Property prices will have stabilised by this time next year. Yes or NO?

globalds

In General it will stabilise.
But regions or specific types of property may well be declining for a few years.Depends on how soon the market reacts.
A full blown depression could well change my opinion ..Although I do think the one thing different about this recession than others ,is it's speed .
It may well be fast in and fast to correct .

luvpump

Kez100 wrote: »

We have to get buyers and sellers together. Buyers are sat .I reckon (and I am usually wrong on everything - ask the kids) we will see continued big drop through 2009 going into 2010 at 30% down. We will see a spring bounce in 2010 (as the more wealthy FTBs jump on the bandwagon). As we enter the latter end of 2010 it will drop again! Finally settling at 30-40% off peak for a few years before taking off again.......

Actually, I think that is what happened last time, so no imagination on my behalf at all!

I think thats a fair analysis, It will be AT LEAST 25% peak to bottom, more likely more once this Nasty recession takes bite from January onward ...

StevieJ

globalds wrote: »

In General it will stabilise.
But regions or specific types of property may well be declining for a few years.Depends on how soon the market reacts.
A full blown depression could well change my opinion ..Although I do think the one thing different about this recession than others ,is it's speed .
It may well be fast in and fast to correct .

Yup, I agree.

monkeymaster

fimonkey wrote: »

However I'm now concerned that the fall in interest rates will promote a glut of ppl wanting to take on mortgages again,

Firstly lower interest rates aren't being reflected in mortgage rates as banks are readjusting their risk premiums and are basically pocketting the cash!

And secondly banks aren't going to go back to lending 100% + again for a long, long time. They're much more choosey who they lend to so there won't be a mad rush to buy houses.

Mortgage lending and approvals are well down on what they were at the peak of the boom and that isn't going to change overnight. These figures tend to be a leading indicator for prices so until they start creeping back up towards 2007 levels then prices are only heading one way. I certainly can't see prices rising in the next 12 months and probably not for the 12 months after that either to be honest.

Edited to add...

We've had one of the biggest booms in history and those expecting things to suddenly go back to how they were are living in a fantasy world. House prices need to find their correct level which is much lower than they are today - at least another 15% down is nailed on in my opinion.

mr.broderick

Hope they stabilise, put offers on 2 houses today, expected the ea's to be ringing me back within minutes, as yet no calls back. Kind of weird.

beingjdc

They will be stabilising, but not stabilised.

We're down about 15% off the peak price now. We'll be down another 15% by this time next year. After that, probably no more than another 5-10% to go. 35-40% off peak altogether.

globalds

monkeymaster wrote: »

Edited to add...

We've had one of the biggest booms in history and those expecting things to suddenly go back to how they were are living in a fantasy world. House prices need to find their correct level which is much lower than they are today - at least another 15% down is nailed on in my opinion.

There are many sound reasons why the economy performed consistently well over the last ten years or so.Like property itself ...UK was seen as a good place to invest.
Any body putting money in Icelandic banks in the near future ,That money will want to find a home to roost,even if interest rates are lower ,Safety may be higher valued

Yes a bubble has burst ...How overpriced it was is yet to be determined.
The present shut-down in development of new build will surely put pressure back on property.
My concern for first time buyers is that I think they may be stung by how I think things will develop .
With the bottom falling out of new build apartments they will be seen as the perfect first step ...Developers will soon realise that money lost on a cheap apartment will soon be recouped by extortionate service charges .Beware offers that seem to good to be true ,Look at the small print to see the percentage they can raise charges by

carolt

fimonkey wrote: »

Hmm completely see your point, is there an alternative place I can post this where there are still plenty of 'bulls'? Once upon a time this board had its fair share of bulls and bears, but not so sure its representative any more.

Fascinating replies so far, please keep em coming.

My own personal interest in this is as a potential FTB, I keep seeing the odd bargain and have to physically sit on my hands to stop me phoning for a viewing... to put an end to this I've locked my deposit away in a one year bond with a 6.98% interest rate, seeing as I expect interest rates to fal too.

However I'm now concerned that the fall in interest rates will promote a glut of ppl wanting to take on mortgages again, plus less forced sellers = rise in house prices and I'll miss the boat. There is also a pent up supply and demand issue in the UK, so I expect once one person begins to buy, the rest of the sheeple will follow too. The only thing I can see holding this back at the moment is the lack of credit.... So for my own selfish sake, i hope this lack of credit supply lasts longer than 12 months.

Ask yourself why there aren't many property 'bulls' areound on here or indeed anywhere these days?

Only when you've answered that question to your satisfaction, need you wory about 'missing the boat'.

If you're really worried about 'missing the boat, then clearly you should buy now! ASAP!

Personally, I'm convinced that the boat is sinking, and am quite happy to wait for the next one.

But if you think the bulls are the sane, rational ones, then go ahead! It's only your money you stand to lose.

amcluesent

Taxes need to rise 5p-10p to pay for Clown's dodgy debt tsunami, regardless of who wins the election. That's going to pauperise anyone silly enough to stay in England while waged.

Bank's can't pass on any BoE rate reductions as they've sold themselves to the Sovereign Wealth funds who are demanding 10%+ returns. Banks will have to bleed white their 'customers' to service these obligations.

Credit will only be available to AAA prospects anyway as banks fear loss of capital, so LTV ratios will collapse and 25%+ deposits will be the norm.

Back-to-backs up t'North will again change hands for £500 in the pub.

mr.broderick

carolt wrote: »

Ask yourself why there aren't many property 'bulls' areound on here or indeed anywhere these days?

Only when you've answered that question to your satisfaction, need you wory about 'missing the boat'.

If you're really worried about 'missing the boat, then clearly you should buy now! ASAP!

Personally, I'm convinced that the boat is sinking, and am quite happy to wait for the next one.

But if you think the bulls are the sane, rational ones, then go ahead! It's only your money you stand to lose.

I'll answer that...All been bullied off.