Sellers start to become more realistic

skap7309

mitchaa wrote: »

You know last time round, did we have such big numbers of professionals still living at home with parents? You know the types, doctors, teachers, policemen etc well into their late 20's still living at home with parents. On the same numbers scale as we do now?

What about peoples attitudes to money, greed and investment? Have they perhaps changed at all since last time round? Did we have property investment, development and the whole BTL system on this scale last time round? How many people in the last 5-7yrs have witnessed massive growth and fortune, you know the types, bought for £50k, sold for £500k and are just going to ignore that fact this time round, along with everyone else who ''missed the boat''

You dont believe there are now great masses of people just waiting to buy? As soon as that happens, its then a sellers market

That is why it's different this time round, attitudes to housing and investments have changed

IMO anyway of course, i'll set the reminder for 17yrs time and come and check on this thread to see who is correct:rotfl:

Me, i'll be living in my castle on my own private island somewhere;)

For once mitchaa i really do agree with you. I should know as i am one of those mid/late 20's on a good wage, large deposit and still living at home.

The crucial point missing however is that the whole bubble was built on silly levels of credit and due to the banks being seriously damaged from irresponsible lending it will be many years before that, if ever, is seen again.

wolfman

mitchaa wrote: »

You know last time round, did we have such big numbers of professionals still living at home with parents? You know the types, doctors, teachers, policemen etc well into their late 20's still living at home with parents. On the same numbers scale as we do now?

What about peoples attitudes to money, greed and investment? Have they perhaps changed at all since last time round? Did we have property investment, development and the whole BTL system on this scale last time round? How many people in the last 5-7yrs have witnessed massive growth and fortune, you know the types, bought for £50k, sold for £500k and are just going to ignore that fact this time round, along with everyone else who ''missed the boat''

You dont believe there are now great masses of people just waiting to buy? As soon as that happens, its then a sellers market

That is why it's different this time round, attitudes to housing and investments have changed

Attitudes may have changed, but so have priorities with the recession.

How long and deep will it be, and when and how badly will the tax hit be when the government moves to cover all the debt they've created.

I'm still saving, but i'm very wary of the recession, and certainly won't be buying until I feel safe to do so. And especially while houses are still un-affordable.

Property won't instantly become the profitable investment it once was. It certainly won't be reaching 2007 levels for a long time to come.

Once houses do become cheaper, then so will rent, as people will be more inclined to buy rather than rent. So the BTL market won't be around for a while, or at least not in the same form that we saw before.

And given that banks aren't lending, the government has a huge debt hole to fill, their is a recession on, and people aren't spending, house prices will continue to fall for quite some time to come. And when it stops, it'll be a buyers (home owner) market.

Really2

skap7309 wrote: »

Really, as much as i appreciate your post, as mentioned earlier all peaks to troughs follow nearly identical lines. The killer difference is they get higher and higher and then longer and longer to reach the bottom. I totally agree future events are the deciding factor but history will repeat itself and i cannot see why on earth it would be different this time. Rates have not been this low for nearly 60 years, the market is on life support and all the factors actually point to a worse crash than the 90's.

I will stick by my prediction now that we will not see 2007 levels for around 15 years after all factors taken into consideration. If people want to stay in their homes for that long as they will not face up to reality and reduce prices then thats fine....:rolleyes:

Dont worry I am not trying to convert you.;)

But if you look at the graph this bubble may look huge. But the peak is almost identicaly the same as the last 32% just achived in less time.

I would strugle to come at a back to 07 level just looking at those 2.5 cycles if there were more dates, back say 200 years it may be easier but at the moment I woud use the shortest to the longest 6-12 years. So 4.5 to 10.5 years from now.
But dont forget that's inflation adjusted.;)

Kez100

Mitch - you are right. However last time a FTB who wanted to get onto the ladder could with a 5 percent deposit at any time during the downward cycle. We did t twice. Once in 1991 and again in 1994.

At no time was there a restriction in money for those who wanted to borrow ( apart from normal multiple rules etc)

That's why it will be difficult to call it this time.

I think banks will lend with lower deposits when prices have fallen enough - when will they think they are low enough?

Or will banks not lend until they have paid back the government? Hoarding cash to do this first?

It may be that the crisis has blown normal logic out ofthe window. It certainly has done so interns of government policy which has been amazingly panicy ( I assume that is for good reason)

Cleaver

brit1234 wrote: »

Yes we are. Till people can buy any property on 3.5 times a good wage then pricesare way over valued.

Am I the only person that thinks this method of 'testing' whether people can afford a house is outdated and needs replacing with a more relevant yardstick?