My house up 8.8% in the last quarter!!

LouBlue

Depressing reading when you are trying to sell.



Change in last quarter: -9.1%

Change in last year: -11.5%

smartn

Well, in my area apparently detached prices dropped 36.4% in the last qtr. Strange when flats only dropped 11.4%. Large pinch of salt with these figures I think.

IveSeenTheLight

beingjdc wrote: »

So they admit it's nonsense, then. If someone sells a castle, house prices rocket. If a BTL investor unloads a block of poky studio flats, house prices collapse.

Jolly good, as you were.

Isn't that how all the various stats are worked out but others are on a monthly basis.
Surely a 3 month spread give a better average than reducing to one months figures

beingjdc

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Isn't that how all the various stats are worked out but others are on a monthly basis.
Surely a 3 month spread give a better average than reducing to one months figures

No. Halifax, Nationwide, Land Registry and CLG are all mix-adjusted. They assume that a certain percentage of properties are castles, terraces, 2-bed flats, studios, caravan park plots, etc, regardless of the proportion that actually change hand in a particular month, and adjust accordingly.

IveSeenTheLight

beingjdc wrote: »

No. Halifax, Nationwide, Land Registry and CLG are all mix-adjusted. They assume that a certain percentage of properties are castles, terraces, 2-bed flats, studios, caravan park plots, etc, regardless of the proportion that actually change hand in a particular month, and adjust accordingly.

So what's your reason that Halifax figures were up 1.9% in January?
Others on here were arguing that it was because a higher percentage of more expensive properties were sold.

Dithering_Dad

My little village isn't on the figures, but the next largest town is and they're looking at -4% in the quarter and -8.7% in the year.

A builder has just completed a block of nice apartments, just off the centre of the village and they've all been pretty much snapped up. I know one of the people who got one and he bought for himself rather than being a BTLer. Dunno about the rest of the apartments.

This is why I keep banging on about not worrying about National Average statistics (or even regional stats) and to start becoming an expert in your target area. As someone else has rightly pointed out - some areas will drop more than others and some may not even drop at all. It's no use looking at national figures that include hugely overpopulated and down-at-heel London boroughs if you're looking at buying in a sought after Cheshire village. By the time the 'averages' bottom out, the area you're looking at could well have been climbing for months. At the very least, your selected area could have bottomed out and you're paying rent for months when you could have been in your place and paying down your mortgage.

IveSeenTheLight

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

My little village isn't on the figures, but the next largest town is and they're looking at -4% in the quarter and -8.7% in the year.

A builder has just completed a block of nice apartments, just off the centre of the village and they've all been pretty much snapped up. I know one of the people who got one and he bought for himself rather than being a BTLer. Dunno about the rest of the apartments.

This is why I keep banging on about not worrying about National Average statistics (or even regional stats) and to start becoming an expert in your target area. As someone else has rightly pointed out - some areas will drop more than others and some may not even drop at all. It's no use looking at national figures that include hugely overpopulated and down-at-heel London boroughs if you're looking at buying in a sought after Cheshire village. By the time the 'averages' bottom out, the area you're looking at could well have been climbing for months. At the very least, your selected area could have bottomed out and you're paying rent for months when you could have been in your place and paying down your mortgage.

Pretty much bang on what I've been saying for the last year or so

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=898381

Jonbvn

In my area the price of flats is massively skewing the stats with 20%+ drops. When I look at houses the changes in prices is around 3-5% (down) in the last quarter.

Bottom line - the headline stats are irrelevant.

Dithering_Dad

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Pretty much bang on what I've been saying for the last year or so

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=898381

It just always struck me as a little odd to be worrying about National Statistics when buying a house in a specific area. Even more strange is when someone who has been researching their area for a long while and posts on here that they have just decided to buy, is then met with a torrent of abuse (such as 'Welcome to negative equity, mate') from people who live at the other end of the country, have no idea about the buyers circumstances or about the buyers location and are merely quoting National Stats. I just hope that people aren't put off from buying at the right time in their area just because of extreme views from the HPC militants.

It doesn't take much effort to get to know the local estate agents and get friendly with them or to become and expert in an area (especially since the advent of the internet). When I was looking for my first house, an estate agent I befriended phoned me to tell me about a house in my target area that had just been reduced and gave me details about the seller (i.e. that the owner had died and left it to his niece and 2 nephews and that they were desperate to pick up their inheritance). I put in a daft offer (house was reduced to £50k and I put in an offer of £40k). They refused initially, so I let them stew and think about the fact that they were not actually 'losing' £3.33k each, but gaining £13.33k each! They got back to me within the week and the deal was done. I found out from the land registry that the owner had originally paid £50k for the house in the eighties (I bought in the nineties).

I bought a couple of years before the 'bottom' of the market, yet got such a good deal that I 'beat the bottom'. Not that I was worried about the market by then - I had bought and was busy renovating the house. Had this forum been around, perhaps I would have hesitated due to peer pressure and not bought. Incidently I sold that property for £140k when I moved up to my current home in 2002.

Really2

beingjdc wrote: »

So they admit it's nonsense, then. If someone sells a castle, house prices rocket. If a BTL investor unloads a block of poky studio flats, house prices collapse.

Jolly good, as you were.

But the BBC catagories are split in to Detached, Flat, semi, terraced so you could tell if that was the case.