Crash just started. 40% by mid 2009.

Really2

zcacmxi wrote: »

1) See my link above for auction results.

2) You are right. Houses selling with discounts with EA's too. Not just auctions.

3) You or I may not want to buy a flat, but they are integral to the market. Somebody selling a mansion may be reliant on the first time buyer at the bottom of the chain buying the flat!

We are discussing the current market and House Prices which is what this forum is for..

i have a family member who is selling Repos. Auctions aint moving so people lik NR have given the Green light to sell at what they can get. 25-30% off peak but it aint the norm.

They say what 50,000 repos by the end of the year. What % of all sales is that?

zcacmxi

Really2 wrote: »

Agree, we are only looking at 20% from peak (July 07) by the end of this year so 20% in 17 months.
He Expects another 25% in 7 months.:eek:

This time last year people were talking about "stability" or "modest rises". So the argument was "falls or no falls".

Atleast this year we all agree that prices are falling, and are only arguing about the extent and rate of the falls..

Really2

zcacmxi wrote: »

This time last year people were talking about "stability" or "modest rises". So the argument was "falls or no falls".

Atleast this year we all agree that prices are falling, and are only arguing about the extent and rate of the falls..

Prices had already started falling this time last year.

zcacmxi

Really2 wrote: »

Prices had already started falling this time last year.

So what? That still did not stop people arguing that they wouldn't continue to fall!

lostinrates

zcacmxi wrote: »

I used to think we'd see 20% price falls, and those predicting 40% or 50% were being over bearish.
.

I am also increasingly pessimistic/optimistic: depending wher you stand. Originally on rturning to UK we were desperat to buy. In reality we still are. The pople who talk about pent up demand, well, I am it! We were NOT forecasting any doom scenario, but were fairly convinced that the best way forward was a property we could staying in for some length of time. (minimum 5-8 years). We had looked at buying before moving abroad too, but felt that numbers didn't add up safely, despite being fairly well cushioned with deposit for the average FTB. We have held consistantly despit gloom we would buy, prepared to sit out a downturn, while job security looked good, numbrs added up for us living in the house and it was somewhere we could stay, even if we didn't like it so much when older, that we wouldn't outgrow it. We are also fairly flexible with options (living together in SE, living apart with DH renting in London etc)We have seen few properties that meet those needs yet. We had, having started looking more seriously, felt that 30% off would be a huge move in th market and the biggest we could hope for if looking or risk if we had bought. Now I'm really less sure.

Its nevr been about buying at the bottom for us, but it has been maximising value.

Dithering_Dad

Yamn, another loon from the HPC website or another !!!!!!? sock puppet. Ho hum. No news here, move along people. Don't loiter, nothing to see....

zcacmxi

I think like most people, I thought the rises would have to stop due to prices increasing faster than salaries. That was unsustainable, so could not continue.

But then, the credit crunch has spiralled in to a wider economic downturn. Recession is now likely. Job security is poor. Many 1000s of people have already been made redundant, and repos are rising.

This does not fill me with the confidence to rush out and buy..

zcacmxi

I guess there will always be people with a vested interest in a booming/rising market. Those with investments in property, or jobs in industries reliant on the housing market would be desperate to talk things up.

If I was an Estate Agent / Mortgage Broker / Conveyancer or was deep in debt having purchased properties at the peak, the threads in this forum would make uncomfortable reading!

It seems that posts describing price reductions come with plenty of links backing them up, but those talking up the market can only resort to hearsay and there own opinions. Yet another reason why I think the posts commenting on further price reductions are more credible than those against..

Pobby

The problem I see about distressed sales is it tends to set the norm as the " correct " price. For example, I work in an industry that produces consumer goods. The traditional shop is always complaining to me that they cannot match internet prices. Some of the online boys are making a tiny margin.

Joe Public sees that price as the norm and is reluctant to pay more. He doesn`t care less that the traditional retailer has far more overheads than the online lads.

Imho, people are very bargain minded right now and ( it`s a very big and ) if they can raise the money are likely to go for a repo.

In the same way that the silly" creative" mortgage deals screwed the market on the way up so distressed sales will distort the market on the way down.

zcacmxi

I completely agree. And the difference between this crash and last time is the market is more transparent. Sold prices from the Land Registry are easily available, without even a login requirement on sites like http://www.houseprices.co.uk/