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# 'Where will base rates be in six months?' poll discussion

24 replies 6.4K views
Former MSE
975 Posts
Poll between 10 - 17 Nov 2008

Where will base rates be in six months?

Last week the Bank of England cut interest rates by 1.5 percentage points to 3%. The idea is to stimulate the economy, making borrowing cheaper and saving less desirable, to encourage people to spend.

Where do you THINK the base rate will be in May 09 (to the nearest half point)?

A. 0% - 1% (117 votes)
B. 0.5% - 2% (138 votes)
C. 1.0% - 7% (593 votes)
D. 1.5% - 10% (838 votes)
E. 2.0% - 27% (2153 votes)
F. 2.5% - 17% (1416 votes)
G. 3.0% - 12% (980 votes)
H. 3.5% - 7% (600 votes)
I. 4% - 7% (566 votes)
J. 4.5% - 3% (278 votes)
K. 5% - 2% (178 votes)
L. 5.5% - 1% (53 votes)
M. 6% - 1% (44 votes)
N. Over 6% - 2% (144 votes)

This vote has now closed, but you can still click 'post reply' to discuss below. Thanks

«13

## Replies

• Forumite
178 Posts
Forumite
So does 3.75 get rounded up to 4.0 or down to 3.5 ? Specify!
• Forumite
123 Posts
Forumite
> So does 3.75 get rounded up to 4.0 or down to 3.5 ? Specify!

No need to specify - the exact mid point in a range always rounds UP - that is the standard maths rule.
• MoneySaving Expert
8.3K Posts
Forumite
mau408 wrote: »
So does 3.75 get rounded up to 4.0 or down to 3.5 ? Specify!

If you think exactly 3.75% that's a fairly accurate prediction.

I'd suggest you either

A. Round up as mathmatical convention dictates.
B. Decide whether if its not 3.75% is your second choice 3.5% or 4% and go with that.

Martin

PS to do every 0.25% would've made it a cumbersome poll.
Martin Lewis, Money Saving Expert.
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• 12.3K Posts
I predict -5% with fines and prison sentances for people who dare to save and refuse to spend, along with a new "consumer police" to arrest people who refuse to shop.

Biscuit tins will be outlawed in case people use them to stuff cash in them and get away with 0%, and all biscuits will be sold in packets.
I wonder why it is, that young men are always cautioned against bad girls. Anyone can handle a bad girl. It's the good girls men should be warned against.-David Niven
• Forumite
178 Posts
Forumite
MSE_Martin wrote: »
If you think exactly 3.75% that's a fairly accurate prediction.

I'd suggest you either

A. Round up as mathematical convention dictates.
B. Decide whether if its not 3.75% is your second choice 3.5% or 4% and go with that.

Martin

PS to do every 0.25% would've made it a cumbersome poll.

'Cumberstone poll' yes I totally agree to this, but that's not what I'm getting at.
I am sorry to disagree with you all on your assumptions but I thought it would be sensible for the writer to state the method of determining the nearest not to assume everyone will round up. It does not say 'round up' which the author assumes and it does not state 'truncate' it states 'nearest'. I'm probably being pedantic.

'Standard maths rules' - hmmmm axioms!

See the problem comes when you make assumptions. Both of you seemed to assumed that 3.75% is my guess as I included it in my post. It was merely an example.
• Forumite
397 Posts
The problem in the current climate is not going to be solved with lower interest rates but getting the banks to get 'liquid' with all the cash that has been pumped into them by the government. We need some folks in the government to make sure the banks get this bail-out money flowing again into the system.

However, what we are seeing in the USA as well as the UK is that banks are using the money to repair their balance sheets and not lending as they should.

It doesn't matter how low the interest rates go, if folks can't get 5p out of their bank, what's the point?
• Forumite
178 Posts
Forumite
teddyco -

This is forever a problem and although I'm not particularly good at karaoke but the song 'There's a hole in my bucket delilah!' springs to mind!

Banks lend more, banks go bust, banks stop lending, people want banks to lend, banks say no, banks see other banks saying yes, banks want a slice, banks lend more, .....

I've probably got a few lifecycle stages missed out but the idea is to not be on the train at the wrong time, but to get off at the right stop (fix in your rates/contracts) or at least get into a carriage that doesn't get hit as hard. But then there's always the chance that someone will want to move to the front of the train to get higher returns in place of risk of being hit.

Then there's the speed of the train to contend with, and basically the quicker government turnarounds banks spending the quicker we run into the next phase. Who knows how long it is going to take for the train to meet the next station or whether the fuel the government provides is going to be effective?

Not everyone wins all the time, I think the best idea is never to lose.
• Forumite
10 Posts
It's dear Lisa! dear mau408, dear mau408, dear mau408.
It's dear Lisa! dear mau408, dear mau408. Dear Lisa! :rotfl:
• Forumite
102 Posts
Forumite
I reckon it will still go down a little further (hence I voted for 2.5%), then (hopefully for me!) get back up...
• Forumite
178 Posts
Forumite
Thanks Pagcu. Singing is not really one of my finest traits but I do like my weetabix! :whistle:
This discussion has been closed.
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