Anybody see where recovery is going to come from?

1echidna

Must admit I was pessimistic in the 80s 90s but the UK bounced back. It appears that it was all built on an unsustainable credit bubble. It was good for many whilst it lasted but where to now? Easy to find people to blame but how to fix it?

cocktail

quantitative easing (printing money) and hence devaluing the pound seems to be the way.

auximinies

cocktail wrote: »

quantitative easing (printing money) and hence devaluing the pound seems to be the way.

We haven't printed any money yet - the additional spending is coming from the sale of government bonds.

As for the pound devaluing - good thing too. A year ago there was howling and knashing of teeth from exporters (and we were the third biggest exporting nation including manufactured goods and financial services) - the pound at $2.00 was at record levels. Now its back towards where it had been the previous decade, and for all the political posturing its a long way above the virtual dollar parity seen under Nigel Lawson.

As for vs the Euro that currency is finally taking off against us, the dollar, the yen, everyone. Euro Dollar and Yen are the three big currencies traded by everyone. The pound isn't that important any more and will fluctuate when one or the other gets stronger. We had a few years on tp, now its the Euro's turn. Thats how money markets operate and regardless of what we do currencies still rise and fall.

cocktail

auximinies wrote: »

We haven't printed any money yet - the additional spending is coming from the sale of government bonds.

with no fundamentals behind the economy govt. bond sales slacken.
the pound and indeed the uk isnt what it used to be.the day this is realised by the govt. and the masses would be the day things will start to change.

ad9898_3

I've been doing some cheery reading over the Christmas period on the collapse of complex civilisations. I think the answer is, we may well recover, but it will only be temporary.

Our way of life is unsustainable in every way, infinite growth in a finite world is impossible. The next 50 years will make the last 50 look like a picnic.

nickmason

ad9898 wrote: »

I've been doing some cheery reading of the Christmas period on the collapse of complex civilisations. I think the answer is, we may well recover, but it will only be temporary. .

Oh, this is very interesting - I have become increasingly convinced that there is a complexity problem looming - can you recommend some good reading?

ukmike

including manufactured goods

Such as?We manufacture very little in the world-wide scheme.

j-baby-scotland

Bit late for reading...
Time taken to publish makes them out of date in this climate.
Historical reading provides little relevance.
Welcome to the new world.

nickmason

j-baby-scotland wrote: »

Bit late for reading...
Time taken to publish makes them out of date in this climate.
Historical reading provides little relevance.
Welcome to the new world.

Oh well, might as well quit then

I find the challenge is finding the right stuff - almost everything that happens has been predicted by someone at some point!

j-baby-scotland

nickmason wrote: »

Oh well, might as well quit then

I find the challenge is finding the right stuff - almost everything that happens has been predicted by someone at some point!

Perhaps true...
but such selectiveness amongst the drivel takes years to cultivate.

ad9898_3

nickmason wrote: »

Oh, this is very interesting - I have become increasingly convinced that there is a complexity problem looming - can you recommend some good reading?

Here are a couple, I've read both, don't bother bringing the subject up in conversation around the dinner table at Christmas though, you'll get more 'head in the sand' quips than if you start talking about falling house prices:D.

The Collapse Of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter
and
The Party Is Over, Oil, War And The Collapse of Industrial Societies by Richard Heinberg

The last one in particular that I have just finished, is chilling. You start to look all around you to see if any of our modern life is sustainable without the fast depleting resources, sadly there is virtually nothing.