BBC - Mortgage approvals still falling

Cannon_Fodder

That's just to bribe me into posting back here...(but thanks anyway!)

Oh, damn it, I've done it again!!

Confound this wily woman with her subtly clever ploy.

Conrad

Well I have pulled back from buying an investment, far too much bad news out there and prices going one way at the moment.

Lets wait for 15% yields, like we had back in 1994.

Cannon_Fodder

ad9898 wrote: »

I wonder when the penny will drop ?

It does, at the same rate as the pound...

mitchaa

NDG...

Any particular reason as to why you missed out probably the most important and relative point of that article??

Is it perhaps to paint a picture of doom and gloom just like the media are doing

For the past four months they have hovered between 32,000 and 33,000 each month, suggesting that lending for house purchase may have reached its bottom.

mitchaa

For the past four months they have hovered between 32,000 and 33,000 each month, suggesting that lending for house purchase may have reached its bottom.

Probably the most relative and interesting point of that article

Cannon_Fodder

"Approvals have slumped by 74% in the past year"

In a market that is already three-quarters of what it once was, today losing 3% of what's left is not a recovery. In anybody's language.

What's the average of the last four months, in % house price change? That will be the likely result, while levels remain as they are...



Maybe this is of more relevance?

"Mortgage lending declines in third quarter: CML Scotland

The downturn in mortgage lending continued in the third quarter with 15,100 house purchase loans granted in Scotland, an 18% decline from the previous quarter, according to new data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders Scotland."

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2020


Any other market that shrunk by 18% during a quarter, would be considered in catastrophic downturn - French farmers would be rioting, Icelandic fishermen would be blockading, car-making robots would be sleeping on the job...


If you choose to view it as a storm in a teacup, that's your perogative.

pickles110564

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

"Approvals have slumped by 74% in the past year"

In a market that is already three-quarters of what it once was, today losing 3% of what's left is not a recovery. In anybody's language.

What's the average of the last four months, in % house price change? That will be the likely result, while levels remain as they are...



Maybe this is of more relevance?

"Mortgage lending declines in third quarter: CML Scotland

The downturn in mortgage lending continued in the third quarter with 15,100 house purchase loans granted in Scotland, an 18% decline from the previous quarter, according to new data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders Scotland."

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2020


Any other market that shrunk by 18% during a quarter, would be considered in catastrophic downturn - French farmers would be rioting, Icelandic fishermen would be blockading, car-making robots would be sleeping on the job...


If you choose to view it as a storm in a teacup, that's your perogative.

so what are you saying? that we are fooked and the end is nigh?

Kez100

The thing is ......

40% are on variable and tracker mortgages. Why would they even think of remortgaging? So, that is 40% of the market gone (in terms of applications)

Of the final 60% a good percentage must be greater than 75% LTV. We all know it is difficult for them to remortgage as well and most are going onto SVR.

Those that simply move product with present lender - are they included?

Add into that the fact no one ought to be buying unless in a pretty weird position I don't see any news in this.

neverdespairgirl

Can I give an example?

Suppose I stay the same size and weight by eating 2,000 calories a day.

Next month I eat 2,500 calories a day. The third month, 3,000. The fourth, fifth, and sixth months, 3,500 calories a day.

The top has been reached. But I will continue to gain weight until I am so large that I need 3,500 calories a day just to maintain that weight.

mewbie_2

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

Can I give an example?

Suppose I stay the same size and weight by eating 2,000 calories a day.

Next month I eat 2,500 calories a day. The third month, 3,000. The fourth, fifth, and sixth months, 3,500 calories a day.

The top has been reached. But I will continue to gain weight until I am so large that I need 3,500 calories a day just to maintain that weight.

Then you can present Location, Location, Location.