Shortfall of 1m homes by 2010 could send prices soaring when recovery comes, says Pre

1echidna

Printing money may well cause inflation and houses be seen as a good investment again. But taxes and to some extent interest rates will have to rise due to stupendous gov't debt making affordability an issue for at least ten years. We will all (or at least very mostly all) be impoverished in the aftermath of the present mess. I believe there will be a paradigm shift with it becoming the norm with more (perhaps ultimately most) people living in flats.

pickles110564

fatpig wrote: »

Those jokers are like a broken record. They should be putting their money where their mouthes are and building as many homes as they can now then and then they'll be able to cash in 2010.

Baconboy yet another soundbite but no substance.

mewbie_2

pickles110564 wrote: »

Baconboy yet another soundbite but no substance.

Et tu Picklu?

epz_2

arnt a million plus poles planing to sod off now they can earn more at home with our currency is doing a zimbabway so problem solved.

mizzbiz

Has there been such a population increase since 1999 that there is now a ousing shortage, when you take into account the number of new homes built alongside?

Components of population change, UK


I've always thought that the "Housing Shortage" propoganda was one of the most influential factors in hyping up the market in the past years. It has kept the market on the boil as people, esp. FTB's, panic that they will never be able to buy a home, despite there being no statistical evidence to support the theory.

besonders1

yep there is a shortfall of homes alright, - sensibly priced houses. Not too sure about houses going up to 2007 levels again, where would we get the money to fund such a purchase?, I doubt banks would approve if buyers get repo'ed a year later! Utter Rubbish!

mizzbiz

Yes, the problem is that there is a limit to how much people can pay back against their salary. You can borrow plenty of money, but whether you can afford to pay it back, even on a monthly basis, is another matter.

If house prices go even higher, then no-one will be buying at all anyway, and the market will fall naturally.

The only way to sustain and increse house prices whilst salaries remain static is to increase mortgage terms. And who is going to want to sell their soul for a 60 year + mortgage?

ukcarper

I am not one of the people that think houses prices will crash by 70% and never recover. But the banks are never going to lend at the high salary multipliers they have been lending at.

I'm more optimistic than a lot of people on here but I can’t see house prices recovering to 2007 prices until peoples wages have increase enough to enable them to buy at that level with more realistic multipliers say 4x and I don’t think that will happen in 5years.

As for 60 year mortgages the repayments on a 60 year mortgage would be 80% of a 30 year Mortgage

olly300

ukcarper wrote: »

I am not one of the people that think houses prices will crash by 70% and never recover. But the banks are never going to lend at the high salary multipliers they have been lending at.

They will.

It may take 50-80 years when most of us are dead or very elderly, but they will.

Unfortunately people seem to forget tales from history.

ukcarper wrote: »

I'm more optimistic than a lot of people on here but I can’t see house prices recovering to 2007 prices until peoples wages have increase enough to enable them to buy at that level with more realistic multipliers say 4x and I don’t think that will happen in 5years.

Agreed.

besonders1

A 60 year mortgage OMG - I don't even think everyone would live to pay it off. Maybe the children would need to complete the remaining years in order to inherit the house!