this is interesting: House prices fell in last quarter 2006

Bjornki

look at following link:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4689954.stm

Yes house prices fell last year while the mob consisting of the mortgage lenders and estate agents try to make us believe the opposite. The only indepent organisation, land registry, says that prices dropped.

Should we never listen to the mortgage lenders and estate agents when they present us their figures?

nelly_2

But were only in the 1st quarter of 2006 are the bbc into telling the future, although I agree they will be dropping then.

village_life

it also says that the annualised figures still showed growth of 4.6% - its not uncommon for the housing market to be slower over the dark months - perhaps the dip is a manifistation of that?

lush_walrus

Listen to no one, go out there and see for yourself. If you are thinking of buying, go to the EAs in the area you want and see the prices and moniter it yourself. Statistics are not going to help anything if in reality you experience something else.

nmiah786

lush_walrus wrote:

Listen to no one, go out there and see for yourself. If you are thinking of buying, go to the EAs in the area you want and see the prices and moniter it yourself. Statistics are not going to help anything if in reality you experience something else.

Could not agree with you more. I've been monitoring the area I'm interested in for the last two years. Guess what, prices havent dropped a single bit, if anything they have increased. Always can an eye out in the area your interested in and monitor for a few months, that should be a good indication for the prices in that particular area.

exil

lush_walrus wrote:

Listen to no one, go out there and see for yourself. If you are thinking of buying, go to the EAs in the area you want and see the prices and moniter it yourself. Statistics are not going to help anything if in reality you experience something else.

Sorry, that isn't true. The EAs will tell you the ASKING price for property. The Land Registry has the ACTUAL prices. So if there is a slowdown in the market, it will show up in the Land Registry figures. They record every single house sale in the country.

mystic_trev

Actually the LR figures don't compare "like with like" due to the time lag. You need to wait for next qtrs figs to compare with the current ones from Nationwide and due from Halifax.

I expect to see a robust spring for the Housing market, followed by a stonking start to the crash in the 3rd and 4th qtrs. House prices are now around 40% above trend and there will be some kind of correction soon. All (of course) IMVHO

mystic_trev

Compare this

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=406820&in_page_id=57&ct=5

with this

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4689954.stm

You wouldn't believe they were both talking about the same set of Data!

exil

Yes, it's a reminder that it was newspapers, not governments, that invented "spin". Start off with the story you want to tell, and then massage the figures the fit the story.

Woby_Tide

exil wrote:

Start off with the story you want to tell, and then massage the figures the fit the story.

I thought that was the golden rule for every house price topic on this forum?

wibble68_2

mystic_trev wrote:

Compare this

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=406820&in_page_id=57&ct=5

with this

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4689954.stm

You wouldn't believe they were both talking about the same set of Data!

It's getting to be very predictable that certain groups and parts of the media are trying to convince people that the housing market is still on the up.

In reality the housing market is at best flat.

In fact, in my area (Oxfordshire) the average price of a semi has lost 1k in the last 18 months.

Which completely contradicts an article in a local paper which suggested that house price inflation was still rampant.

Needless to say the article was written by a local EA.