Crash just started. 40% by mid 2009.

Really2

Pobby wrote: »

The problem I see about distressed sales is it tends to set the norm as the " correct " price. For example, I work in an industry that produces consumer goods. The traditional shop is always complaining to me that they cannot match internet prices. Some of the online boys are making a tiny margin.

Joe Public sees that price as the norm and is reluctant to pay more. He doesn`t care less that the traditional retailer has far more overheads than the online lads.

Imho, people are very bargain minded right now and ( it`s a very big and ) if they can raise the money are likely to go for a repo.

In the same way that the silly" creative" mortgage deals screwed the market on the way up so distressed sales will distort the market on the way down.

See my industry is different there is end of line distressed stock which is cheap but it is a case of buy it or lose it.
It may not come up again. People can not buy an equiverlent at distressed prices in I.T. You either buy it or lose out.

StevieJ

zcacmxi wrote: »

I guess there will always be people with a vested interest in a booming/rising market. Those with investments in property, or jobs in industries reliant on the housing market would be desperate to talk things up.

If I was an Estate Agent / Mortgage Broker / Conveyancer or was deep in debt having purchased properties at the peak, the threads in this forum would make uncomfortable reading!

It seems that posts describing price reductions come with plenty of links backing them up, but those talking up the market can only resort to hearsay and there own opinions. Yet another reason why I think the posts commenting on further price reductions are more credible than those against..

Do you mean links to duff newspaper items (like attached) that are just trying to sell papers, and ignoring the actual facts?
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?p=16083405#post16083405

StevieJ

zcacmxi wrote: »

I completely agree. And the difference between this crash and last time is the market is more transparent. Sold prices from the Land Registry are easily available, without even a login requirement on sites like http://www.houseprices.co.uk/

No the difference is interest rates are 3% not 14%.

Really2

zcacmxi wrote: »

It seems that posts describing price reductions come with plenty of links backing them up, but those talking up the market can only resort to hearsay and there own opinions.

Sorry could you post me the link which shows we have had 20% falls already and the one stating another 20% from Jan 09- June 09.

Going of all statistical evidence we have not had 20% UK average falls yet, but I am willing to be proved wrong.;)

dervish

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

Yamn, another loon from the HPC website or another !!!!!!? sock puppet. Ho hum. No news here, move along people. Don't loiter, nothing to see....

:rolleyes:
sorry I didnt know you were a MODERATOR now or some arbiter of what constitutes interesting reading...

Usury_up_and_wear_it_out

Why would a mortgage company want to lend at 75 - 85% loan to value today when we all expect property to fall by at least 40% ?

zcacmxi

On the Evening Standard billboards right now., and also front page of thisislondon:

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23592736-details/House+prices+drop+100%2C000+in+two+weeks/article.do

Really2

zcacmxi wrote: »

On the Evening Standard billboards right now., and also front page of thisislondon:

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23592736-details/House+prices+drop+100%2C000+in+two+weeks/article.do

Come off it statistical mate we don't all live in London.
Check LR, Halifax, Nationwide they are on sales not somebody lowering the price of their over priced london property.:rolleyes:

Dithering_Dad

dervish wrote: »

:rolleyes:
sorry I didnt know you were a MODERATOR now or some arbiter of what constitutes interesting reading...

No more than you are, dear.

Laughing_man

StevieJ wrote: »

No the difference is interest rates are 3% not 14%.

Thats one difference, however prices have managed to fall much faster this time despite historically low interest rates. I think its fairly reasonable to assume that future interest rate moves will have little overall impact on the pace and scale of house price falls. This is born out with a comparison with Japan where very low interest rates did not halt either deflation or the housing bust. To me this evidence suggests that during a crash house prices are decoupled from interest rate moves, do you agree?

20% further down in six months is a bit silly though, the data so far puts crash speed around -1.2% a month at the current level of transactions and I dont really expect that pace to increase unless transactions drop even further, and there just isn't a whole lot of downside left.