My house up 8.8% in the last quarter!!

Really2

I would say two things of the Shropshire, West Mids, wales border areas.

A) They are a place people usualy down size to from the south etc.(retirement etc)
The housing seems fairly affordable.

Perhaps that is why they are not crashing so hard in certain places.

We can not expect to see the same falls in all ares.

Jim_B_3

carolt wrote: »

So in my area, semis, terraces and flats are all down, by a lot, but because detached house prices are up by 30%, the average is up a little.

If that's in a quarter, that's an annual rate of (a lot) more than doubling. We didn't see anything like that in the middle of the boom, and it seems remarkably unlikely that we're seeing it now. So few houses are selling today that a handful of top end selling can play merry hell with the stats, which were never really that reliable anyway.

carolt

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Sorry carolt, I cannot believe you are saying some properties are up 30% in this climate.
You feeling okay?

p.s. gotta doubt the figures sorry. they seem a little like their off the top of your head tu justify other prices are going down

No, I'm not saying that.

I'm not saying the same properties are up 30% over what they would have sold for last year, assuming they'd been on the market.

I'm arguing that - I think - it reflects that out of all the properties for sale, it is the top end of the market which is faring best.

On the contrary, far from prices overall being up 30%, prices of semis/terraces and flats were all down by about 5-15% in the last quarter, in my area, in line with what I would have expected.

I'm saying that the overall mean for the area has been slanted by the fact that the figures are not adjusted for property type.

So, put simply, if last year 100 terraces sold for 100K each, the average price was 100K. If this year, 1 detached mansion sells for 5 million, average prices are now 5 million.

But to draw conclusions about the value of your own house from this would be dangerous.

Cannon_Fodder

Jim_B wrote: »

That's an annual price hike of over a third, which we didn't see even during the most ridiculous part of the boom.As such, I am suspicious and I wonder if perhaps the data set is too small to be reliable.

Small dataset seems likely;

Oswestry; 76 sales.

Even Shetland Isles has more turnover usually; 89 sales.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/html/rd.stm



Wasn't Hartlepool an anomaly in the previous quarter? If BBC are correct that December applies that is 2 quarters where Hartlepool has been top of the picks... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/regions/html/region1.stm
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=456382&in_page_id=57


Looks like small print is wrong.

Really2

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Small dataset seems likely;

Oswestry; 76 sales.

Even Shetland Isles has more turnover usually; 89 sales.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/html/rd.stm


The population of Oswestry is lower than the Shetland Isles (on google it says 17,000 Oswestry and 23,000 shetland isles)

Dont forget the shetland isles is a big area.

IveSeenTheLight

carolt wrote: »

No, I'm not saying that.

I'm not saying the same properties are up 30% over what they would have sold for last year, assuming they'd been on the market.

I'm arguing that - I think - it reflects that out of all the properties for sale, it is the top end of the market which is faring best.

On the contrary, far from prices overall being up 30%, prices of semis/terraces and flats were all down by about 5-15% in the last quarter, in my area, in line with what I would have expected.

I'm saying that the overall mean for the area has been slanted by the fact that the figures are not adjusted for property type.

So, put simply, if last year 100 terraces sold for 100K each, the average price was 100K. If this year, 1 detached mansion sells for 5 million, average prices are now 5 million.

But to draw conclusions about the value of your own house from this would be dangerous.

Ahhh, this is different from what appeared your quote was saying i.e. you keep a close eye on your area and detached house prices are up 30%

you meant sales were up for (above local average house price) detached houses 30%.

Conrad

All this data is nonsense.
Just ask your'e local EA.
Carolt - detatched prices up 30% - no way. I live in an area twice in the top 10 on CH4s best places, and our friends are from Epsom, which I think was also in the top 10 twice, and we are both certain prices have fallen about 15 - 20% for upper end

Really2

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Small dataset seems likely;

Oswestry; 76 sales.

Even Shetland Isles has more turnover usually; 89 sales.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/html/rd.stm



Wasn't Hartlepool an anomaly in the previous quarter? If BBC are correct that December applies that is 2 quarters where Hartlepool has been top of the picks... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/regions/html/region1.stm
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=456382&in_page_id=57


Looks like small print is wrong.

Actualy after you posted that I looked at your hartlypool example
It looks like the cheaper areas in countys are doing the best.
Looks like people are moving from exspensive areas to cheaper ones.
Makes sense to me.

carolt

Conrad wrote: »

All this data is nonsense.
Just ask your'e local EA.
Carolt - detatched prices up 30% - no way. I live in an area twice in the top 10 on CH4s best places, and our friends are from Epsom, which I think was also in the top 10 twice, and we are both certain prices have fallen about 15 - 20% for upper end

Oh dear, obviously not made my point very clear.

I was talking about 1 area - mine - and a very small data set.

And saying that it's probably not the 'ordinary' 3 or 4 bed detached's which are selling at 30% more than they would have done last year, but that 1 or 2 mansions selling completely mess up the averages.

I know from the figures I get monthly from various sold prices sites that vasically only a handful of properties have sold in the ast 3 months in my area - there wwere zero properties sold for 2 months running!

So clearly 1 or 2 high priced properties that do sell will give a very odd tilt to the averages.

Radiantsoul

theblindman wrote: »

'one swallow doesnt make a summer' wins a prize

Can make for quite a night though!