is the lowest you think the FTSE will fall to before a recovery starts?
You don't have to have any expertise, all guesstimates are welcome. No analysis or opinion necessary unless you want to. If you think the low has been reached already then you can give your answer as 3,800. So please add your figure. I will "Thank" all helpful replies.
0
Comments
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three thousand0
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2900
............. Savings Total so far for 2023: £8,062.580 -
If I knew I wouldn't be faffing around on here.
FWIW I'm buying in small chunks now - I don't think it will fall below 3500 (but then again, I'm usually usually wrong).0 -
Its going to rally to 5000ish then when every man & his dog is on board crash to 2500 within 3 yrs and trade sideways for a decade. Don't want to be too bullish you see."Didn't I try to Warn them I said !"
David Essex War of the Worlds."Thats Ancient History, Been There! Done That!" Hercules0 -
3450.....................................“I could see that, if not actually disgruntled, he was far from being gruntled.” - P.G. Wodehouse0
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3,265
FIRE !!!0 -
3150 :eek: :eek: :mad: 0
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Probably around 3000. 0
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useless excercise nobody knows
What will be the winning lottery numbers on Saturday?0 -
2,371 (or thereabouts)'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'0
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