Sellers start to become more realistic

edgex

zzzLazyDaisy wrote: »

Or they will lend to two income couples

There are a lot of single people.
Even if it was a couple, if they have both recently graduated, say within 3 years or so, they will still be paying off the various loans, so their take home income would still need adjusting.

neverdespairgirl

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

The term reasonable price house has been debated here many a time.
What's your view on the reasonable price and type of property for a FTBer?

Depends, surely? It's the age, career stage, family circumstances that matter, rather than just whether you are a FTB or second-time buyer.

For example, OH and I are 30 and 31, with a child, so although we will be FTB in the future, we won't be buying a one bed flat.

Airwolf1

shirlgirl2004 wrote: »

How can you do a driveby valuation? You presumably can't see how big the garden is; if there's a conservatory; indeed just how far back the house goes! There's a big difference between my 4 bed detached and a neighbour's but I don't think you could tell from the front. Is that why you value lower? Not having a go just curious :think:

We're basically given brief information about the property, how many bedrooms, kitchens, wcs, bathrooms, "other" rooms, garages, reception rooms, attic rooms and outbuildings. The occupier gives a valuation of their property on the same form.

We go out, take a photo, take construction details and locality etc. We also look for sales evidence in the area, including sold and for sale. If we de-value by more than 10% we have to give comparables.

skap7309

Really2 wrote: »

But This bubble in shape looks more like the 1980 one (6 years above average price which then turned into 6 years below)
The 90s one was around and over average for ages.(and like wise eent under for ages)
The only thing you can draw from the past is that it will go below average cost. But for how long or by how much is not decided on this form it is decided by future events.

I think sellers need to decided what is best for their own personal needs not to just look at the past as a guide to the future. If I was forced I would try to sell ASAP 10% below what is currently selling most probably.
If I just fancied selling or moving I would not bother now, there is no point competing with forced sellers if you don't have to.

Really, as much as i appreciate your post, as mentioned earlier all peaks to troughs follow nearly identical lines. The killer difference is they get higher and higher and then longer and longer to reach the bottom. I totally agree future events are the deciding factor but history will repeat itself and i cannot see why on earth it would be different this time. Rates have not been this low for nearly 60 years, the market is on life support and all the factors actually point to a worse crash than the 90's.

I will stick by my prediction now that we will not see 2007 levels for around 15 years after all factors taken into consideration. If people want to stay in their homes for that long as they will not face up to reality and reduce prices then thats fine....:rolleyes:

monkeymaster

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

This graph?



The nationwide graph shows the long term average for house prices should be just under £150k

Agreed there is normally an overshoot, but were not that far away from the long term average

That is of course if you believe that trend line at 2.9%pa. It looks comical to me based on that graph and it was of course revised upwards not too long ago.

mitchaa

skap7309 wrote: »

If this crash follows the same trend (and there is no reason whatsoever to question why it will not) we are in for one hell of a long while before we see 2007 peaks again. It took 13 years last time round to get to previous peak level. 2025+ is now a huge reality.

Cornflakes just went down the wrong hole.

Seriously, some of you are taking this way too far now.

mitchaa

skap7309 wrote: »

If this crash follows the same trend (and there is no reason whatsoever to question why it will not)

You know last time round, did we have such big numbers of professionals still living at home with parents? You know the types, doctors, teachers, policemen etc well into their late 20's still living at home with parents. On the same numbers scale as we do now?

What about peoples attitudes to money, greed and investment? Have they perhaps changed at all since last time round? Did we have property investment, development and the whole BTL system on this scale last time round? How many people in the last 5-7yrs have witnessed massive growth and fortune, you know the types, bought for £50k, sold for £500k and are just going to ignore that fact this time round, along with everyone else who ''missed the boat''

You dont believe there are now great masses of people just waiting to buy? As soon as that happens, its then a sellers market

That is why it's different this time round, attitudes to housing and investments have changed

IMO anyway of course, i'll set the reminder for 17yrs time and come and check on this thread to see who is correct:rotfl:

Me, i'll be living in my castle on my own private island somewhere;)

SingleSue

Really2 wrote: »

Depends what you mean a "property" is and "3.5x good wage"?

3.5X average wage would get you a flat where I live.

I class £60Kish as a good wage which would get you a 3 bed semi in a good area or a 4 bed detached in a not so good area (getting nearer to good are prices though)

When was the last time propert was 3.5X average wage?
Will population (competition) stop it happening?

60k would be a blooming amazing salary down here! A 3 bed semi in a decent to good area is approx 180K - 250k (in a great area we are talking 300k+) whilst a 4 bedroom in a not so good would be around the same but our average salary is around 16-18k.

SingleSue

mitchaa wrote: »

Cornflakes just went down the wrong hole.

Seriously, some of you are taking this way too far now.

I don't know what is going to happen this time...crystal ball not working but in the last recession, if someone had said to me in 1990 that our house would not get back to the price we paid, for over 10 years, I would have thought them completely mad and that was when the property had already lost half of it's value from new (it was 3 years old when we bought and had already had 2 owners, first lost 20k as did the second one...we were in the hole for nearly 30k including fees)

In fact it was still selling for less than it went after our repo 6 years after we were reposessed and only gained it's original (2 people before us) sale price in 2003/4, a huge 15 years later.

skap7309

SingleSue wrote: »

I don't know what is going to happen this time...crystal ball not working but in the last recession, if someone had said to me in 1990 that our house would not get back to the price we paid, for over 10 years, I would have thought them completely mad and that was when the property had already lost half of it's value from new (it was 3 years old when we bought and had already had 2 owners, first lost 20k as did the second one...we were in the hole for nearly 30k including fees)

In fact it was still selling for less than it went after our repo 6 years after we were reposessed and only gained it's original (2 people before us) sale price in 2003/4, a huge 15 years later.

Points highlighted in bold, Sue, this is exactly the point i am trying to say but some people still stick their fingers in their ears and sing ''la, la, la''......:rolleyes: