general election. When. It can`t come soon enough

Rochdale_Pioneers

I know its been easy for Tory supporters to get giddy about opinion polls over the last year or so. I think the thing you need to remember is how volatile the electorate are - since 2006 we have had a double digit Tory lead, a double digit Labour lead, a landslide Tory lead, a very small Tory lead and now double digits again.

That is an awful lot of very big movement in such a short space of time. That kind of volatility in the midst of what is now politically uncharted water means that there is no given in politics. Brown is not finished. Cameron is not a shoo-in. In my opinion all results are possible in a spectrum with a comfortable Labour majority at one end through a hung parliament, a national unity government to a Tory landslide at the other end. You simply cannot tell at the moment, and those of you gleefully saying "everyone blames Brown" should read the polls more carefully. All the recent polls have been asking who is to blame, and beyond the headline party leads its been a strong and consistent message - the bankers are to blame.

Cameron needs to close the deal with the electorate but doesn't have a deal to offer. He cannot say confidently what his government would do when elected because like the rest of us he doesn't have the faintest idea what the country will look like next summer. Until he has something to offer there are no guarantees and no shoo-ins. People may well be angry with the government, but if that feels like a safer option than an opposition offering risk and few answers, the government may well be seen as the lesser of two evils. As Major was in 92.

abaxas

People forget the most important factor in winning an election.

"Not being in office"

Any current government is always at at disadvantage, as it is hard for them to change things and go back on what they did before. Eg Gordon Brown promised 'no more boom and bust', he's hardly going to turn around and make himself look like a plonker is he! While the people not in power don't have to worry about this baggage.

We'll get a conservative government in 2010 as we need change. Just like we did labour in 1997.

Heyman_2

dervish wrote: »

Really?

I think most people vote according to their beliefs.

Or they have grown up and absorbed some of the attitudes and beliefs of their family and vote accordingly.

No, most people vote on the 'get the !!!!!!s out and get the other !!!!!!s in' mentality. There are two main parties in this country and there have been for some time - some would say that the differences between them are now bordering on negligible.

At least I listened to what Clegg had to say about various issues and identified with that, - I think it's naive of you to think that everyone who goes to the polls votes on 'beliefs'- unless by beliefs you mean 'that David Cameron fella is a hunk, I'll vote for him' :rolleyes:

stevetodd

kittie wrote: »

I have just seen june 2009 as a possibility. I hope so, I and countless others have had enough of this shower of a labour tax and spend government

I don't think that is very likely as you can see from the current betfair odds which are:

8/1 - Up to June 2009
6/1 - July to DEc 2009
1/3 - Jan 2010 or later

stonethrower

stevetodd wrote: »

I don't think that is very likely as you can see from the current betfair odds which are:

8/1 - Up to June 2009
6/1 - July to DEc 2009
1/3 - Jan 2010 or later

That 1/3 looks tempting cannot see it earlier unless the Tories are caught in a major scandal. (that could never happen)

robin_banks

There'll be an election in 2010. 'Call me Dave' will be PM, he'll most likely win 2014 with a reduced majority, plenty of haters/doubters in his own party will challenge hid leadership, being imno being a weak leader he'l be replaced with a right-winger leading to a civil war over Europe, they hang on till 2019, when they'll lose and we'll get young Milliband's version of 'social democracy'.

Or something like that.

stevetodd

stonethrower wrote: »

That 1/3 looks tempting cannot see it earlier unless the Tories are caught in a major scandal. (that could never happen)

You could always back the 1/3, sweating it out until early July then (all things being equal) the Jan to June runner has fallen leaving probably about:

12/1 up to Dec 2009
1/12 Jan 2010 or later

If you got out in July by laying 1/11 you would have backed almost a 3/10 winner. Although I have to confess I do not know what advance notice or arrangements have to be done/declared to announce/prepare for an election?
In fact due to the bad savings rates, maybe laying the 8/1 to the end of June is safer for a larger bet

abaxas

Those markets are not complete.

No 'dictatorship' option.

Rochdale_Pioneers

Unless something happens to physically dislodge the government there will NOT be an election this year.

matthewcb

I firmly believe Brown is just going to try many different things in the hope one of them gives him enough of a temporary boost in the polls to risk an election.
It's utterly shameful how one man's relentless pursuit of power is putting us all in debt for decades to come.
Fixing the economy is not his priority - getting re-elected is.