Predictions of 50% falls now hitting mainstream in the Independent

StevieJ

dopester wrote: »

I hope you'll be as committed and vigorous in your defence of my projections for deflation and pay-cuts !!!!!! as it plays out.

You might not like the pay-cut projections - I know it really gets to you - but I have highlighted that danger long in advance so people can take preparatory steps with adjusting and saving, to limit surprise and suffering.

What is that old quote?

I don't agree with you Dopester but I will defend to the death your right to say it

WTF?_2

dopester wrote: »

I hope you'll be as committed and vigorous in your defence of my projections for deflation and pay-cuts !!!!!! as it plays out.

You might not like the pay-cut projections - I know it really gets to you - but I have highlighted that danger long in advance so people can take preparatory steps with adjusting and saving, to limit surprise and suffering.

What on earth makes you say that your projections of pay cuts "really gets to (me)"? It's just that don't think it will play out like that.

Actual pay cuts are unlikely on a wide scale - the lowering of average wages will take effect through new jobs being advertised at lower rates of pay and pay rises being supressed - with many people losing their jobs and thus getting new ones at the lower levels. Or maybe not even getting a new job at all.

As for adjusting and saving, I'd totally agree that this is a good idea in any case under the current conditions. Of course people need to cut costs and save.


Deflation - sure, some in the short term. Followed very quickly by strong inflation as the government enacts an insane sequence of damanging (in the long term) measures due to the fact that they really can't afford deflation.

WTF?_2

StevieJ wrote: »

So you know what he was predicting before he joined MSE? mmm interesting.

I'm not claiming to know anything except that your implication that he was making the claim of huge falls even as prices rose a lot further is obvious, and sadly typical for you, bunkum.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Perhaps it is of more interest to look at the following years right now, rather than the preceding

!!!!!!, how do you think the transition from disinflation to highinflation will play out, and when (prefer not to use defl or hyper myself)? For what we are talking about is a move from 'cash is king' to 'spend asap'. I can see that large inflation must be preceded by deflation in order to diminish existing stock, but ..other than that?

(i am aware of course of the sterling decline)

mower5

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Perhaps it is of more interest to look at the following years right now, rather than the preceding

!!!!!!, how do you think the transition from disinflation to highinflation will play out, and when (prefer not to use defl or hyper myself)? For what we are talking about is a move from 'cash is king' to 'spend asap'. I can see that large inflation must be preceded by deflation in order to diminish existing stock, but ..other than that?

(i am aware of course of the sterling decline)

Thanks ash n oak
This is the question thats been bugging me! How will anyone know when to get the largest possible mortgage/debts that can be melted away by highinflation?

StevieJ

!!!!!!? wrote: »

I'm not claiming to know anything except that your implication that he was making the claim of huge falls even as prices rose a lot further is obvious, and sadly typical for you, bunkum.

You really do talk some b******* No implication just repeating what he said.

leveller2911

I can only really give my opinion from the last recession.

In my area, around 1989 flats were selling for around £40k-£50k....

In 1992 those same flats were selling for around £15k ......

Im not qualified to compare the 2 recessions but in the late 80,s there was nothing like the personal debt there is now....

I will leave it to those on here more qualified to compare.......

The above prices are factual for my area....

After all, life is a circle.......

WTF?_2

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Perhaps it is of more interest to look at the following years right now, rather than the preceding

!!!!!!, how do you think the transition from disinflation to highinflation will play out, and when (prefer not to use defl or hyper myself)? For what we are talking about is a move from 'cash is king' to 'spend asap'. I can see that large inflation must be preceded by deflation in order to diminish existing stock, but ..other than that?

(i am aware of course of the sterling decline)

They'll keep throwing cash at the wall until some of it sticks.

We'll see oil prices and other hard asset prices start a sustained rise, acompanied by stock market rises. This will be hailed as the policies 'working' and rates will be kept low and the printing presses spinning (this government isn't going to give up 'free money' easily once they have it) so as not to jeopardise the chances of recovery or some such equal BS.

There's an awful lot of money out there in safe havens - once it becomes obvious that inflation is under way, that will come out to play triggering very rapid inflation. By the time they get around to raising interest rates - which they may not even do sufficiently based on the evidence of recent years - it will be way too late.

chucky

!!!!!!? wrote: »

In fact, as far as I can see he started predicting 50% falls from peak after the market had peaked, meaning that your insinuation that he'd been making the claim for so long that prices had actually gone up since he made it is completely spurious.

You'll find that Brit joined MSE in December 2007. You joined in August 2007.

The peak was in August 2007 - I can only imagine that it was on another forum or your personal emails that Brit was predicting these 50% drops. So I think you're talking for the sake of talking.

!!!!!!? wrote: »

who only seem to come to MSE to take a personal pop at other posters. Posters whose advice and analysis so far has been solid and would have saved anyone listening to them quite a bit of money.

I salute you

chucky

StevieJ wrote: »

So you know what he was predicting before he joined MSE? mmm interesting.

it must have been that crystal ball