Property prices will have stabilised by this time next year. Yes or NO?

Cleaver

brit1234 wrote: »

PROPERTY BOTTOM - History tells us that property stagnates for years at the bottom, there will be no rapid rises at the bottom, don't rush.:think:

I ask out of genuine curiousity Brit - at what point do you begin to question this way of thinking? The rise in prices since the bottom of the market in February have been what I would describe as 'rapid'. Do you base your opinion on pure 'economic fundementals' or do you start to take in to account people's seemingly unshakable desire to get their hands on a property?

the_ash_and_the_oak

Cleaver wrote: »

I ask out of genuine curiousity Brit - at what point do you begin to question this way of thinking? The rise in prices since the bottom of the market in February have been what I would describe as 'rapid'. Do you base your opinion on pure 'economic fundementals' or do you start to take in to account people's seemingly unshakable desire to get their hands on a property?

its interesting. but would raise three points on this,

1) I'd only take into account people unshakeable desire for property if I thought this was a variable that changed - but imo its because its unshakeable that its sorta less of a factor - ie it was pretty damn high in september 2008 too!

2) The rises since feb have been pretty fast - what do you think about this? I'm not saying its a bull-trap (idk really tbh kinda feel a bull-trap would maybe be marked by different volumes than this) but for those that are vehementy it isn't - how long would an actual housing bull-trap last in your opinion? In something as slow moving as housing it would surely have to be longer than 6 months?

3) its actually the 2009 rises going against the idea that prices should spend some time at the that makes me less sure we've seen the bottom, not more

bernard_shaw

Of course house prices haven't seen the bottom yet.

chucky

Cleaver wrote: »

I ask out of genuine curiousity Brit - at what point do you begin to question this way of thinking? The rise in prices since the bottom of the market in February have been what I would describe as 'rapid'. Do you base your opinion on pure 'economic fundementals' or do you start to take in to account people's seemingly unshakable desire to get their hands on a property?

i asked him the same question a few weeks ago about his footer

PROPERTY BOTTOM - History tells us that property stagnates for years at the bottom, there will be no rapid rises at the bottom, don't rush.:think:

he's only taking the 1990s HPC as his example - he's ignored the 1980s HPC which were much shorter and the 1970s HPC that was masked by inflation.

you have to get used to his innacuracies, just like his posts lots of soundbites little substance and even less truth.