this is interesting: House prices fell in last quarter 2006

Woby_Tide

wibble68 wrote:

In fact, in my area (Oxfordshire) the average price of a semi has lost 1k in the last 18 months.

Which completely contradicts an article in a local paper which suggested that house price inflation was still rampant.

Needless to say the article was written by a local EA.

crumbs, how on earth have they managed to make every house in Oxfordshire semi-detached?

nelly_2

ftb's down to 7% now aparently.

meanmachine_2

I gave up on these bogus "indices" long ago. Their seasonal adjustments are totally within their discretion, which means that they can basically do what they like.

For example they continue to report rise after rise, then 6 months later the average house price is stll IDENTICAL to what it was at the start.

Anyway, I keep an eye on two areas - a South London borough and a North Essex town.

The borough picked up a bit at the start of the year but has since slipped back. Volume though still seems OK - city bonuses keeping it going?

In Essex, though, the market is like a graveyard. Very very dead. And prices are falling - a little bit. Nothing too dramatic.

Just my two cents.

Feels like the market's treading water - waiting for something postive to lift it, or negative to bring it down.

wibble68_2

Woby_Tide wrote:

crumbs, how on earth have they managed to make every house in Oxfordshire semi-detached?

Your sarcasm has just cost me another 10 mins of research.

Allow me to be more specific.

In the last 18 months in Oxfordshire the changes are:-

Detached 19k down
Semi 1k down
Terraced 1k down
Flats no change

lush_walrus

exil wrote:

Sorry, that isn't true. The EAs will tell you the ASKING price for property. The Land Registry has the ACTUAL prices. So if there is a slowdown in the market, it will show up in the Land Registry figures. They record every single house sale in the country.

In my opinion, it is completely true, granted EAs display the asking price but if prices fall, then guess what so do the asking prices. What you offer yourself is always up to you as an individual, and should always be based on what other properties you have seen for a simular amount of money and weighing up if the one you want to offer on is worth more or less. Its all a very simple process.

Statistics are always just that, two houses can be next door to each other in the same street, one is a dump the other immaculate, and bingo two different prices. Statistically, if they were to be sold a year apart, the statistics will be warped into the market appearing to drop (if the nice house was sold first) or appearing to be stable or whatever. Where as in reality no two houses that arent brand new or very nearly new, are ever worth exactly the same, I guarantee you.

Deemy

According to the 'statistics' House prices nearly went negative in Sept 05, but then magically bounced :rolleyes:



The land registry data suggests that they did NOT bounce and infact the trend continued lower ! Thus resulting in negative house price inflation.

The Nationwide and Halifax being aware of the consquences of negative year on year house price inflation appear to have attempted supported the market ! By using their adjustment BS mechanisms !

The truth is that the house prices are likely declining, albeit at a slow rate.

This implies that at soem time the indices will turn sharply lower so as to reflect the true trend when their lies become transparent.

Bestthingsinlifearefree

The Land Regisry Figures state that the average house price in England & Wales has gone UP 4.6% in the last 12 months.

Which confirms the fact that house prices ALWAYS go UP in the medium / to long run.

Woby_Tide

wibble68 wrote:

Your sarcasm has just cost me another 10 mins of research.

Allow me to be more specific.

In the last 18 months in Oxfordshire the changes are:-

Detached 19k down
Semi 1k down
Terraced 1k down
Flats no change

and the newspaper report, was that detailing prices over the previous 18 months too? If you provided the info in the first place I wouldn't be dubious that someone may be manipulating figures to fit an argument.....just like the EA's and banks of course

devils_advocate

Bestthingsinlifearefree wrote:

Which confirms the fact that house prices ALWAYS go UP in the medium / to long run.

Your statement is quite correct on the historical view, as far as it goes. However, looking at the longer term historical trend, the cause of house prices going up has been inflation. Think of the 1970's, for example. Similarly, the cause of recent house price rises has been (relatively) low interest rates. What is far more significant is relative interest rates, ie the gap between actual interest rates and inflation.

meanmachine_2

Bestthingsinlifearefree wrote:

The Land Regisry Figures state that the average house price in England & Wales has gone UP 4.6% in the last 12 months.

Which confirms the fact that house prices ALWAYS go UP in the medium / to long run.

Of course they did. By around 7% a year, in line with wage inflation of around 7% a year.

But in the 21st century, thanks to globalisation, wage inflation is now down to around 3%. I know lots of people whose salaries haven't budged in more than 5 years!!

And house prices ain't going nowhere for the next 5-10 years while FTBers remain at historically low rates.

Used to be 60% of the market, now down to 7%.

It really is the oddest market. Prices are driven to such heights that 90% of the population couldn't afford to buy back the houses they live in!! It's hilarious, if you think about it.