Crash just started. 40% by mid 2009.

stevetodd

zcacmxi wrote: »

On the Evening Standard billboards right now., and also front page of thisislondon:

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23592736-details/House+prices+drop+100%2C000+in+two+weeks/article.do

If you really belive house prices will fall by 25% in 6 months why don't you have an extra large bet on it then? The spread betting market is indicating a fall of about 16% (between 3rd quarter 08 and 2nd quarter 09). Here's the link:

http://www.spreadfair.com/index.jsp?oid=20180

You obviously believe that all these people who are putting their money where their mouth is have got it wrong (by a huge margin), get stuck in and show them how wrong they are!

Really2

stevetodd wrote: »

If you really belive house prices will fall by 25% in 6 months why don't you have an extra large bet on it then? The spread betting market is indicating a fall of about 16% (between 3rd quarter 08 and 2nd quarter 09). Here's the link:

http://www.spreadfair.com/index.jsp?oid=20180

You obviously believe that all these people who are putting their money where their mouth is have got it wrong (by a huge margin), get stuck in and show them how wrong they are!

He/She could put that 40% down they have saved.;)

zcacmxi

stevetodd wrote: »

If you really belive house prices will fall by 25% in 6 months why don't you have an extra large bet on it then? The spread betting market is indicating a fall of about 16% (between 3rd quarter 08 and 2nd quarter 09). Here's the link:

http://www.spreadfair.com/index.jsp?oid=20180

You obviously believe that all these people who are putting their money where their mouth is have got it wrong (by a huge margin), get stuck in and show them how wrong they are!

Many, from major financial institutions to buy-to-let investors have put their money in over the past few years. They are well and truly stuck in!

Rather than playing games gambling on "average national house prices", I prefer to follow the market closely in a smaller local area, and buy the real thing!

Conrad

zcacmxi wrote: »

Property Investment trust companies are selling at up to an 80% discount of Net Asset Value! So a company with 74p worth of property per share, is selling at 15p per share!

Not necesarily a guide. I've always argued against investment trusts in favour of unit trusts because ITs can gear up, and generally can get highly leveredged.

Falling share values in ITs can be severly scewed by this geared exposure and the fact some lenders might be making calls on thier loans.

Conrad

zcacmxi wrote: »

Rather than playing games gambling on "average national house prices", I prefer to follow the market closely in a smaller local area, and buy the real thing!

With you 100%.
Sinking money into funds is a step into the unknown. All those rich directors, lawyers, surveyors, consultants and other staff that all need a cut of your money.
They can over pay for consultants and get on the quiet kickbacks put inot off shore accounts etc.
As for spread betting - not for me

Much better to be close to the alotment.

stevetodd

zcacmxi wrote: »

Many, from major financial institutions to buy-to-let investors have put their money in over the past few years. They are well and truly stuck in!

Rather than playing games gambling on "average national house prices", I prefer to follow the market closely in a smaller local area, and buy the real thing!

Wouldn't that be rather foolish to buy now when you believe prices will fall 25%? If I was you I would do what I am doing and wait a while before you buy

Dithering_Dad

Conrad wrote: »

With you 100%.
Sinking money into funds is a step into the unknown. All those rich directors, lawyers, surveyors, consultants and other staff that all need a cut of your money.
They can over pay for consultants and get on the quiet kickbacks put inot off shore accounts etc.

As opposed to the line of estate agents, solicitors, valuers, mortgage providers (arrangement fees & mortgage interest), Mortgage brokers, etc. waiting for their turn at the house purchase teat. Not to mention the on-going council tax, property maintenance and insurance costs...

Actually, if you buy an Index tracker fund you pay a very small annual management charge and that's it.

stevetodd

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

As opposed to the line of estate agents, solicitors, valuers, mortgage providers (arrangement fees & mortgage interest), Mortgage brokers, etc. waiting for their turn at the house purchase teat. Not to mention the on-going council tax, property maintenance and insurance costs...

Actually, if you buy an Index tracker fund you pay a very small annual management charge and that's it.

I bought my allshare ftse tracker with Fidelity, they only charge 0.1%
of course the hard bit is for the ftse to actually rise. Like my ftse 100 tracker where I am unfortunately priced in at about 5,100, may take a bit time for that show a decent return (if ever when you consider the time, ie 2007)

Dithering_Dad

stevetodd wrote: »

I bought my allshare ftse tracker with Fidelity, they only charge 0.1%
of course the hard bit is for the ftse to actually rise. Like my ftse 100 tracker where I am unfortunately priced in at about 5,100, may take a bit time for that show a decent return (if ever when you consider the time, ie 2007)

Oh dear. A bit like buying an investment property in 2007 I guess. However, you can buy more units in your tracker fund at today's value of 4083 and lower your average. Try doing that with property

ad9898_3

StevieJ wrote: »

No the difference is interest rates are 3% not 14%.

Come on Steve, there is way more personal debt this time around, the very fact that rates are at 3% instead of 14% yet people are feeling it just as bad is testimony to how ridiculous things have got.

Last time we recovered from 14% interest rates and the recession. If rates went to 14% tomorrow, I would guess that nearly every mortgaged household in the country would be unable to pay their mortgage. The country would be in a state of anarchy.