First time buyer is it the right time now?

mbga9pgf

bob79 wrote: »

This is the kind of advise that got us in this mess. If you buy now with a 10% deposit, you have a good chance of being in negative equity for the next 7 years or so. That means you'll be on Standard Variable Rate for years after that short term tracker expires. The SVRs of the big banks are low now, but even now those of e.g. smaller building societies are not. What if a Tory government does the same as their hero Thatcher did in the 80s recession and puts the interest rate up to close to 20%? You'll be f*cked.

If it aint hurting its not working...

At least we HAD an economy at the end of the mess the Labour government left maggie. What are we going to have in two years time once labour have finished with it again? Want to point out some sectors that will lead our economy back on path?

Have to disagree... the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors predict a further 10 - 15% price drop before the market bottoms out in 2010.

Like their 2007-2008 prediction went well... :rotfl::rotfl:

Why would you trust an organization that helped talk the market up to unsustainable levels back in 2001-2005?

Its not as if the RICS are crying out for prices to crash through the floor is it? Plenty of neutral parties (vincve cable for example) are now calling peak-trough falls of 40% including inflation

bob79

mbga9pgf wrote: »

If it aint hurting its not working...

At least we HAD an economy at the end of the mess the Labour government left maggie. What are we going to have in two years time once labour have finished with it again? Want to point out some sectors that will lead our economy back on path?

I didn't say that higher interest rates than the current ridiculously low ones would be a bad thing for the economy as a whole. I said that it would be a bad thing for currynchips if he (she?) follows the advise of this IFA.

brummybloke

buy or not to buy?

house may go down 20% further, but then you cant get a mortgage?

i have a mortgage offer, want my own house again after selling and renting for 6 months and have seen and offered on something i like for a price less than it was on for a few months ago as they reduced by £15k before i offered.

swings and round abouts i guess, do you take the gamble that mortgages will be as easy to get? or will they shrink and be max of x 3 again? will that be enough to buy a house you could buy now?

who knows? if they did then they would be very rich indeed.

mbga9pgf

brummybloke wrote: »

buy or not to buy?

house may go down 20% further, but then you cant get a mortgage?

i have a mortgage offer, want my own house again after selling and renting for 6 months and have seen and offered on something i like for a price less than it was on for a few months ago as they reduced by £15k before i offered.

swings and round abouts i guess, do you take the gamble that mortgages will be as easy to get? or will they shrink and be max of x 3 again? will that be enough to buy a house you could buy now?

who knows? if they did then they would be very rich indeed.

You dont understand how this works. If affordability drops further, there has to be a corresponding drop in house prices. It doesnt work how you discuss above. The reason prices are dropping so fast now is because multiples and minimum deposits have got more stringent. If they get even more stringent, house prices will drop further. Its interesting to see the tenents that people set a year ago (people will not sell at lower prices / low unemployment / low government debt / government wont let house prices crash / interest rate drops will save the market) have fell over like ninepins. Losers that reckon prices will only fall another 10% will find this tenent destroyed by around may/june time.

House price supply/demand has everything to do with number of properties, very little to do with number of properties. not enough props = people living rough, NOT necessarily higher prices. Lots of cheap, easy money with no deposit requirements = high house prices. Until a whopping big depression wipes out the economy that is.

this graph is all you need to know.



wait and see! :cool:

jenjade

wow thanks everyone for all the responses. i have found it a very interesting read. I love the house i found but i think in reality i would be better off finding something for £100,000. i have however decided to see someone to find out how much i can get a morgage for and what the repayments will be!

brummybloke

mbga9pgf wrote: »

You dont understand how this works. If affordability drops further, there has to be a corresponding drop in house prices. It doesnt work how you discuss above. The reason prices are dropping so fast now is because multiples and minimum deposits have got more stringent. If they get even more stringent, house prices will drop further. Its interesting to see the tenents that people set a year ago (people will not sell at lower prices / low unemployment / low government debt / government wont let house prices crash / interest rate drops will save the market) have fell over like ninepins. Losers that reckon prices will only fall another 10% will find this tenent destroyed by around may/june time.

House price supply/demand has everything to do with number of properties, very little to do with number of properties. not enough props = people living rough, NOT necessarily higher prices. Lots of cheap, easy money with no deposit requirements = high house prices. Until a whopping big depression wipes out the economy that is.

this graph is all you need to know.



wait and see! :cool:

wow, patronising to say the least. you dont agree so i dont understand? grow up for goodness sake.

you have a theory, and a theory is ALL it is, just like other theories.

brit1234

Prices are determined by lending criteria, pure and simple. There was never a shortage of property there was just irresponsible lending.

With 25-40% deposits being now required the forecast is big falls. The banks don't have the funds to lend at 7-10 times salary anymore, fraud is being clamped down and the housing bubble has exploded.

Prices won't stop falling till we get down to about 3 times salary. It should be about 3.5 but the way it is falling so fast there will be an overcorrection.

mbga9pgf

brummybloke wrote: »

wow, patronising to say the least. you dont agree so i dont understand? grow up for goodness sake.

you have a theory, and a theory is ALL it is, just like other theories.

A theory that has meant I have been able to predict price falls within 5% since Northern rock failed. Want to show me predictions from those that said house prices wouldnt crash? Didnt think so. Its not a theory when it becomes fact.

pinkshoes

mbga9pgf wrote: »

A theory that has meant I have been able to predict price falls within 5% since Northern rock failed. Want to show me predictions from those that said house prices wouldnt crash? Didnt think so. Its not a theory when it becomes fact.

Well I'm guessing you must be a self made millionnaire with squillions in the bank, if you have time to make a prediction for every house on every street in the whole of the UK... :rolleyes: As many have said before, you cannot generalise the housing market to one forumula.

If you've been able to predict it within 5%, then how come some areas have dropped 40%, and some are still rising?

You have an opinion, that's fine, but just because you don't agree with someone else doesn't mean you should patronise them and take the p*ss, as others are equally entitled to their opinion, and are perhaps looking at it from a different perspective.

mbga9pgf

pinkshoes wrote: »

Well I'm guessing you must be a self made millionnaire with squillions in the bank, if you have time to make a prediction for every house on every street in the whole of the UK... :rolleyes: As many have said before, you cannot generalise the housing market to one forumula.

If you've been able to predict it within 5%, then how come some areas have dropped 40%, and some are still rising?

You have an opinion, that's fine, but just because you don't agree with someone else doesn't mean you should patronise them and take the p*ss, as others are equally entitled to their opinion, and are perhaps looking at it from a different perspective.

A perspective that has been well and truly blown out of the water I am sorry. Prices 20% down. When are you all going to take your rose tinted glasses off and realize this is a crash of epic proportions? You all sound like the Iraqi information minister.

And do you want to tell me how I was supposed to make bazillions on falling asset prices? You cant (well you can, but its called saving and waiting for the crash to really start in earnest).

I have had this discussion before. Everyone can talk location, type of prop etc, but the simple fact remains that all areas are falling now, some are lagging but they will catch up. There is not one sector of our economy that hasnt been affected by this crisis, not one. Pretending you are a special case and that it 'wont happen to me' will only prolong the shock once it dawns upon you that in fact, you are not immune, even if you want to be. Show me areas that are rising using a non-laggy index.