Is the Time to Invest in Banks approaching?

Rolandtheroadie

You can read what you want and get advice from whoever you want.
The facts are, trust your own instincts, do your own research, make your own decisions. You might not always make the right move, but i'd rather make a bad decision myself and fail than have someone else fail for me.

[Deleted User]

ah yes tradetime. The old grey cells got the words wrong. I had better correct it

sabretoothtigger

tradetime wrote: »

Or "Buy the rumour, sell the news."

Thats the one and barcays release fourth quarter results on the 9th, next monday so unless you were trying to call the bottom of the market that would seem to be the timescale to use

Shares never go straight up or down so often selling doesnt mean you wont get another chance to buy at a lower price if you are lucky on the timing.

I think dealing in parts (vs all or nothing) is best as then you are never totally wrong or right and can aim to always break even at least

Decadent_Fool

Miss_R wrote: »

For people who bought barclays shares in the last week or so....Have you still held on to them? Have you sold them? How long will you hold on to them for?

I'm keeping hold of them until the results come out a week tomorrow, and offer evidence (I would imagine) of the claims made in the recent letter. I personally feel that will cause a rally in BARC, and perhaps single a measure of market confidence in banking as a whole.

Now as for how long that confidence will last...

sabretoothtigger

Another thing to note is that results are often released before open trading opens. All the big players can sell their shares from 7am and you wont get a chance till past 8am, that includes the stop loss

So if the shares did fall 50% they would open at a heavily reduced price, the price would 'gap'

Ive even seen this in the middle of the day when some big news hits, the price will jump from 120 to 100 with nothing in between and the idea of a stop loss fails, it may not engage at all so dont rely on it if you have doubts


The market expects good news Decadent, so you have to predict something positive that will surprise that expectation. Its likely the price will fall if nothing beyond whats expected happens.
The reason I guess is that some are gambling on even better news

If we had gdp growth before the end of the year I'd say thats not expected, the shares might double

Trollfever

Investors urge Lloyds to sack Andy Hornby


By Margareta Pagano, Business Editor
Sunday, 1 February 2009
Investors are calling for Lloyds Banking Group to bring forward its financial results amid growing disquiet that Andy Hornby is still drawing £60,000 a month as a consultant four months after the emergency takeover of HBOS.

A number of big investors are urging Sir Victor Blank, the chairman, and Eric Daniels, his chief executive, "to do a Barclays". They want Lloyds to give a full picture of the bank's toxic assets, rising bad debts and capital adequacy ratios. Lloyds, they claim, has done nothing to reassure them about the exposure of HBOS to the commercial lending and property market to which it was heavily exposed.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/investors-urge-lloyds-to-sack-andy-hornby-1522243.html

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Andrew64

Anyone's opinion on what this means in practice. Does it imply that Barclays' shares are really now more risky to hold than before?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4433696a-f0c6-11dd-972c-0000779fd2ac.html

Barclays’ credit rating downgraded

Moody’s on Sunday night downgraded Barclays’ credit ratings, saying it expected the UK bank to record ”significant further losses” on credit-related writedowns.

The credit rating agency downgraded Barclays’ long-term debt from Aa1 to Aa3 after reviewing the bank’s prospects in the credit crisis.

gozomark

the question to ask, as always, is "was it expected ?"

If a downgrade was expected, and surely it was on the cards, was it as much of a downgrade as expected ?

Does it imply that Barclays' shares are really now more risky to hold than before? - without knowing the answers to the above, impossible to say

the Moodys downgrade brings it in line with Fitch's downgrade last Wednesday

tradetime

Anyone's opinion on what this means in practice. Does it imply that Barclays' shares are really now more risky to hold than before?

Casual observers opinion, no it doesn't imply they are any more risky than before. It does suggest to me they are more likely to have to raise capital, which may be problematic.

Reaper

As Gozomark said the downgrading just brings it into line with Fitch, it's not unexpected and if that's the reason Barclays shares opened sharply lower this morning I'd say it was an over reaction. And indeed they seem to be recovering now. The markets are all very edgy and over reaction seems to have become the norm.