Sellers start to become more realistic

IveSeenTheLight

Smitty wrote: »

Many different approaches to answer this, here is one. If you remove the massive peak of HPI from about 2002 fuelled by people buying property to make money, and extrapolate the graph, you get about £135k (average house price by NW's figures) I would consider this reasonable.
NB, this isn't my estimate of how far prices will fall !

This graph?



The nationwide graph shows the long term average for house prices should be just under £150k

Agreed there is normally an overshoot, but were not that far away from the long term average

Smitty

that'll be the one...

Kez100

The overshoot was pretty dire last time. I can't see any reason it should be less so this time. I'm still in -30-40% camp.

brit1234

Yes we are. Till people can buy any property on 3.5 times a good wage then pricesare way over valued.

Smitty

Kez100 wrote: »

The overshoot was pretty dire last time. I can't see any reason it should be less so this time. I'm still in -30-40% camp.

yes, unless the government come up with something huge (and therefore ridiculous) I am sharing the same campsite

moanymoany

In the crash of the 90's, it was ages before house prices started to come down - but when they did they just kept on going!

Cat695

I wish someone would tell the sellers down here in the southwest.....some have only dropped their price by 500quid!!!

yet according to the graph !!!!!! on here and in the news the southwest has some of the largest drops.

Really2

brit1234 wrote: »

Yes we are. Till people can buy any property on 3.5 times a good wage then pricesare way over valued.

Depends what you mean a "property" is and "3.5x good wage"?

3.5X average wage would get you a flat where I live.

I class £60Kish as a good wage which would get you a 3 bed semi in a good area or a 4 bed detached in a not so good area (getting nearer to good are prices though)

When was the last time propert was 3.5X average wage?
Will population (competition) stop it happening?

lostinrates

Cat695 wrote: »

I wish someone would tell the sellers down here in the southwest.....some have only dropped their price by 500quid!!!

yet according to the graph !!!!!! on here and in the news the southwest has some of the largest drops.

I've noticed some pretty big drops in Somerset.

(I don't do the bee, so just nosiness, I bet if I'd done the bee thing I'd 'bee' able to show some good SW examples). I've also noticed some drops in N.dorset.

dopester

Really2 wrote: »

When was the last time propert was 3.5X average wage?
Will population (competition) stop it happening?

Has that population got enough money of their own - or access to mortgage credit to support prices at anything above x3.5?

Well look at the position in the US. Unemployment figures up half-a-million today. Don't think they'll be getting big real-estate loans or supporting house prices from their own savings. Same in the UK with fast rising unemployment and negative pressures on pay levels.

The population only has so much money of its own - and house prices are totally out of whack given so much was lent by institutions.. beyond savings levels, but from the wholesale markets.