The 70% club

StevieJ

Paul_N wrote: »

Neither do I.

What do you think it will be? top to bottom Aug07 to ? Land Registry.

Paul_N_4

StevieJ wrote: »

What do you think it will be? top to bottom Aug07 to ? Land Registry.

No chance, but I'm sure those that are waiting for a bottom will have plenty of time to know when its arrived. But house prices aren't one of my top priorities so haven't bothered calculating a likely overall drop.

Heyman_2

dervish wrote: »

anyone who dismisses this out of hand is very very STUPID.

Oh OK then :rolleyes:

Any takers for 100% falls? I look forward to putting my house in the window of my local Estate Agent for £0, at least the Estate Agent fees would then be a bit more reasonable (i.e. £0) :rolleyes:

Heyman_2

StevieJ wrote: »

Hey don't get me wrong I would love them to drop 70% (apart from the effect on people who have bought recently, I would feel sorry for them). Just don't see it.

We need to make the distinction between '70% drops' (which to me says scattered drops mainly on new-build flats and other property that was grossly over-valued at peak), and '70% average drop' (which sounds like economic armaggedon - i.e. a house bought at 200K now only worth 60K on the open market).

The latter would be a complete catastrophe and would be representive of total economic failure as it would mean the market was still stagnant even at that mid-1970s level of market pricing, despite over 30 years of inflation since then.

Most of the people posting here would be out of a job, it would be economic retraction of the like never seen before.

You also have to bear in mind what '70% average drop' actually means. That means that some properties will be lower than that, but some will be more. So you're actually saying that in some areas houses could drop by, say, 80%. :rolleyes:

Does anyone seriously think that this scenario will happen? If you do then when is this going to happen by (roughly)? Next year? Next week?

greggymagic

dervish

"anyone who dismisses this out of hand is very very STUPID"

Reeeeaaaallly. . . to get your average 70 percent drop you would need yoy falls of 20 percent for 5 YEARS and another year of 10 percent falls.

Why is it stupid to dismiss this?

Heyman_2

greggymagic wrote: »

dervish

"anyone who dismisses this out of hand is very very STUPID"

Reeeeaaaallly. . . to get your average 70 percent drop you would need yoy falls of 20 percent for 5 YEARS and another year of 10 percent falls.

Why is it stupid to dismiss this?

I think you mean 3 years at 20% and then 1 year at 10%, but I agree with your point. Not just stupid, mind, but very very STUPID apparently.

greggymagic

Heyman

No I really do mean 20 percent for 5 Years and another year of 10 percent mate.

Thats what would be needed for your 70 percent average fall.

greggymagic

3 years at 20% and then 1 year at 10% would only give you a 53.92 percent fall

And when I say "your" I don't mean you personally I mean one's average

:-)

Heyman_2

Ahhhh yes, sorry I was having a blonde moment. :rotfl:

Yes you are totally correct and I am totally wrong! Does make it even more unbelievable though doesn't it?

greggymagic

:-)

Unbelievable Yes. . . So we must both be stupid to dismiss it out of hand!!

It's not Impossible.... just very very very very very very very very very very unlikely...... very