Predictions of 50% falls now hitting mainstream in the Independent

chucky

carolt wrote: »

oh chucky - you really have to wake up from your dream world. seriously..

You well know that those LR figures (a) are months out of date by the time they arrive, in terms of reflecting current prices and (b) don't include repossessions/auctions/new builds, ie all the areas showing the big drops. So are hardly representative.

Nice try.

oh Carol - you really need to stop wearing those blinkers.

i'm no way in denial about price drops.

but let's go by your logic

carolt wrote: »

(a) are months out of date by the time they arrive, in terms of reflecting current prices and

let's factor in the two months that are missing from these numbers/drops

Hillingdon -4.70% + -0.78% = -5.48% Annual Drop
Hounslow -7.10% + -1.18% = -8.28% Annual Drop
Kingston upon Thames -7.90% + -1.32% = -9.22% Annual Drop
Richmond upon Thames -11.40% + -1.90% = -13.30% Annual Drop

the middle column is the existing annual price drop divided by 12 months, so factoring/averaging in your supposed time lag. I've then added it to the existing initial amount.
sorry, still not 60-70% price drops and even for the worst of the areas it would take 4 and half years to get to Brits nonsense figures.

carolt wrote: »

(b) don't include repossessions/auctions/new builds, ie all the areas showing the big drops. So are hardly representative.

why would you be interested in new builds?
auctions are still not showing massive drops in general - however there are a few exceptions. currently there are not enough out there to impact these figures.
repos again are not enough in volume to have any impact on these house numbers.

once the Nationwide and Halifax start to have a larger difference between them then I'll accept that repos and auctions are important. currently they are not and have a reasonable correlation betwen them.

i'm being realistic and don't go by your doom and gloom.
let's not let facts get in the way of all of this

StevieJ

brit1234 wrote: »

50% Isn't extreme at all. Many prices are down around 50% at auctions now. Now if that is the drop in prices now what do you think it will be as the recessession gets worse as widely predicted.

Remember prices went up with sustainable supporting the price rise, it was pure speculation and bubble economics

50% falls represent a return to normal lending (3.5 x salary). Due to everyone now saving for a deposit late and a huge oversupply in new build flats there will be an overcorrection. So 60-70% falls in flat values is likely.

Remember so of us predicted these falls years ago and the so called vested experts keep changing their predictions by the month as they under estimate the falls and they get closer to our views.

Remember so of us predicted these falls years ago

You mean they have gone up 100% since you started to predict they would go down 50% :rotfl:

chucky

StevieJ wrote: »

Remember so of us predicted these falls years ago

You mean they have gone up 100% since you started to predict they would go down 50% :rotfl:

yes - he's been a member since Dec 2007.
in his dream world that is years ago :rotfl:

WTF?_2

StevieJ wrote: »

Remember so of us predicted these falls years ago

You mean they have gone up 100% since you started to predict they would go down 50% :rotfl:

Really ... When did Brit1234 first predict that they would go down by 50%?

You really should stop making stuff up - but I suppose it wouldn't be much fun sticking to the facts when you can let off a bit of steam by attributing made up things to posters and then making a personal jibe.

StevieJ

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Really ... When did Brit1234 first predict that they would go down by 50%?

You really should stop making stuff up - but I suppose it wouldn't be much fun sticking to the facts when you can let off a bit of steam by attributing made up things to posters and then making a personal jibe.

Remember so of us predicted these falls years ago.

Making what up? I don't know when he made that prediction, what does years ago mean (his words not mine) ? last month?

dopester

StevieJ wrote: »

Making what up? I don't know when he made that prediction, what does years ago mean (his words not mine) ? last month?

Halifax are saying we are back to 2004 levels, which is years ago, and prices haven't stopped falling yet Stevie.

I wanted to buy in 2004 (and prior to that) but couldn't justify the prices being asked.

Home owners have seen £3,000 a month knocked off the value of their properties in the past year as average house prices fell to August 2004 levels.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/4076613/House-prices-fall-by-record-3000-a-month-and-return-to-2004-levels-finds-Halifax.html

WTF?_2

StevieJ wrote: »

Remember so of us predicted these falls years ago.

Making what up? I don't know when he made that prediction, what does years ago mean (his words not mine) ? last month?

'Years ago' is a figure of speech as you well know, like 'for ages'.

What you are attempting to do to is have a go at him by claiming he started claiming 50% falls so long ago that prices went up massively since.

In fact, as far as I can see he started predicting 50% falls from peak after the market had peaked, meaning that your insinuation that he'd been making the claim for so long that prices had actually gone up since he made it is completely spurious.

There does seem to be a small clique of posters here - including you of late - who only seem to come to MSE to take a personal pop at other posters. Posters whose advice and analysis so far has been solid and would have saved anyone listening to them quite a bit of money.

StevieJ

!!!!!!? wrote: »

'Years ago' is a figure of speech as you well know, like 'for ages'.

What you are attempting to do to is have a go at him by claiming he started claiming 50% falls so long ago that prices went up massively since.

In fact, as far as I can see he started predicting 50% falls from peak after the market had peaked, meaning that your insinuation that he'd been making the claim for so long that prices had actually gone up since he made it is completely spurious.

There does seem to be a small clique of posters here - including you of late - who only seem to come to MSE to take a personal pop at other posters. Posters whose advice and analysis so far has been solid and would have saved anyone listening to them quite a bit of money.

So you know what he was predicting before he joined MSE? mmm interesting.

the_ash_and_the_oak

I think the falls began to be predicted in 2001. But I think the predictions from that time were identifying that a bubble would form because of Greenspans response to dotcom. The inference that they would fall at a future point didn't preclude rises in the meantime - in fact surely this was inevitable. Identifying a bubble means the falls are inevitable but the rises must come first. After that it is a matter of timing

I personally believe they will return to 2001 prices. I also believe it will take a long time to get there.

dopester

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Posters whose advice and analysis so far has been solid and would have saved anyone listening to them quite a bit of money.

I hope you'll be as committed and vigorous in your defence of my projections for deflation and pay-cuts !!!!!! as it plays out.

You might not like the pay-cut projections - I know it really gets to you - but I have highlighted that danger long in advance so people can take preparatory steps with adjusting and saving, to limit surprise and suffering.