The 70% club

skap7309

StevieJ wrote: »

Master - I bow to the all knowing one.

I have just noticed that you have saved 48.6% of your target deposit, how much is that about 2k?

Why thankyou sir lol.

No. £33,000 saved so far. Not bad for a 26 year old IMHO.

StevieJ

skap7309 wrote: »

No. £33,000 saved so far. Not bad for a 26 year old IMHO.

Not bad that, Credit where credit due, what is it a deposit on Windsor Castle?

Heyman_2

Back to this 70% falls stuff again :rolleyes:

Out of curiosity, does this include the drops we've already seen since 2007 peak? I'm guessing not.

I look forward to purchasing a flat in the South East outright for £20K, should be feasible with 70 - 80% drops.

ad44downey

mitchaa wrote: »

Really, but there are only 155k more unemployed now than what there were this time last year.

Not going to make that much difference really especially when those that have lost their jobs walk into another in a short time period (The unemployment stats back this up) Continual 100k unemployed figures every month for 12 months does not equal an unemployment rate of 1.2m as you then assume all those 1.2m stay unemployed;)

You ignore fear of unemployment which is the real crucial factor not the number of unemployed. People are rightly reluctant to take on many hundreds of thousands pounds of debt when they don't know whether or not they're even going to have a job the following week

Ewarwoowar2

mitchaa wrote: »

Remember folks we are currently 'only' showing just uner 15% and its been gloomy for 1 year already. 70% is going to take a quite a few more years.

Im off to bed now, will stir the pot again in the morning

Have a look at this graph from the BBC website:





It shows that property prices only started falling (i.e. the YOY went negative) about 6 and a half moths ago. In that short period of time, prices have fallen 14 - 15%. In this period redundancies had only just begun. It's going to get worse over the next 12 months.

If prices continue to fall at the same rate, by the end of 2009 prices will have fallen by 45%. If HPC accelerates due to recession/unemployment the figure will be higher.

BTW no one has countered my logical explanation why prices could fall by up to seventy percent on page two of this thread. The only counter arguement has been some nonsense about property in Scotland and "IT WON'T HAPPEN".

StevieJ

Ewarwoowar2 wrote: »

Have a look at this graph from the BBC website:





It shows that property prices only started falling (i.e. the YOY went negative) about 6 and a half moths ago. In that short period of time, prices have fallen 14 - 15%. In this period redundancies had only just begun. It's going to get worse over the next 12 months.

If prices continue to fall at the same rate, by the end of 2009 prices will have fallen by 45%. If HPC accelerates due to recession/unemployment the figure will be higher.

BTW no one has countered my logical explanation why prices could fall by up to seventy percent on page two of this thread. The only counter arguement has been some nonsense about property in Scotland and "IT WON'T HAPPEN".

Starter for 10, interest rates.

Cannon_Fodder

I think the OP put his finger on it...some time ago he was ridiculed for saying -70%...others were ridiculed for -50%, -30%, -10%.

Now -30% is looking pretty much odds-on. With the usual opponents of course. -40% not that unlikely with overshoot.

So, while -70% is a pretty extreme end of the spectrum imo, it would be foolhardy to dismiss it out of hand in such unusual - indeed unique - times.

We have almost no idea where this will all end, having both the credit crunch and a good old-fashioned recession to cope with, not to mention the credit explosion having to contract.


On a point for Mitchaa; as you love stating its about AVERAGES...yes, its is.

For your Scottish figures to be +0.1% overall, apart from East Dunbartonshire and some other areas in the +ves, you also have to have substantial parts in the -ve to reach that HUGE +0.1%...figures like

Location Sept 07 Sept 08 %
Unallocated 170,650 151,358 -11.3
Argyll and Bute 168,049 155,390 -7.5

Dundee City 134,542 124,422 -7.5

Glasgow City 150,183 139,554 -7.1

South Ayrshire 167,386 156,141 -6.7

Clackman'shire 151,394 141,615 -6.5

from http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/2008_11_release.pdf

Not 15% granted; we know Scotland started later. Makes the point on the trend and speed of change though.

Paul_N_4

I sense fear with the over use of the ROTFL smiley on this thread.

It still amazes me that should there be house price falls on this scale, people think it would happen in a vacuum. Everything would remain as we know it now, we'd have an average wage of £25,000, low unemployment, low interest rates, etc.

Lets make it quite clear that 70% falls in house prices are not impossible. It happened in another country that faced very similar circumstances to us not long ago. Unlikely, I'd agree, and as a country we'd have to be in a whole heap of crap, including high unemployment, and in the grip of long lasting deflation.

One obvious scenario is if investors turn on the UK (more than they're already doing) and abandon the pound. Gordon wouldn't have the money to sustain his borrowing and spending. He'd either has to raise rates to encourage investment in the pound, or be forced to raise rates after being bailed out by the IMF. And this when in the grip of deflation mostly outside the government's control. That is not an impossible scenario. Britain went bankrupt before. We can only hope that we DO in fact do more in this country than max credit cards down the high street and sell expensive houses to each other.

But it is amusing seeing all the rolling smileys out because I seem to remember them being deployed when people mentioned falls in house prices of 20%. :rotfl: (couldn't resist).

ad44downey

Paul_N wrote: »

I sense fear with the over use of the ROTFL smiley on this thread.


.

I think StevieJ's keyboard is faulty. Every 2nd keystroke he makes produces a smilie. He'd want to take it back to the carboot sale and ask for his money back!

neverdespairgirl

My personal view?

I don't doubt some places, particularly newbuild flats, will go down 70% from peak. I think, barring unforeseen catastophe, 70% falls on average are not at all likely.

I think 50% at most from peak, probably more like 40% from peak to trough. But I don't know, this is purely my opinion, not stuff handed down on stone tablets from Mount Sinai.