Predictions of 50% falls now hitting mainstream in the Independent

pickledpink

RDB wrote: »

Me too, I have my eye on an area where in the last few years prices shot up to ridiculous 300K average, this is not real money in my view.

Realistic prices are half that and we will get there, sooner than most think.

Which area is that? And when were they going for £125k?:rolleyes:

chucky

pickledpink wrote: »

Which area is that? And when were they going for £125k?:rolleyes:

1982?

welcome back - how was Christmas and New Year chez Pickled?

novazombie

I want to buy a house in N,London at the bottom but I dont agree that we will be there this yr 09.

It takes time, I agree with all those in the 50% club maybe even the 70% club, but I think it will take longer than they say.

Sure we will see huge drops this yr and many people will start buying if they have big enough deposite to get mortgage. But even if they got very low prices they may still be looking at neg equ in a few years.

Yoshua

70% club?

Come on really who thinks HP will drop 70%?

50% is extreme but I think could be eventually, but not soon.

pickledpink

chucky wrote: »

1982?

welcome back - how was Christmas and New Year chez Pickled?

I had a fab Christmas and New Year thank you, Chucky. I trust you did too?:j

chucky

pickledpink wrote: »

I had a fab Christmas and New Year thank you, Chucky. I trust you did too?:j

it wasn't bad - good to see that it was good for you.

brit1234

Yoshua wrote: »

70% club?

Come on really who thinks HP will drop 70%?

50% is extreme but I think could be eventually, but not soon.

50% Isn't extreme at all. Many prices are down around 50% at auctions now. Now if that is the drop in prices now what do you think it will be as the recessession gets worse as widely predicted.

Remember prices went up with sustainable supporting the price rise, it was pure speculation and bubble economics

50% falls represent a return to normal lending (3.5 x salary). Due to everyone now saving for a deposit late and a huge oversupply in new build flats there will be an overcorrection. So 60-70% falls in flat values is likely.

Remember so of us predicted these falls years ago and the so called vested experts keep changing their predictions by the month as they under estimate the falls and they get closer to our views.

carolt

When the house price website (can't remember offhand which one it is) recently came up with pre-2000 figures, I discovered that the house I rent was bought by my landlord for 88K in 1998 - good for me, as by peak, it would have sold for 325K, so no likelihood of my landlord having much of a problem meeting the mortgage.

What it does show is that a house that increased by 350% ish in 9 years has a loooong way to fall.

It'd probably struggle to sell for 250K now (by comparison with '04 prices, where we are now, a similarish one in the next road sold for 240K) - that's a good drop, but even allowing for wage inflation over that period, it ought to fall to around around half of its peak price - or more.

chucky

brit1234 wrote: »

50% Isn't extreme at all. Many prices are down around 50% at auctions now. Now if that is the drop in prices now what do you think it will be as the recessession gets worse as widely predicted.

Remember prices went up with sustainable supporting the price rise, it was pure speculation and bubble economics

50% falls represent a return to normal lending (3.5 x salary). Due to everyone now saving for a deposit late and a huge oversupply in new build flats there will be an overcorrection. So 60-70% falls in flat values is likely.

Remember so of us predicted these falls years ago and the so called vested experts keep changing their predictions by the month as they under estimate the falls and they get closer to our views.

oh Brit - you really have to wake up from your dream world. seriously..

here's a snap-shot of the annual price drops of the local areas to you from LR.

Hillingdon -4.70%
Hounslow -7.10%
Kingston upon Thames -7.90%
Richmond upon Thames -11.40%

nothing like the 60-70% drops that you're pretending to believe will happen.
it would take 6-7 years of price drops (at least, if not 20 years) for your dreams to come true - in that time it wouldn't be your savings or property prices but we'd be living in a Mad Max society if they ever dropped that far.

i imagine it must be a very bad new build that you want to buy because these are the only ones that may even get to 60-70%.

carolt

oh chucky - you really have to wake up from your dream world. seriously..

You well know that those LR figures (a) are months out of date by the time they arrive, in terms of reflecting current prices and (b) don't include repossessions/auctions/new builds, ie all the areas showing the big drops. So are hardly representative.

Nice try.